Basketball over / under system

Completely understand and you answered my question about where the percentages were coming from.

Anything below 5% should be considered a no go. Then, we should just use common sense.

I completely understand. I had the same numbers you did for the GSW game. It was skewed for the under, but I knew deep down those teams had no defense and it would have a chance at breaking the scoring record for the NBA all time. I stayed away because I had to see it. That game wasn't to be considered normal from the beginning. Both those teams only play one element of the game and that's offense! LOL

Okay, I did the math for the UNC vs Duke game. The numbers are staggering and I feel like I've done something wrong.

This is how its laid out. Let me know what you guys think:

Average Points FOR away
87
Average Points AGAINST away
70
Average points FOR home
83
Average points AGAINST home
59

=299

Total Expected Points = 299/2 = 149.5
Sportsbook O/U Line - 156
Differential of 6.5

Total Offense = 87 + 83 = 170
Total Defense = 83 + 59 = 129

Total Offense/Total Defense = 1.32

1.32 is over 1 therefor its an offensive style game?
Therefor:
170x1.32 = 224.03
224.03 = 68.03 points above the Sportsbook O/U line which is 156:
68.04/156 = 43.61 differential margin

There for you would bet the OVER?!

I ran the same thing with the Defensive numbers instead of the offense. Here it is:

Total Defensive points x (Total Offense/Total Defense)
So: 1.32 x 129 = 170

Defensive Differential from the sports book is:
170 - 156 = 14
14 divided by the sportsbook projection of 156 = 8.97%

If we go by the percentages using that, we are typically sticking to games over 5%

170 is still quite higher even if its a defensive game?? So therefor it is to my conclusion that this game will go well over 156?

If you just do our original equation being:
tot.pt.for.away + tot.pt.ag.away + tot.pt.for.home +tot.pt.ag.home

The total expected (as mentioned before) = 149.5
which is 6.5 below the o/u for the book.

Thats a 4.17% favoring the under.


Thats what made me confused. If we are just doing total points and not that other stuff... Then this would be considered a NO PLAY because its under the 5%?

No offense guys but I think you're trying to complicate what I was trying to simplify the last 2 weeks...

But if you like it the hard way, good luck...

i just picked unc by the spread :-/

i put too much money on unc and oklahoma tonight, now im scared :-/ lol rookie money management mistake.

Jho, if you could send me your picks you did today, I'd love to track them! Just answer my friend request and private message me them. I'd really appreciate it!

this is amazing...Good job calinreddog.
Any system that produces 56% or over is fuckin sweet.

Whats the tweak calin?  I have NCAA going about 40% over the past week(if you played all games above 3% difference).  Even above 6% difference was below 50% over the past week.  Let me know what changes you are making please... thanks for your help. 

[Quote: Originally Posted by jhonea999]

Whats the tweak calin?  I have NCAA going about 40% over the past week(if you played all games above 3% difference).  Even above 6% difference was below 50% over the past week.  Let me know what changes you are making please... thanks for your help.  [/Quot

The tweak I was talking about it's a mistake. I just realised it.

Forget about it!

Sorry!

 

Jhonea man I told you, don't take too many plays. Forget about % under or over the total lines.

Just take the 5 games or the 3 games with the biggest differences. Otherwise you're making it too complicated with percents and you will lose. Trust me, I've already been there.

Stick to a decent number of plays ( 3, 5 or at most 7).

For tonight just take the 3 games with the biggest differences and see what happens: you have 4 possibles outcomes, 0-3, 3-0, 2-1 or 1-2, leaving aside the push.

Good luck!

Calin,

TX and TX A-M numbers using wagertracker stats
tex: 69.3 off away  65.9 def away
a-m: 70.6 off home  62.3 def home
avg is 134.05 for the over
I've been following since the beginning. I've been making some good $$ thanks to you and everyone here. Now I want to contribute

also taking a-m and the points at home at 1.5
a-m scores about 1 point more and defends about 3 points better while playing at home...home crowd is huge in this rival game. Texas is my favorite college team...... but not tonight

 

I only played about 1 a day of NCAA games.  Just followed and kept track of all the games above 3% for the past week.  Even the higher percentage games (above 6%) aren't doing well, 46.2% over the past week.  Had you taken the top five plays over the past week and top three on slow nights you would have gone about 7-15, (32%) for NCAA.           

play of the day

La Tech at New Mex St.

136.5 taking the over

la Tech avg off away 60.4  avg def away 67.2
n mex st. avg off home 81.2  avg def home 70.5

add the both team off avgs or def avgs and both totals go over

betting big on the over