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Critique my Method (NFL)

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Prospect
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Posted: #26
Cant wait to see the results.  Good luck bud!
 
Covers Rehab
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Posted: #27
Good luck on the Balt game!!  Too funny!!
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by milkman33:

Good luck on the Balt game!!  Too funny!!


What's funny about a hurricane? There are millions of people suffering and you're laughing at a postponed game?


 
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Posted: #29
You kill me sdiinc.  No- I was actually laughing at the picks you threw up there and you didn't realize one of them was cancelled.  But I guess they fit your "formula" right?
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by milkman33:

You kill me sdiinc.  No- I was actually laughing at the picks you threw up there and you didn't realize one of them was cancelled.  But I guess they fit your "formula" right?


If you'll take a look at the date/time stamp, you'll notice the picks were posted before that game was canceled.  We would call that result 'no action'. 

 
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Posted: #31
I'm going to follow this for a little while.
 
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Posted: #32
I like your idea sdiinc; I am trying to develop a similar system but am having difficulty finding the stats I need. Where do you get your from?  I will be betting your system for the near future but want to develop my own. Thanks
 
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Posted: #33
Week 2 results are 5 wins, 4 losses and 1 no action.  Our prayers and sympathies to those in southern Texas.

Season-to-date we are 8-6, or 57%, a little under last season's final 12 weeks, but not bad so far. 

See you on Friday.
 
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Posted: #34
Good Luck sdiinc.  Your formula seems to be picking turning out results.  I was wondering if you added any subjectivity to your plays.  averaging 5 plays a week hitting 65% using purly a formula is extremely impressive.  Good Luck Mark
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by Courage:

Good Luck sdiinc.  Your formula seems to be picking turning out results.  I was wondering if you added any subjectivity to your plays.  averaging 5 plays a week hitting 65% using purly a formula is extremely impressive.  Good Luck Mark


I do not consider situational stuff, the alignment of the stars, how said coach does on Monday nights or how a team does in a dome when it's raining, or anything like that.

My evaluation of the lines is a little subjective, but largely based on statistics-obvious stuff like 3.5 vs 3, 6.5 vs 7 or 7.5, 9.5 vs 10, and the probability of any given NFL game to end at a certain spread.

What is subjective is I do not like big lines, even though looking at last year's numbers there doesn't seem to have been much difference in the accuracy of the picks based on a +3 or +10. 

If I hear something on ESPN during the week that really scares me, I might avoid the game, but I'm more of a numbers guy than a football guy, and I've usually finished the numbers by Thursday and don't look at them again. 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #36
Do you have the numbers for this sundays games out yet?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #37
Week 3 Games

NE -12.5 (I know, I don't like big lines but this one fits the criteria)
TEN -5
SF -4
BAL -2.5
NYJ +9
 
Prospect
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Posted: #38
3-1 nice SDIINC
 
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Posted: #39
...........and GO J.E.T.S!!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by dharbour:

3-1 nice SDIINC


You think you'll see me take another big line this season?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #41
im with you on the jets tonight sdinc.  lets do this!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #42
Well, 4-1 would've been nice for week 3, but I'll settle for 3-2.

That brings our total for the season to 11-8, 58% ATS.  Next week we'll switch exclusively to current season data.
 
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Posted: #43
Doubt you will take a line in double digits the rest of the season.
 
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Posted: #44
SDIINC please could you explain how to take a winner in a
game which the spread home fav -7.5 and 42.5 points
NFL
 
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Posted: #45
DomCapper, not sure I can do much with what you've given me.  What I would say is that -7.5 might as well be -9.5 from a statistical view; very few games end at 8 or 9 spread. 

You might want to shop around some and see if you can get -7 on that one.

It will probably be Saturday before I have NFL picks for week four up; been a busy week at work.
 
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Posted: #46
sdiinc....
 
ok. i got it..
 
 
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Posted: #47
What I would say is that -7.5 might as well be -9.5 from a statistical view; very few games end at 8 or 9 spread. 

 
Mark, do you have and/or have time to post the statistics of games that end at specidic spreads. Would be a huge help
 
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Posted: #48
I also started a thread on the importance of certain stats in football.... If you hav time i would be very interested in your input on that. thanks
 
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Posted: #49
Hey disregard what I asked about the lines found something really good about that online
 
 
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Posted: #50
Week 4 Picks

SF +6
JAX -7
CIN -3.5
ATL +7
TEN -3
TB -1
OAK +9
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