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Posted: #226
Will this help your cause ?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UBaNk9s7UjbUlWZHFIcFM2bnM/view?usp=sharing


 
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Posted: #227
So I started the season with a new, very simpel model I wanted to test out: 

The "against the streak"-bet simply assumes that any team will at some point lose a streak (with a streak beginning at 4 games). Last year for example approx. 60% of streaks went 4 games, 30% went 5 games, and then going down to the longest streaks being 10W and 12L (I don't have the real numbers with me right now - but this should be fairly close, I can post them if anyone is interested)

The System works the following way: 
After a team is in a 4 game winning streak or 4 game losing streak I bet against it (for it) in order to win 1 unit.
If I do not win this bet, I will go and bet the same bet the next game in order to win 1 unit and the stakes from the previous bet. If do not win this second bet and it is a winning streak I will stop here in order to not get too deep into the loss column. 
For losing streaks I will go one game further because the stakes to win 1 unit are much lower in losing streaks.
So far this season I had the following plays (x indicating the streaking team I bet on):

x SF @ SD 4L - Won 1 Unit
CLE @  x ARI 4W - Lost
SF @ x ARI 5W - Won (1 Unit+Stakes from the day before)

Tonight I have: 

x ATL @ MIA (4L) 

On my Streak-Watch with a 3 game streak: 
Losses: TOR, CLE, 
Wins: LAA, CHC,   

I am thinking about implementing power rankings - into the system even though the info I have is not consistent on this issue yet. If you'd like to follow how it goes I can post weekly updates. Any suggestions on what you would change are very welcome.

As to the underdog system I talked about: The last seasons of MLB have only shown a stable return for underdog bets at odds  between 3.2 and 3.6 (+220 to +260), which does not happen all that often, so I have to add some predictors to get this more solid. 

Pretty sad that the NBA season is coming to an end - I had a good run betting on underdogs with odds of +300 or higher with an average profit per bet of 18% since I started the system at the beginning of the year. And that includes the horrendous 5% betting fee I have to pay here in Germany. 

Cheers from Germany
 
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Posted: #228
@tillitille: Sounds awesome! I love your approach on the system, very simple and very easy to follow and backtest. I think its threadworthy actually, are you planning to start a thread to follow your system/systems?

And about the 5 % betting fee in Germany.. Hmm, dont the German laws allow you to bet for example on Pinnacle or 5dimes?
 
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Posted: #229
Scirvero, Thanks for the encouragement!
I think I will just do that. It was indeed my goal to create a system that stays as simple as possible. 

On the betting sites: I can use any website, but they all automatically comply with the laws here and track my location to transfer 5% of every bet to the Gov't. They either do it directly or they just have worse odds. If I were to make this a decent source of income I would have to move to any other country in Europe. 

If not I can always be proud that I can add 5% on top of my revenue 
 
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Posted: #230
Sorry for misspelling Scrivero! Is there a way to edit posts? If so I have not yet found it 
 
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Posted: #231
Quote Originally Posted by tillitille:

Sorry for misspelling Scrivero! Is there a way to edit posts? If so I have not yet found it 

No worries :D And I guess Germany is doing a good job with getting some money there. YOuve definitely had some awesome results when taking that into consideration too.
 
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Posted: #232
Here is a link to my sheet for the 5 Super Systems.  It looks like the data is importing properly and formula's defined to give the qualifying games for each system are correct. Qualifying plays should start coming hot n heavy over the next few weeks.  I personally "pick and play" games from systems 1, 2 & 5 and play them on various labby's that I track.  Historically they do pretty well.  I cant guarantee the accuracy in the sheet and if you play and identify something while you manually cap, let me know and I will see if its an easy fix.  I do run this sheet daily and track it's successes/failures and will update this link as the season goes on with somewhat accurate results.  Also any bugs that will occur with the sheet throughout the year will usually be fixed and updated as well.
GL & enjoy if you use or play

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UBaNk9s7UjMnFuNXlDWUM4cVE/view?usp=sharing

 
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Posted: #233
thanks jenjay
 
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Posted: #234
Okay here it is.  I have a number of different systems on there that I've picked up over the years.  Some of you may recognize a few.
That said, the plays may not be an exact format as the author had...I haven't checked and perfected.  Some I don't even know what the criteria is, I did the bulk of the system plays in the excel in early 2015.
This is editable.
If anyone finds a problem or has a suggestion, let me know.
Again, I haven't done much as the criteria of the system plays.  I spent most of the time since my last post, making sure that all formulas were correct and matched to the proper cells...blah blah blah.
Also, on the "P" tab, you can input your plays and when you update, so will this sheet, along with your bankroll.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZQlFSRnpUMHdoN28/view?usp=sharing

 
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Posted: #235
I'd also like to thank DeGen who I got alot of formuli (actual word?) from with all the sheets he has made. 
Thank You Sir, where ever you may be.

 
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Posted: #236
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Okay here it is.  I have a number of different systems on there that I've picked up over the years.  Some of you may recognize a few.
That said, the plays may not be an exact format as the author had...I haven't checked and perfected.  Some I don't even know what the criteria is, I did the bulk of the system plays in the excel in early 2015.
This is editable.
If anyone finds a problem or has a suggestion, let me know.
Again, I haven't done much as the criteria of the system plays.  I spent most of the time since my last post, making sure that all formulas were correct and matched to the proper cells...blah blah blah.
Also, on the "P" tab, you can input your plays and when you update, so will this sheet, along with your bankroll.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZQlFSRnpUMHdoN28/view?usp=sharing

Don't follow the systems on here, just use the stats.  Found a few problems.  I'll update when it's good.
 
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Posted: #237
Sweet sheet Kaptn !!, thank you for sharing.
Love how you incorporated the many systems we have seen over the years.....excellent.
 
 
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Posted: #238
Quote Originally Posted by jenjay23:

Sweet sheet Kaptn !!, thank you for sharing.
Love how you incorporated the many systems we have seen over the years.....excellent.
 
Hi have you done anymore updates to the super systems. By the way great system
 
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Posted: #239
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Okay here it is.  I have a number of different systems on there that I've picked up over the years.  Some of you may recognize a few.
That said, the plays may not be an exact format as the author had...I haven't checked and perfected.  Some I don't even know what the criteria is, I did the bulk of the system plays in the excel in early 2015.
This is editable.
If anyone finds a problem or has a suggestion, let me know.
Again, I haven't done much as the criteria of the system plays.  I spent most of the time since my last post, making sure that all formulas were correct and matched to the proper cells...blah blah blah.
Also, on the "P" tab, you can input your plays and when you update, so will this sheet, along with your bankroll.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZQlFSRnpUMHdoN28/view?usp=sharing


Thanks! Can I ask a question about how to see the plays for each day: I thought I figured it out and found the plays in the "Systems" tab but I dont know how to read it... which play is for which day etc.

Could you give me a tip on how to read it?
 
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Posted: #240
Quote Originally Posted by Scrivero:


Thanks! Can I ask a question about how to see the plays for each day: I thought I figured it out and found the plays in the "Systems" tab but I dont know how to read it... which play is for which day etc.

Could you give me a tip on how to read it?

The plays are on the Systems tab and are for that day you update it.  If you update it daily like I do, the plays will change.  Also, daily, if you hit "Add to Bet Tracker", that will keep the plays from previous days on Bet Tracker tab.  I'm still working on everything to make sure all parameters are correct and should have it updated for this weekend.
I also will have like an instruction tab to help out.
 
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Posted: #241
Also, you will play the team under "PLAY" column, not "FADE"
 
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Posted: #242
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:


The plays are on the Systems tab and are for that day you update it.  If you update it daily like I do, the plays will change.  Also, daily, if you hit "Add to Bet Tracker", that will keep the plays from previous days on Bet Tracker tab.  I'm still working on everything to make sure all parameters are correct and should have it updated for this weekend.
I also will have like an instruction tab to help out.

Thanks for the info.

I think my problem is that the Excel is not "updated", or more like I dont know how to update it. I would assume that the results of the games are updated manually, right?

Seems that my Excel is stuck on the 12th of April, that is all the stats are until the 11th of April and all the system plays are for the 12th of April, even if it says 18th of April on top of Systems.

So do let me know how to update it, thanks! :)
 
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Posted: #243
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:


The plays are on the Systems tab and are for that day you update it.  If you update it daily like I do, the plays will change.  Also, daily, if you hit "Add to Bet Tracker", that will keep the plays from previous days on Bet Tracker tab.  I'm still working on everything to make sure all parameters are correct and should have it updated for this weekend.
I also will have like an instruction tab to help out.
Great Job on this, I been trying to use the add to bet tracker button and it goes into debug mode. I have looked over the code and nothing that looks out of place to my eyes .maybe you can take a look,when you have time. Thanks
 
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Posted: #244
Quote Originally Posted by dalypen:

Great Job on this, I been trying to use the add to bet tracker button and it goes into debug mode. I have looked over the code and nothing that looks out of place to my eyes .maybe you can take a look,when you have time. Thanks
Ya I saw that and fixed it. There's a lot that needs done.  Ex: the 5 run fade is totally outta wack the way I see it.  It's hard to fix it all cause of work and home life!!! I'm off work Friday and Saturday though and it should be finished.  I put it out early for those extra eyes.

@Scrivero how old is your Office? I started this with Office 2013 (?) and currently have the newest one.  I believe that any older office than Office 2010 (?) cannot do the updates on here.  
If you have a good copy...hitting ALL (on Summary..lower left) would start the download.  Also, try hitting TODAY.  That makes the upper left date the current date.  I'm going to fix all that uses the upper date, to use the lower date (which automatically updates).

A lot of web sites keep changing their format, so I'm going to fix it so it won't matter to us.  "Standings" did it to me today, chopped part of the American League East off.

If anyone sees anything else....
 
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Posted: #245
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Quote Originally Posted by dalypen:

Great Job on this, I been trying to use the add to bet tracker button and it goes into debug mode. I have looked over the code and nothing that looks out of place to my eyes .maybe you can take a look,when you have time. Thanks
Ya I saw that and fixed it. There's a lot that needs done.  Ex: the 5 run fade is totally outta wack the way I see it.  It's hard to fix it all cause of work and home life!!! I'm off work Friday and Saturday though and it should be finished.  I put it out early for those extra eyes.@Scrivero how old is your Office? I started this with Office 2013 (?) and currently have the newest one.  I believe that any older office than Office 2010 (?) cannot do the updates on here.  If you have a good copy...hitting ALL (on Summary..lower left) would start the download.  Also, try hitting TODAY.  That makes the upper left date the current date.  I'm going to fix all that uses the upper date, to use the lower date (which automatically updates).A lot of web sites keep changing their format, so I'm going to fix it so it won't matter to us.  "Standings" did it to me today, chopped part of the American League East off.If anyone sees anything else....

I'm using Office 2016. I have zero problem with updating all works great.. just the macro button for the add to bet tracker got me. But I will get it .
 
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Posted: #246
@dalypen rows 1-45 are hidden and have the formulas.  Check up there.  I think that was where the problem was. If not, check in Module 1 - AddBets

@Scrivero One more thing.  Do you have Calculation Options set as Automatic?  I'm trying to get everything set to be automatically updated.  Some formulas will kick this option to manual and then nothing will automate. 
Formulas > Calculation Options>Automatic.
 
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Posted: #247
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Ya I saw that and fixed it. There's a lot that needs done.  Ex: the 5 run fade is totally outta wack the way I see it.  It's hard to fix it all cause of work and home life!!! I'm off work Friday and Saturday though and it should be finished.  I put it out early for those extra eyes.

@Scrivero how old is your Office? I started this with Office 2013 (?) and currently have the newest one.  I believe that any older office than Office 2010 (?) cannot do the updates on here.  
If you have a good copy...hitting ALL (on Summary..lower left) would start the download.  Also, try hitting TODAY.  That makes the upper left date the current date.  I'm going to fix all that uses the upper date, to use the lower date (which automatically updates).

A lot of web sites keep changing their format, so I'm going to fix it so it won't matter to us.  "Standings" did it to me today, chopped part of the American League East off.

If anyone sees anything else....

Thanks for the tips! Office 2016, also everything was set to automatic.

I got it working! Your tip of pressing the ALL downloaded all the results, I just did not realize it before. Now I see all the plays for today. Im probably (hopefully) not the only one too to not notice to press ALL, so maybe the instructions tab that you planned would be a good idea.
 
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Posted: #248
Quote Originally Posted by Scrivero:


Thanks for the tips! Office 2016, also everything was set to automatic.

I got it working! Your tip of pressing the ALL downloaded all the results, I just did not realize it before. Now I see all the plays for today. Im probably (hopefully) not the only one too to not notice to press ALL, so maybe the instructions tab that you planned would be a good idea.


Also, if anyone does this in the morning...the games in the future tab....the web site does not refresh early.  I have a work around on the update.
 
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Posted: #249
Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:



Also, if anyone does this in the morning...the games in the future tab....the web site does not refresh early.  I have a work around on the update.

Good to know :) By the way, is there a place/a way to check the previous years' results for all those systems? Would be interesting.
 
 
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Posted: #250
Hi Guys,

I use Google Sheets and and it seems I'm unable to update both jenjay or Buckeys sheets. jenjays is stuck on the 11th of this month and Buckeys shows the correct date however the games and plays are stuck on back when the NYY played TB etc..... Does Google Shets not work properly with these formats? Although im probably doing something wrong......
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