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Critique my Method (NFL)

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Posted: #51
WTF is an offensive interception? How is this possible? SDIINC did you get your system from the advancednflstats website? Seems like they use the same criteria.
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by Cool_Money:

WTF is an offensive interception? How is this possible? SDIINC did you get your system from the advancednflstats website? Seems like they use the same criteria.


Offensive Interception rate measures the frequency of interceptions per offensive plays.  This is a good way to test the productivity of an offense.

No, I didn't get the system from Brian, but it is similar in approach because we both use logical regression.  Search for these terms on the web and you'll find a bunch of statisticians who talk about win probability.  Compare mine with Brian's and you'll also find some differences (he doesn't predict ATS, e.g.).

Thanks for the question!
 
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Posted: #53
 
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Posted: #54
KC -9.5
CHI -3.5
SD -6.5
NYG -7
DEN -3.5
SF +3
NO -3
 
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Posted: #55
KC was actually +9.5
 
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Posted: #56
2-4 headed into the monday night showdown!
 
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Posted: #57
 
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Posted: #58
SDIINC, not a great last couple weeks.  Wondering if you are still using the same system and riding it out?  Any tweeks to account for the poor last couple weeks? 
 
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Posted: #59
I would be willing to bet he has been more worried about his currnet business with the stockmarket being a mess and putting out fires. I hope all is well SDINC
 
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Posted: #60
Sorry to be late posting.  Here are week 6 picks:

NO -7
CAR +1
MIA -3
PHI -4.5
SD -5
NYG -9


 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by TMGrinder:

SDIINC, not a great last couple weeks.  Wondering if you are still using the same system and riding it out?  Any tweeks to account for the poor last couple weeks? 


TM, no tweeks.  I put the formula together based on backtesting of 10 years of data and have used it profitably.  A few weeks are statistically insignificant. The difference between investing and gambling is with the former we stay the course and don't let a few losers change a fundamentally sound approach.  Stay tuned!
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by dharbour:

I would be willing to bet he has been more worried about his currnet business with the stockmarket being a mess and putting out fires. I hope all is well SDINC


I have been busy!  By far the worst market since I've been managing money.  Fortunately was already bullish so missed the last week of losses and are flat for the year.

As for NFL, we're at 16-17, 48.4% ATS with a net one-unit loss, certainly not great, but nothing to get crazy about.
 
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Posted: #63
We're at 19-20 ATS so far this season with alot of upsets thus far. 

A review of last year's results plus this season suggests we're better off to bet more games rather than less (putting more money at work each week), so I'm going to start posting a few more games than in the past.

Here are week 7 picks:

SD +1
CAR -3
CHI -3
TEN -9
MIA -3
DAL -7
WAS -9
DEN +3

 
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Posted: #64
Ten
 
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Posted: #65
CAR -3.5
SD -3
WAS -9
JAX -7
PIT -3
SF -5
TEN -4
 
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Posted: #66
1-5 heading into the big matchup tonight!!!
 
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Posted: #67
Look like this guy pulled the plug on his "system".
 
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Posted: #68
With due respect I see no merit to this system. The linemakers use similar stats. If that is the case you will not be able to make money. There are many things more important. Linemakers shade the spreads. If one can come up with an accurate spread you can make serious money by "investing" on all games that are 3 or more points off. I have been posting plays in NBA that compare the spreads to what is a truer spread. It makes money every year. At this posting it is 9-1. I post plays every day. What I do works and has so for 20 years with never a losing season. It is all but impossible to lose when you have teams that are undervalued by 3 or more points!!!!
 
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Posted: #69
Sorry guys, forgot to post last week. I've been sending out picks by email to those of you who've requested it.  If you'd like to be on the email list just send to my un @ yahoo.com.  I'll be starting NBA picks within a week or so. 

Week 9 NFL:

STL +3
BAL + 1.5
DET +13
HOU +4.5
CIN +7.5
BUF -5.5
KC +9
MIA +3.5
OAK +3
DAL +9
SEA +7
NE +6
WAS -1.5


 
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Posted: #70
Hey SDiinc what's your email?
 
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Posted: #71
THIS IS A CRAZY YR FOR NFL!!! HOLD YA HEAD AND RIDE IT OUT THINGS R STARTIN TO SHAPE UP THO THIS IS THE STRETCH RUN!!! BOL
 
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Posted: #72
Decent strategy but as you can tell, it doesn't always work. The key winning strategy, is not having a set strategy. Variables such as weather, injuries have an effect on lines as well as outcomes. I do this professionally for a living and am building my own company soon. Anyone want free picks?
 
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Posted: #73
I also love the use of the word " upset " when talking about ATS.... the spread is suppose to give each team a fair chance of winning, meaning there are no upsets.
 
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Posted: #74
Hi guys, the numbers put CLE and DEN very even tonight, so I'm going with DEN and the 3 points. 

Keep in mind that I approach this as investing rather than gambling.  The profits come in the long run, by grinding down through a slight edge.  It's easy to say something "doesn't work" when you look at a relatively small sample, and conversely, you can say something "always works" if you look at a different, but small sample.  I think I've posted before about binomial distribution, so if you care look that up.

In MLB we had a very consistent and profitable season for the 2nd year.  We made about 50 units, using a bankroll of 50 units (2%), with a very attractive efficiency rate.  Yet, I always get some idiot who sees a 3, 4 or 5 game losing streak and begins yelling "the sky is falling".  If you know anything about stats you know such a thing is inevitable. 

For the simple-minded:  try flipping a coin 20 times and post your results.  If you get more tails than heads, we know your system "doesn't work".  If you get more heads than tails, then we can proclaim you the Messiah.

I'll be back tomorrow or Saturday with Sunday & Monday's games.  If you don't like the picks, I'll refund your money...oh, wait, they're all free....
 
 
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Posted: #75
3,4 or 5 game losing streak?? I read " We're at 19-20 ATS so far this season with alot of upsets thus far".  If i flip a coin, i bet you I can do 19-20. I am willing to post my picks against yours to prove my " non idiot ness " . I will even use your spreads.
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