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DegenGamble's NFL handicapping method

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Posted: #51

NOR -7

LAR -3.5

JAX -5.5

IND +7.5

PHI -7

TEN -3.5

ATL +2.5

WAS +7.5

SF +2.5

DAL -2.5

OAK -3

DET -2.5

 

 

 
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Posted: #52
Degen,by interdivisional rivals do you mean all teams in their division? I dont know if this is right but here are the teamsfrom the list that the lines didn't move against us and are not playing in their division--Philly-Tenn-Dallas-Oakland--or o you play all teams on the list--Thanks for your work!
 
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Posted: #53

Quote Originally Posted by leo81:

Degen,by interdivisional rivals do you mean all teams in their division? I dont know if this is right but here are the teamsfrom the list that the lines didn't move against us and are not playing in their division--Philly-Tenn-Dallas-Oakland--or o you play all teams on the list--Thanks for your work!

No - the picks are the picks - they are initial leans.  You can use whatever other methods to eliminate games and just pick the ones you want to bet.  I just want to show even without any other handicapping method - using Fantasy Football projections could be a viable method to help handicap nfl games

 

 
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Posted: #54
Marvelous--I see your point
 
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Posted: #55

Ok week - 8-4-1 (67%).  Could have been better if TEN and OAK didn’t let their opponents back door cover up 2 scores.  OAK game hurt more cuz they had to score and get 2 point conversion just for a shot at onsides

 

BUF -3 L

NOR -7 W

LAR -3.5 W

JAX -5.5 W

IND +7.5 W

PHI -7 W

TEN -3.5 L

ATL +2.5 L

WAS +7.5 W

SF +2.5 L

DAL -2.5 W

OAK -3 PUSH

DET -2.5 W

 
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Posted: #56
Degen, what do you mean by adjust -2 for the home fav or +4 if a home dog?

I get the delta then divide by the game line.  What do you do with the number you get after you divide by the line?

Thanks.
 
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Posted: #57
Thanks degen.  didn't play thursday, and due to some line movement in my favor, your picks went 8-2-2 this week for me. 
 
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Posted: #58
Season results:

Week 1: 8-7 53%
Week 2: 9-7 56%
Week 3: 12-4 75%
Week 4: 11-5 69%
Week 5: 7-7 50%
Week 6: 9-5 64%
Week 7: 6-8-1 43%
Week 8: 10-3 77%
Week 9: 8-4-1 67%
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by EKUD:

Degen, what do you mean by adjust -2 for the home fav or +4 if a home dog?

I get the delta then divide by the game line.  What do you do with the number you get after you divide by the line?

Thanks.

Check post #23 - basically I adjust the line for HFA - but I hve been experimenting using +/- 3, 2.8 or even not adjusting at all - seems like doing some adjustment is needed but haven't narrowed down what is best
 
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Posted: #60
Thursday night pick per Fantasy Football Projections

SEA -5.5 (still works @ -6)
 
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Posted: #61
BUF +2.5
NYJ -2.5
CHI -5.5
PIT -10
CIN +5.5
WAS +1.5
SDG +5.5
DET -11
LAR -12
NYG -2.5
ATL -3
NE -7.5
CAR -10 (this one is super close - projected CAR wins by 10 - so this could flip to MIA)
 
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Posted: #62
not a bad week when you start to take into consideration that the fantasy numbers can start to skew when using projected numbers for guys who are backups starting in place of injured/suspended starters. those backups have lower projections, but that's based on fewer carries/attempts/etc.
 
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Posted: #63
I was hoping for a better showing this week - 8-6 (57%)

SEA -5.5 W
BUF +2.5 L
NYJ -2.5 L
CHI -5.5 L
PIT -10 L
CIN +5.5 W
WAS +1.5 L
SDG +5.5 W
DET -11 W
LAR -12 W
NYG -2.5 L
ATL -3 W
NE -7.5 W
CAR -10 W
 
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Posted: #64
Thursday night pick

PIT -6.5

Note that per fantasy projections - PIT is projected to win by 10
 
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Posted: #65
Sorry forgot to post this week - in case anyone is interested

TB -1
KC -10
DET -2.5
LAR +2
JAX -7
NOR -7.5
GB +2.5
ARI +2.5
LAC -6.5
CIN +3
NE -7
PHI -6
ATL +2
 
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Posted: #66
Always look forward to your posts
 
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Posted: #67
Nice 4-0 run  brought us homeThis is why I like Covers,people think outside the box--good job DegenGamble
 
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Posted: #68
 
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Posted: #69
Decent week 9-5 (64%)- and since I posted late if you jumped in on any of the remaining games we were perfect - maybe I should post late every week :)

PIT -6.5 W
TB -1 W
KC -10 L
DET -2.5 W
LAR +2 L
JAX -7 W
NOR -7.5 L
GB +2.5 L
ARI +2.5 L
LAC -6.5 W
CIN +3 W
NE -7 W
PHI -6 W
ATL +2 W
 
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Posted: #70
Season results:

Week 1: 8-7 53%
Week 2: 9-7 56%
Week 3: 12-4 75%
Week 4: 11-5 69%
Week 5: 7-7 50%
Week 6: 9-5 64%
Week 7: 6-8-1 43%
Week 8: 10-3 77%
Week 9: 8-4-1 67%
Week 10: 8-6 57%
Week 11: 9-5 64%
 
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Posted: #71
Trying to keep the posting late run good

MIN -2.5
LAC -1.5
WAS -7
 
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Posted: #72
Degen I sent you a friend request....

I have a question for you when you have a couple minutes
 
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Posted: #73
very nice Thursday....

I am very interested in this technique however I have had an extremely hard time matching your numbers?  I realize you dont want to say the site you use for projections but maybe a little more insight into what positions you use?

For example some sites us QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, FLEX, D/ST

And others use KICKER instead of FLEX

While others only use 2 WR's etc.


 
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Posted: #74
Hard to credit yourself with that Minnesota win when you posted more than 2 hours after the game started.
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by Keano:

Hard to credit yourself with that Minnesota win when you posted more than 2 hours after the game started.

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