College Football: A system to cosider

I bet  4 sports - CFB, CBB, NFL and MLB.  For every sport, I have come up with a strategy. It's taken years to develop, collecting data, tweaking etc. but it works and better yet it takes the gut feel out of it and let's you derive at a decision based on data. This is a step by step:

1. Use the opening line - found at donbest.com - always handicap using the opening line. 

2. I then write down 4 bits of data: Total offense rank,Total Defense rank, Sagarain rank and sagarin schedule strength rank.  The first two ranks can be found at sportsnetwork.com, fbs, statistics.  The next two can be found - go to google, pop sagarin in there and it will say usa sagarin rankings go there and click on college football. 

3. Basically, I follow patterns based on the opening line and the 4 ranks.  Since we don't have current data for the games tomorrow and this weekend - we can still use last years data (I have done this the last several years and it does work for the first year), for example, em at ball st. and ball st is favored by 3 - the opening line, we have the following:

   East Mich     93 34 119  117

3 Ball st           68 119 100  78

I always write T.off., T. Def, sagarin rank sagarin sched strength and each rank is A B C D.   In this case we have EM better in 1 category total defense.   I label this as a 1 B / 3  situation.  This let's me know how many categories each team is better in and what they are.

4.  I have a data base where I collect and write this information down.  Trends develop and based on those trends I have a pattern to follow.  In the case of the game above, history has shown that when you have a 1 B/ 3 situation and the 3 team is favored by less than 7.5 pts - take the 1 team.  Thus my money is on Emich.  It's early so becareful.  In addition, Nebraska, Illinois, Ga, they all follow a pattern - not the same as emich. but a pattern that has shown a trend - thus that team for this given weekend.

5. I suggest you copy and paste the lines from donbest.com into your own spreadsheet.  Then write down the situation for each team.  I print it out write it down and then go thru putting the info. into a spreadsheet.  It's a pain but it does pay.  

6. Betting on games where all you have is gut feel or going against the public - been there done that - it just doesn't work consistently.  You feel more confident and you understand the ranks and sked. strength etc.

7. Also, recognize oddsmakers are smart people - they have the money, time, data to put a number on a game that makes sense from their vantage point - the line on the game takes into account a variety of factors - including injuries, public perception, road, home, night day etc.  - coming up with your own line doesn't make sense to me, therefore, I use their line with my criteria. 

8.   It's a marathon not a sprint so becareful, this data is updated everyweek.

9. Any questions - let me know. Good luck this season everyone. TB

Interesting, I too only use opening lines when working my systems. Any W/L percentages you want to share? Will be watching, hope you have much success...

hardyvault - thanks, same to you. I'm not good at tracking wins and losses but I have done good. I still get hung up on a play and that will taketime to recover from but then I go back and tweak my criteria.  I'll post my picks in the forum and try to do a better job of keeping track, maybe it will help me be more selective.   

Just for the record - disregard the Ga and Illinois picks in this post - I was going on memory vice having the data in front of me - see the cfb forum for my picks.

Great tip Buddah  but do u factor in returning starters and things like that as well?

speedy - the oddsmakers would do that.   I just go with the opening line - f there is something major that occurs (qb change) they revise the opening line and I would adjust accordingly.

I'm still a little confused as to how ur system works as far as how u come up with ur own line and compare it to the opening line. Wt type of trend u follow after u get ur 4 data catagories together.  Seems like a pretty good system and would like to know a little more about it because right now I kinda go off of my hit feeling sometimes and that definitely doesn't work lol. 

Speedy - I don't come up with my own line - i use the opening line from donbest.com.  I look up the 4 data points and let the patterns drive my decision.  If you look up the data for rutgers and sfla, you would have:

        Rutgers  100  6 79   215

9.5   S. fla       46   52 34  77       

This is a 1B/3 situation.  History (games played where i recored this data since 2007) has shown that in a 1B/3 situation you need to compare the 1 teams Offens. rank  100 compared to the 3 teams def. rank - 52  - whatever team has a better rank is the team to take.  In this case - s.fla is the choice 52 is better than 100.   I think the line went to 7.- that doesn't bother me unless there is a qb change - i stick with the pattern. My money is on s.fla.  You have to print out the spreads and then write this info. down. record it in a spread sheet so you have something to refer to.  Does this help?

 

Thabuddah- yes thanks I have a better understanding now, but since u use the opening line for ur system do u lock ur bets early to catch the opening line or wait for the movement? And if so how much of a move will u play and How far does the line have to jump for u to not bet? Thanks for the help!

speedy  - no problem - I do watch the line movement but unless it goes way down or up do i get concerned.  If there is a major change - qb, location of the game - something that can jar the flow ....i stick to it.  My thinking in the game tonite with s. fla.....rutgers is ranked 6th in defense.....and they have kept games close with s.fla when on the road.......thus public money goes on rutgers....not sure exactly but i'm sticking with s.fla.

your other question - lock up the line - i typically don't lock up the line nor do i buy points - i just go with the flow.....i do ocaasionally throw in a teaser - gives me a larger margin of error.

Okay thanks thebuddah I will definitley try this out. How have u done so far this season?

I know it did not come thru for s.fla but check out the picks for today in the cfb forum...it's a marathon not a sprint.

Including sfla and taking ecarolina on the m.l as well as the spread -   I went 14-7 for week 3 using the pattern system (see forum section for records).  Once again good luck all.

Are your picks posted in the respective forums?  I seem to only have read your MLB picks.  I hear what you are saying about gut feeling and it is good to take emotion out of the equation and I find this so difficult to do as sports is so much about emotion.  I play all and my strategy is to money line parlays to eliminate spreads.  If you can pair a dog in your plays you can mix big favs and small favs and dogs,etc.  had good success with say Serena in tennis, Baylor. Lady Bears, KY Wildcats in baskets.  Seem to have reasonable luck with futures as I had Serena to win Olympic Gold and Wimbledon and Katie Taylor to win Gold for women Olympic boxing.  My parlays are not big winners as usually my odds are not high but I find it easier to go 50-50 in money line parlays then trying to go over 50% in straight bet wagers.  Example, yesterday had Tigers parlayed with New England money line.  Lost a straight wager Detroit run line but the parlay made up for it.

shadow - i do put them in the respective forums. sometimes i can't get to it - but i put them in this past week.

ok

Another season is upon us and i'm very much looking to make some $$$$.   I responded to a post in the CFB forum and that I would post it here as well.   This basically breaks down what is listed at the beginning of this string.      

1. You can easily confuse yourself if you look at a lot of stats so keep it kind of simple.   Look at total Off. Rank and total def. rank these numbers are based on average yards per game and can be found at statfox.com

2. go to sagarin.com and look the rank of the team and look at the schedule strength rank of a team.

3. You also must consider what the oddsmakers opening line on a game. Donbest.com  

4. Then you look for patterns within the scenarios.

5. Here is an example for the upcoming weekend game southern miss and miss. st. - because this is the first week of cfb - you gotta use last years numbers - which do work but need to be careful:

Smiss   (t.o)  119   (t.d)    102    (Sag rank)  199     Sag. sched (90)

29   Miss st     44             17                         31                           15

Miss st opens up as a 29 pt fav.  Currently around 31.   Miss st. is better in all 4 categories (lower the number the better).   This is what I call a 0/4 situation.    In this case history has shown  in the first week of football - when a team is better in all 4 categories, a double digit fav. and has a better  sagarin total by a significant margin Smiss (289) vice Miss st (46) - the home team should get the cover.  

Other games that follow patterns that have a high probability of success based on historical results:  Mich., Idaho, usc, Oklahoma, Unlv, SMU, Tenn, COL, GA, Kent st, Bgreen, Marshall, Alabama, FSU

The key is recording the spreads, the data and results and coming up with trends.  Keep track in a spreadsheet and make notes every week.   This will lead to success.    It can be a pain in the butt, however if your willing....you will see positive results.  Good  luck. to all this season.     

 

What are the different situations (0/4 is one you mention) for a matchup being a play or no play?

Better Sag Total by a significant margin is defined as?  What are the Sag margin values as they relate to the opening line to determine play or no play?

What percentage of your plays do you win with this system?

Firebird - great questions:

1.  You have 16 possible scenarios:   0/4, 4/0, 1A/3, 3/1A, 3/1B, 1B/3, 1C/3, 3/1C, 3/1D, 1D/3;   Then you have the situations with the 2s - which can get confusing.   I break it down this way:

2WS/2BS ; 2BS/2WS; 2Uh/2DH; 2DH/2UH; 2DH/2DH; 2UH/2UH 

Just to give you an example:

Tulane    121    21    91    101

Tulsa      104    96     132   71

Since Tulsa is better in Toff. and Tulane is better in Total def.  I call this 2 Up the hill /  2 down the hill (Tulane better in Sagarin rank 91  and Tulsa better in Schedule strength 71)    or 2UH/2 DH.

Each scenario may or may not have trends to uncover.....I find the scenario of 3/1d when the 1 d team is favored - there's a high percentage of victories - so take col this weekend.

2. Better Sag Total by a significant margin is defined as? 

This is where you have to define the margins based on YOUR record keeping.  However, for the 0/4 situation I find it to be 230 sagarin total.  So we have two situations where I find Misst and Oklahoma meet this criteria and should crush and cover. 

What are the Sag margin values as they relate to the opening line to determine play or no play?

I don't look at it as sag. margin values compared to the line to determine play or no play.   Each scenario above may or may not have trends associated with them.  For example, when you have a scenario that is 3/1C - I find in those scenarios - the teams score a lot of points - so i take the over - nothing to do with sagarin totals.   

 3.   What percentage of your plays do you win with this system?

I've won money the past few seasons. and have done really well during bowl season.....it is about recording the data and results and taking notes to define the margins and figuring out what scenarios seem to have the highest probability of success.  Do I sometimes get caught up and make a major wager and lose....of course but with process improvement i'm able to avoid some of those pitfalls. It's putting the effort in and sticking with it.   It takes time but you have a level of confidence going into the season or weekend about your picks.....vice simply gut feel.  

Hope this helps.     

 

Sorry let me clarify - 2ws means worst sagarin 2 bs means better sagarin:

Example:  

Ga south.    38   26     148     201

Ncstate       74   63      113     63

In this case i'd call it 2 WS/ 2 BS     As you can see GAsthrn has worst sagarin numbers and NC state has better sagarin numbers.

 

TheBuddah

Example:

WF 118 32 86 59
ULM 98 90 128 93

WF has the advantage 3-1 and is favored by less than 7.5 using the Don Best opener.  ULM should be the play right?

Thanks. 

Why are my Tulsa/Tulane Total O and Total D different than yours?

I have:

Tulane 115 22
Tulsa 100 93

Ekud - the numbers are different only because I used statfox and you used sportsnetwork.   The outcome is the same so your okay.

If you use statfox.....you simply click on   Total yards and it will rank the teams like sortsnetwork does.   The reason for the difference - statfox includes 128 teams which is current and sportsnetwork includes 123 teams.  This being a new season - I expect sportsnetwork should update and reflect the same.

Regarding your other question about wakeforest/Monroe.  Based on the numbers - it's a 3/1A situation......unfortunately it doesn't work as simple as you commented above.   Meaning simply because wake is better in 3 categories, has a better sagarin total and are favored - wake is the play.    we have a couple of things happening with this game:

1. Go back to donbest.com and you will see this game is now +4 for Monroe.   Whenever you have a +line on a game it means you avoid it.   I say that because I don't know exactly what that means but something is up and it's not worth the risk in my opinion.

2.  I have found when you have a 3/1A situation the best play is the under, not a side.   

3. Since this is a + line situation - i'll avoid the game completely.

Hope that helps. 

Thanks for your reply.  What do you mean a + situation?  Do you mean as in the home team is the dog?  Every game has a + line situation right?