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Prospect
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Posted: #201
Roxpile,
It defines a 2 game or 4 game series
GL
 
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Posted: #202
Thank you JenJay. I am trying to update the Super System and ICY sheets for 2016 (unless someone already has). It looks like the Schedule is a static tab, not a Web Query, do you know where the data was obtained? I was just going to use Retrosheet's CSV download and then parse it out, unless there is a better source?
 
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Posted: #203
it is all manually done.  The unfortunate thing about this method is it doesn't catch make up games.  To help your cause you can extract the schedule page from the following.   Currently this sheet is not working correctly as I am waiting to see how a few of the web sites are going to format, the espn link for standings will have to be changed to a site with similar format that works more easy within excel.  I plan on making these adjustments after a few games are played and I can see how things will import and make the alterations as needed.  In addition it takes a good week or so to get this years RPI data in.  but in the meantime the schedule is done so you can use to start updating or creating your own :).....
GL

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UBaNk9s7UjN0RXU3dJM3JZY00/view?usp=sharing


 
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Posted: #204
jenjay23....nice work on the sheet

hope your MLB season is a profitable one
 
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Posted: #205
Awesome JenJay! I was hoping to help, but if already done and being worked, all good! I see it is the ICY sheet; have you worked the SuperSystem 7.5v3 version or the OVER UNDER sheet? They all look to be based on the same logic; might be interesting to combine them all into one. Thoughts?
 
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Posted: #206
I have not worked on the Super System sheet, although you are correct in that it is basically the same logic to update the sheet for the year.   The biggest hurdle I struggle with in the SS sheet is obtaining the Sagarin data from USAtoday site. It does not import well and format properly with excel, the formatting seems to change from day to day.  Degen and Leprachaun are the wizards at that, I have not found a simple way to complete the import in my basic knowledge of vba.  The O-U sheet would be quite easy to update,  it just takes so dang long to update every morning that its sometimes easier to do it manually IMO
 
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Posted: #207
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

jenjay23....nice work on the sheet
hope your MLB season is a profitable one

Thanks OilCountry, hope yours is profitable as well.
I always find this time of the year hard to choose the many systems this forum has provided over the years, new ideas and trusted older ones in which i want to put my money into....hopefully I pick the right ones this year :)..........as you can see within the sheet I am growing more fond of investing into what I call "top pick labby's".  I find it a good way to look at all the system plays and have the ability to somewhat look ahead, Cap and choose the series and/or games I feel there is value in, played on a standard labby has provided me the most profit over the last few years.  Although the L4 dog sucked last year, it was just to profitable in years past to shelf it this year, I am going to give it another shot, or at least see if it gains any momentum early on in the season.

GL
 
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Posted: #208
Quote Originally Posted by jenjay23:


Thanks OilCountry, hope yours is profitable as well.
I always find this time of the year hard to choose the many systems this forum has provided over the years, new ideas and trusted older ones in which i want to put my money into....hopefully I pick the right ones this year :)..........as you can see within the sheet I am growing more fond of investing into what I call "top pick labby's".  I find it a good way to look at all the system plays and have the ability to somewhat look ahead, Cap and choose the series and/or games I feel there is value in, played on a standard labby has provided me the most profit over the last few years.  Although the L4 dog sucked last year, it was just to profitable in years past to shelf it this year, I am going to give it another shot, or at least see if it gains any momentum early on in the season.

GL

It is definitely a challenge year in and year out to decide what to 'invest in'  One of my downfalls, is getting involved in too much.  This baseball season my focus is on handicapped plays, and maybe 1 or 2 'systems' on the side.  i too enjoy the labby method and it's flexibility.  The goal is to build bank.....not an easy task, i tend to spread myself to thin and must get away from that, I continue to improve but there is more room for improvement.  maybe I should avoid forums LOL!
 
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Posted: #209

Also, do you know of any sheets that does AR's MLB Sweep System in looking back to the previous series that was played?

I saw W5Fade and Home Avoid Series Sweep/Dogg was eliminated from your 2016 version.  Were the systems just not any good and you chose to exclude them?
 
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Posted: #210
Roxpile,
I decided to eliminate the W5Fade and series sweep systems from my personnel plays this year......although i will watch more specifically the Home team avoid the series sweep system and if i feel a qualifying play has value i will add it to my "top pick labby" play. That being said if a qualifying W5fade play looks juicy, i will also play it on one of my labby's as well.  After review of the last few seasons i felt the ROI% on the amount played to the amount gained wasnt worth the sweat of playing every qualifying game so I shelfed them.  One of those things i mentioned above, they probably rock this year but decided not to play every qualifying game on historical ROI's over the past 2-3 years of data.
As far as the "revenge a series sweep", Degen's sheet if updated properly does a dang good job at identifying plays ( i believe you are referring to SS #5 plays).
GL
 
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Posted: #211
Quote Originally Posted by jenjay23:


Although the L4 dog sucked last year, it was just to profitable in years past to shelf it this year, I am going to give it another shot, or at least see if it gains any momentum early on in the season.

GL

Jenjay, Your post on the L4 dog system got me thinking if a labby line would be a good way to go instead of flat bet. So, I tested last year which would really have been bad flat betting and 2014 which had an unbelievably high percentage of dog wins.

As I mentioned in a different thread, dogs seem to do better earlier in the year before things settle in. So, my goal going in was to run a 10 number labby line with each number representing 1/2 a unit with 1 unit equaling 1% of bankroll. Stop after 20 units, which would be a 20% increase in bankroll.

2014 - Goal reached after games played on May 8. Largest bet was 2 units. I can't see this repeating as dogs won 17 and lost 4. Crazy. Continuing through May would have been 32 units, by July 4 46 units. System was in the black since day 1.

2015 - The year that would have killed you by flat betting. Goal reached on June 21 with largest bet being 2.3 units. System was in the black the whole time except for after day 1. I probably would have called it at the end of May up 17.8 units. Playing after goal was reached would have seen a couple of bad losing streaks and not getting back to goal until August 12. Would have also had a few large wagers that I don't think I could have pulled the trigger on.

I think I'm going to play this in 2016 using the labby line as I described above, stopping at 20 units if I can get there by end of May. I'll be more than happy to walk with a 20% increase in bankroll, plus another 20% in my early season dog thread. If all goes well a 40% increase in bankroll by end of May.

Thanks for the effort in running this spreadsheet. Good stuff!

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #212
Thanks Dan,
What a sweet way to take a more conservative approach and still reap the benefits of profits, while limiting BR exposure if things go sideways.   I like the idea alot.  I am going to think about it over the weekend, my first thought was that I may split my allotted BR to the system and run it both ways for a month.  I figure if it goes bad, the labby approach will absorb some loss but if it goes good I can reap a few more units out of the flat betting on %BR balance approach. I think I am stuck in the insane profits i made in 2014 running this.....but got awoken last year :)
Let's see what happens.......dang i get excited about this sh*t 

I look forward to your early season DOG theory and increasing that unit count.....that one sounds and smells of success

GL
 
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Posted: #213
Remember that last year was a particularly bad year for dogs. I will be following L4W5 flat betting again this season.
 
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Posted: #214
I use Degen's original "Super System" sheet to have a look at qualifying plays.  I updated for this year for my purposes and a link to the sheet for download is available.  No guarantees on its accuracy and I would double check to ensure a qualifying play fits into the System parameters, i strictly utilize it for a tool.  Park records for system #4 are not up to date as I rarely utilize that system and its components.  I have not verified the formula's to define plays, but appears that for right now things are working properly.  If you identify any bugs I could possibly see if I can fix them....if an easy one :)
GL
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UBaNk9s7UjWGt6dVU2T3ItLTQ/view?usp=sharing
 
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Posted: #215
Quote Originally Posted by jenjay23:

 
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UBaNk9s7UjWGt6dVU2T3ItLTQ/view?usp=sharing
thanks
 
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Posted: #216
This has been a tremendous help for me to double and tripe check plays that I've already manually capped myself.  Jenjay - Thank you for the updates!
 
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Posted: #217
Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

MLB Underdog Systems

This spreadsheet automates the MLB underdog systems listed on the the following websites:

https://www.betfirms.com/baseball-betting-systems-underdogs/

https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/story.cfm/story/571442/

Now the Vegas Insider link just goes into more detail of the last system of the Bet Firms Link

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5dydT9Oe6JbRXhKaVRGT2lkSXc/edit?usp=sharing

It takes a good 3-5 minutes to pull all the data needed but it shows what teams it's downloading in the lower left hand corner of excel - so just grab a cup of coffee in the mean time.  You only need to run it once each morning.  In addition, for the <6 hits system - you just have to manually check if the team allowed less than 6 hits in their privious game and enter it in the field.  I didn't automate it because I didn't want to slow it down any more for data that would only be used IF the team happens to be a play for that system.

Features:

·         All plays and data needed for the day are updated upon clicking the “Update” button

·         You can download from the link above:

*Just a reminder that the <6 hits system needs some manual inputs


I updated DEGEN's original sheet quoted above for 2016.  It does take at least 20 minutes to update the data so grab a coffee if you like to use it.  It automates # hits allowed last game so no manual input required.  If the peeps who use it notice errors let me know and I will see if I can fix it.........just maybe we will see a 2 team parlay system out of DR24 
 
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Posted: #218
I'm going to run this daily and see how it works out. I remember when we did this a few years ago, we hit a wall mid season and beyond. 

Great work as always jenjay! 
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #219
bump for Scriverio
 
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Posted: #220
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

bump for Scriverio

Thanks man :)
 
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Posted: #221
Hey everyone!
I've been a "passive" member of this thread for quite some time now - and as the new season is just around the corner I would like to get a heads start in betting on it. 

I am currently working on a "pure" underdog batting strategy myself and will post the results and excel as soon as I am satisfied, although I have noticed that the NBA and not baseball is probably the best league to consistently bet on underdogs. 

For now I plan to follow the 5 "original" super systems, maybe the 7 posted in the 2016 excel. 

Either way I would like to see if anyone has been able to adapt the 2016 sheet for this season yet. I think this would only be possible as soon as at least some games are in and the online resources are available.

Even with the excel I wanted to know if anyone is interested in starting a slack channel to discus bets and everything around it. I have already started the channel at mlbsupersystems.slack.com and welcome everyone! 

For everyone concerned: I don't want to replace the covers forum, rather not spam the forum with questions like "do you bet on the blue jays, they only played the mets 4 times the last two years" - "yes because they have an insane interleague record at home!" 

Well, thats it from me!

Therefore: Happy new season, profitable betting and may the red sox take it all. 

 
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Posted: #222
I will have a version of the "5 originals" updated and will share once I can confirm, modify and edit the imports from the various sites that it pulls from.  A few sites are down so I will have to find some other sources to get a bit of the data required.  Should be in a week or two.
I look forward to your methodology on your new strategy and tracking the results of the SS's.
GL
 
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Posted: #223
Hey ya'll, I haven't updated my excel in a year and a half...just wanted to know if there are any better sites for scraping stats etc? I had an excellent excel file that I made back in Mar 2015 that updated everything automatically overnight...including my W/L plus what my bankroll looked like.  I stopped back in July 2015 and hadn't touched it since.
Ill post a copy of it when I update it for 2017.  I have it giving the teams for a bunch of different systems that are floating around the web.
Right now, I have to go buy a copy of Windows Office 365.  My laptop died and I had to buy another.  Fortunately, Geek Squad was able to transfer all of my old excel files over.
After you guys check it out, let me know if there any better sites I can scrape from and if there are any systems you want added.

Glad to be back
 
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Posted: #224
Hey Kaptn,
Welcome back .  Look forward to your sheet.  Over the last little while a few sites where I am sure we both scraped from have gone down or changed their format to make it difficult to import into excel. With a bit touring around the web I found that statfox.com has alot of good MLB data, well tabulated web format that is easy to import into excel.  Most of the data we would want to scrape and utilize is at our fingertips there.
GL
 
 
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Posted: #225
Man, There's a lot more to what I have to change than I thought.  I have to make out the schedule for the whole season.  It's a bit of a pain in the rear.  I won't have it up tonight.
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