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Basketball over / under system

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Posted: #126
One place to find all of the numbers is teamrankings.com
 
 
 
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Posted: #127
thanks JBRENT95
 
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Posted: #128
Just so you know you can find all the numbers you need on covers...
 
Go to NBA, Matchups, select the matchup tab of the game you are looking at, then there should be a home/away link.  Then it will give you all the stats for both teams home or away depending on which they are for that matchup. 
 
Jabroni... sorry I didn't see your post til after the game but you were correct about the LAL/OKC game and it ended up hitting right around there.  Its a pretty simple calc, but I would us some instinct as well.  For instance the GSW/NYN game tonight:  I took the bet based on this system, but had a feeling I shouldn't have (this system showed it to be under by 17 points or so).  It ended up being over by 30!  Reasons I shouldn't have taken the bet: its 2 teams that don't really have much to lose, 2 teams with no defense, 2 teams with a pretty decent offense.  Oh well on taking the bet but don't just look at the numbers.  Also look at the difference in points as being a percentage of the total line from your bookie. 
 
So for instance the LAL/NYN game I got an average of 206.25 and the line I had was 218.5 so 12.25 points under... 12.25/218.5 = 5.94% under the total.  That is pretty high and ended up hitting.  I believe from now on I am going to avoid anything less than 4% difference.  The reason the percentage is a good thing to look at is for college since those lines are so much smaller normally.... 
 
Anyways, sorry I am tired and I may have rambled but I hope this helps.  If not let me know what questions you have.  I have been following this system since the beginning so I think I have a decent handle on it. 
 
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Posted: #129
Completely understand and you answered my question about where the percentages were coming from.

Anything below 5% should be considered a no go. Then, we should just use common sense.

I completely understand. I had the same numbers you did for the GSW game. It was skewed for the under, but I knew deep down those teams had no defense and it would have a chance at breaking the scoring record for the NBA all time. I stayed away because I had to see it. That game wasn't to be considered normal from the beginning. Both those teams only play one element of the game and that's offense! LOL
 
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Posted: #130
Okay, I did the math for the UNC vs Duke game. The numbers are staggering and I feel like I've done something wrong.

This is how its laid out. Let me know what you guys think:

Average Points FOR away
87
Average Points AGAINST away
70
Average points FOR home
83
Average points AGAINST home
59

=299

Total Expected Points = 299/2 = 149.5
Sportsbook O/U Line - 156
Differential of 6.5

Total Offense = 87 + 83 = 170
Total Defense = 83 + 59 = 129

Total Offense/Total Defense = 1.32

1.32 is over 1 therefor its an offensive style game?
Therefor:
170x1.32 = 224.03
224.03 = 68.03 points above the Sportsbook O/U line which is 156:
68.04/156 = 43.61 differential margin

There for you would bet the OVER?!

I ran the same thing with the Defensive numbers instead of the offense. Here it is:

Total Defensive points x (Total Offense/Total Defense)
So: 1.32 x 129 = 170

Defensive Differential from the sports book is:
170 - 156 = 14
14 divided by the sportsbook projection of 156 = 8.97%

If we go by the percentages using that, we are typically sticking to games over 5%

170 is still quite higher even if its a defensive game?? So therefor it is to my conclusion that this game will go well over 156?

If you just do our original equation being:
tot.pt.for.away + tot.pt.ag.away + tot.pt.for.home +tot.pt.ag.home

The total expected (as mentioned before) = 149.5
which is 6.5 below the o/u for the book.

Thats a 4.17% favoring the under.


Thats what made me confused. If we are just doing total points and not that other stuff... Then this would be considered a NO PLAY because its under the 5%?
 
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Posted: #131

No offense guys but I think you're trying to complicate what I was trying to simplify the last 2 weeks...

But if you like it the hard way, good luck...

 
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Posted: #132
Yeah Jabroni,
 
That is way more complicated than what im doing.  I stop at the point where you have the 6.5 point differential.  I have an under bet on this game.  My cut off is at 4% on weds and sat to limit the amount of games I am betting on.  You can set it at 5% and you will only be on 10 to 15 games tonight.  I am on 23 between NBA and NCAA tonight.  If you think about the DUKE/NC game as well, it is two top teams, a bitter rivalry, two of the top defenses in the nation.  Plus with the spanking DUKE took against CLEM who knows if they will even be in the game which will drive the total down more if NC is up by 20 at the end of the game.  But then again this is why they call it gambling, I could be totally off about all of this but thats the good thing about the system, even if DUKE/NC losses, i still have plenty of other chances to get near 60% tonight.       
 
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Posted: #133
i just picked unc by the spread :-/

i put too much money on unc and oklahoma tonight, now im scared :-/ lol rookie money management mistake.
 
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Posted: #134
Like the OU pick
 
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Posted: #135
Jho, if you could send me your picks you did today, I'd love to track them! Just answer my friend request and private message me them. I'd really appreciate it!
 
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Posted: #136
Sorry Jabroni,
 
I didn't get that message til just now.  I had 24 picks overall today so rather than type them all out, send me your email on the message system here and I'll send you the spreadsheet I have going.  By the way I was 13 and 11 (54%) on the day between NBA and NCAA.  Using 4% as my minimum.  Had I used 6% as my minimum I would have gone 8 and 5 (61.5%).
 
Good hit on the OU and UNC game!!!!
 
By the way I was partially right in my ramblings about my thoughts on the UNC game, the part about UNC spanking them!  That was the only thing I was right about but who's counting! haha
 
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Posted: #137
jhonea - could you email me a copy of the spreadsheet? 
 
I'll try to send you a PM.
 
thx
 
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Posted: #138
How about a little tweak at my formula?
I'll post tomorrow NCAAB over/under picks to see how it works...
 
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Posted: #139
this is amazing...Good job calinreddog.
Any system that produces 56% or over is fuckin sweet.
 
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Posted: #140
16.02.09
 
NCAAB
 
pit-uconn under 136
can-loymd over 133
maris-stpet over 125
charl-appst under 153.5
tex-txam under 131
 
 
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Posted: #141
Whats the tweak calin?  I have NCAA going about 40% over the past week(if you played all games above 3% difference).  Even above 6% difference was below 50% over the past week.  Let me know what changes you are making please... thanks for your help. 
 
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Posted: #142
[Quote: Originally Posted by jhonea999]

Whats the tweak calin?  I have NCAA going about 40% over the past week(if you played all games above 3% difference).  Even above 6% difference was below 50% over the past week.  Let me know what changes you are making please... thanks for your help.  [/Quot

The tweak I was talking about it's a mistake. I just realised it.

Forget about it!

Sorry!

 

 
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Posted: #143

Jhonea man I told you, don't take too many plays. Forget about % under or over the total lines.

Just take the 5 games or the 3 games with the biggest differences. Otherwise you're making it too complicated with percents and you will lose. Trust me, I've already been there.

Stick to a decent number of plays ( 3, 5 or at most 7).

For tonight just take the 3 games with the biggest differences and see what happens: you have 4 possibles outcomes, 0-3, 3-0, 2-1 or 1-2, leaving aside the push.

Good luck!

 
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Posted: #144
Calin,

TX and TX A-M numbers using wagertracker stats
tex: 69.3 off away  65.9 def away
a-m: 70.6 off home  62.3 def home
avg is 134.05 for the over
I've been following since the beginning. I've been making some good $$ thanks to you and everyone here. Now I want to contribute
 
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Posted: #145
also taking a-m and the points at home at 1.5
a-m scores about 1 point more and defends about 3 points better while playing at home...home crowd is huge in this rival game. Texas is my favorite college team...... but not tonight
 
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Posted: #146
Quote Originally Posted by calinreddog:

Jhonea man I told you, don't take too many plays. Forget about % under or over the total lines.

Just take the 5 games or the 3 games with the biggest differences. Otherwise you're making it too complicated with percents and you will lose. Trust me, I've already been there.

Stick to a decent number of plays ( 3, 5 or at most 7).

For tonight just take the 3 games with the biggest differences and see what happens: you have 4 possibles outcomes, 0-3, 3-0, 2-1 or 1-2, leaving aside the push.

Good luck!

 

I only played about 1 a day of NCAA games.  Just followed and kept track of all the games above 3% for the past week.  Even the higher percentage games (above 6%) aren't doing well, 46.2% over the past week.  Had you taken the top five plays over the past week and top three on slow nights you would have gone about 7-15, (32%) for NCAA.           

 
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Posted: #147
play of the day

La Tech at New Mex St.

136.5 taking the over

la Tech avg off away 60.4  avg def away 67.2
n mex st. avg off home 81.2  avg def home 70.5

add the both team off avgs or def avgs and both totals go over

betting big on the over
 
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Posted: #148
system really works
 
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Posted: #149
Looks promising    Will keep tabs on your picks. 
 
 
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Posted: #150
Cant help but post here if its working great hope it continues...
 
From what I saw of the formula almost all teams with winning records will have a higher pts  scored vs points against and that makes the offensive minded or a offensive team...
 
Teams with losing records will have vice versa...
 
So with your formula your going to expect to much from winners and not enough from losers (points wise)
 
But like I said if its working thats great but personally I dont think the system holds water
 
 
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