Basketball over / under system

citdl-appst over 136

sam-furm over 114.5

but-det over 117

clest-illch over 127

midtn-den over 119

webst-nocol over 138.5

sclar-sd over 115.5

pac-ucriv over 115

wgton-cal under 152

Quote Originally Posted by calinreddog:

Tonight picks (only NCAAB):

 

citdl-appst over 136

sam-furm over 114.5

but-det over 117

clest-illch over 127

midtn-den over 119

webst-nocol over 138.5

sclar-sd over 115.5

pac-ucriv over 115

wgton-cal under 152

frsno-hav over 132

 

I am 8-1 right now and still have one more left to play (frsno-hav).

I'd love to make it 9-1...

Yes, you're right, sorry.

I was expecting to hit 6 out of 10 and I was just going to write to you that my capping method does 60% of the job and the rest is up to Lady Luck...

Thank you, I hope to keep it over 60%.

There's no need for a spreadsheet.

Just add the numbers and use your logic when comparing them.

The key to good under play is basically the defensive number and the key to good over plays are both offensive and defensive. There's no strict rule about differences. For NCAAB especially the differences become significant as a percentage of the total set by the bookie. Add the smallest numbers and the biggest numbers, compare them with the total line and draw a conclusion. Based on the differences found are you willing to risk an amount of money on that?

Sorry, but there's no strict rule or complicated spreadsheet to do that.

No I don't use that anymore.

Take a look at my post above.

Let's take a look at tor-no tonight, total line set at 185. Take the four numbers (points for and against for both teams) and arrange starting with the smallest number and finishing with the biggest. Something like that:

91.0   95.4   96.2   100.2

Add the smallest 91.0+95.4=186.4-185=1.4

Add the biggest 96.2+100.2=196.2-185=11.2

If we add the 2 differences 1.4+11.2=12.6 points over the total line, that's kind of 6.8% over the line. A small difference but I consider it enough to risk 1 unit on over, so I'll take over 185.

Avoid games of rivalry or games where there are strong motivational factors involved. Avoid extremely high totals (set around 230).

No spreadsheet needed.