Basketball over / under system

I get all thestats from here, Covers.com, scores and odds.

For loymd-siena:(https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncb/matchups/g6_summary_10.html)

loymd away: 65.2 for 71.9 against

siena home: 78.2 for 64.7 against

We should expect an average of 140 points. When I wagered I got 145.5 line so -5.5 difference.

NHL

ny away 2.38 for 3.04 against

nj home 3.12 for 2.69 against, average=5.61. At an expected average of 5.61 goals / game the fair odds should be -104 for under 5.5 and +104 for over 5.5. I didn't find some good odds so yes it's no bet for me.

mon-cal average is 5.95 that means fair odds -120 for over and +120 for under.

For mon-cal game I don't have value for total at my bookie and I'll take Calgary to win in regulation time (odds offer value for this bet). But I'll take the over at NYR-NJ. At the actual odds is a good bet (I have +115 at my bookie) and Rangers on the moneyline.

For NBA, yes I'll take the under 211 at PHX-PHI game.

Good luck!

Yes you should start tracking that starting today 'cause I didn't ().

You're right, something like that could be very useful. Saturday I worked too long to compute the averages so I haven't kept record of anything...

In doing some back check from earlier this year and last year for NCAA, this system works better earlier in the season.  One reason could be that most teams are playing their 2nd game against conference opponents, and the lines are much sharper.

Any thoughts?

Take it (NY-GS)!

You're doing just fine!

It has become kind of boring to me to post picks every day so I won't do it anymore.

I think I have a system here. For NCAAB I picked 118 games and the results were 70-48 and that means 59%. It would have been nice to have 1000 games but I think the system will continue to work around 57-58%.

System is simple:

Write all games (NBA and NCAAB) scheduled for one day. Compute the average points we should expect and that is:

(PF home + PA home + PF away + PA away) / 2.

From all the games scheduled pick 5 for NBA and 5 for NCAAB with the biggest differences between the average we expect and the total line listed by the bookie. Of course, the first condition would be to have at least 5 games scheduled that day.

The basic assumption for this system is that in most of the cases the points tend to their average value, so we are not supposed to make a mistake when we pick totals that are too far from their average value.

No secret, nothing special, just common sense. It's normal to be that way.

There's no need for hours of work, information and judgements about a particular matchup. All you need it's 4 numbers and less than a minute to compute their mean.

That should produce over time a 57-58% success rate and that means profit in the long run.

Good luck!

That's correct, you need WAS away points and ATL home points. You got it right.