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Experiment: NBA Parlay System

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Posted: #1
Hey guys. Because I love NBA and want to test a strategy I think may be profitable, I'm going to run an experiment here on NBA ATS betting.

The money management strategy is the same as Dan's NHL Parlay system. To pick the plays, I generally used my own intuition combined with past ATS results. I've never kept a full-season total on how well I do against the spread using this method, though I think in the past I've won more often than not. We'll see.

I'm using a VERY low investment for this.

Today's Parlay

Chicago -4 + Atlanta +3.5 (1 to win 2.64)



 
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Posted: #2
good luck beef
 
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Posted: #3
I'm actually doing the same thing just waiting on the teams to get a few more games in for stats and to get a read.  I'm new to NBA capping so it's totally experimental.  I enjoy Dan's System of Money Management and I will employ it as well.
 
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Posted: #4

Best of luck. The MM system works well with NBA using your 2 top plays.

I was considering doing this with 1st half plays, but no way will I have time to post (big road trip and 2 week cruise coming up).

 

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Best of luck. The MM system works well with NBA using your 2 top plays.

I was considering doing this with 1st half plays, but no way will I have time to post (big road trip and 2 week cruise coming up).


Dan,

I'd like to pick your brain a little as to why you were considering first half plays as opposed to full game wagers?  Do you have data supporting teams cover the 1H more frequently than the full game?  Thanks for any insight you can provide.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:


Dan,
I'd like to pick your brain a little as to why you were considering first half plays as opposed to full game wagers?  Do you have data supporting teams cover the 1H more frequently than the full game?  Thanks for any insight you can provide.

No data, I've just been doing better playing 1st half lines. Lost too many covers on last minute/second garbage baskets.

I go very light on hoops, just for a little fun.

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #7
Since DR's first successful year posting and sharing this strategy I have adopted it to almost every sport i put action on......although many of the ATS sports i purely go on capping skills & intuition (which sometimes are not the best), the idea and MM is spot on to create above average value to the BR.  Personally I like system rules to help chose the two games, a little less pressure but pretty sure this is my way of blaming the system for the loss rather than myself 

GL Beefman, hope you stack that chedda!
 
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Posted: #8
Hi guys,
I've been theorising a way to use the danrules tonystoffo money management system.
For NBA I've been considering a strategy for playing correlated parlays, and for several reasons which may it may not be true (will have to do a back check to find out) is to play the smallest road dog +/ under the total.
So far this season looks okay, but will have to see past years results before playing or making any judgement.
 
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Posted: #9
69 pts in the first half for Charlotte WTF!!!!
I'm on Chi +2.5 in a teaser, hoping the boys can claw it back too!
 
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Posted: #10
Yeesh. Not sure what happened to Chicago last night. Onward we go.

Today

Tier 2: Cleveland -9.5 + Atlanta -8.5 (2 to win 5.28)

ATS Record: 1-1
Unit Count: -1
Return: -.007%

Bank 1: 73 units
Bank 2: 74 units
Pocket: 0 units
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Best of luck. The MM system works well with NBA using your 2 top plays.

I was considering doing this with 1st half plays, but no way will I have time to post (big road trip and 2 week cruise coming up).

 



Thanks, Dan. You're the man.

What I like about this money management strategy is that compound interest really starts to stack up quickly if you can go a month + without losses. Even if you do lose, your bank pretty much recovers within 2-3 weeks assuming you can avoid a further loss.

However, I'm personally very sensitive losing, so I generally don't like strategies that have you losing a lot more nights than you win. That made it difficult to stick to this last baseball season after I suffered 2-3 losses after the first month and a half.

But as I said, I'm going very light on this (5% of my bankroll to be exact), so I think I can stick with it through the season even if it crashes and burns.


 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:

Hi guys,
I've been theorising a way to use the danrules tonystoffo money management system.
For NBA I've been considering a strategy for playing correlated parlays, and for several reasons which may it may not be true (will have to do a back check to find out) is to play the smallest road dog +/ under the total.
So far this season looks okay, but will have to see past years results before playing or making any judgement.


This will probably be your biggest edge if you're looking for a simple, consistent day-to-day play. This may be a smarter move, as psychology starts to play a role when you're picking your own games. It's a lot harder to weather the downswings if you start to question yourself. However, my plays here are guided by a slight filter (Good ATS teams vs. bad ATS teams) - though I use my own judgement to decide which of these are the best moves on a given night BOL
 
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Posted: #13
How about the good old Lowest total UNDER parlayed with the Highest total OVER, combined with the TonyStoffo | Danrules MM?
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

How about the good old Lowest total UNDER parlayed with the Highest total OVER, combined with the TonyStoffo | Danrules MM?


I'm no good at backtesting, but it may be worth looking at.
 
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Posted: #15
Today

Tier 1 : OKC +1 + Jazz -1 (1.02 to win 2.7)

ATS Record: 3-1
Unit count: +4.28
Return: +2.89%

Bank 1: 75.43 units
Bank 2: 75.43 units
Pocket: 1.43 units
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

How about the good old Lowest total UNDER parlayed with the Highest total OVER, combined with the TonyStoffo | Danrules MM?

I've tested this. You will suffer 8 game losses. Same with lowest total Over and highest Under. 

I have yet to test both Over or both Under. Will do so and report back. 

Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:


I've tested this. You will suffer 8 game losses. Same with lowest total Over and highest Under. 

I have yet to test both Over or both Under. Will do so and report back. 


  Thanks for sharing Dan, appreicate your efforts!
 
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Posted: #18
Today

Tier 2: Wizards -1 + Hawks -3 (2.04 to win 5.4)

ATS Record: 4-2
Unit count: +3.26
Return: 2.2%

Bank 1: 74.41 units
Bank 2: 75.43 units
Pocket: 1.43 units
 
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Posted: #19
Today

Tier 3: Orlando -4 + Milwaukee -5.5 (3.08 to win 8.14)

ATS Record: 5-3
Unit count: +1.22
Return: .82%

Bank 1: 73.19
Bank 2: 75.43
Pocket: 1.43
 
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Posted: #20
can someone point me to the money management specifics that dans nhl parley uses  thanks
 
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Posted: #21
Today

Tier 1: Toronto +2 + Phoenix +8.5 (1.04 to win 2.76)

ATS Record: 7-3
Unit count: +9.36
Return: +6.32%

Bank 1: 77.12 units
Bank 2: 77.12 units
Pocket: 3.12 units
 
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Posted: #22
Today

Tier 2: Clippers -6 + Spurs -8.5

ATS Record: 7-5
Unit count: +8.32
Return: +5.62%

Bank 1: 76.08 units
Bank 2: 77.12 units
Pocket: 3.12 units
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by TheBeefMan:

Today

Tier 2: Clippers -6 + Spurs -8.5

ATS Record: 7-5
Unit count: +8.32
Return: +5.62%

Bank 1: 76.08 units
Bank 2: 77.12 units
Pocket: 3.12 units


Sorry, betting amount is 2.08 to win 5.5
 
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Posted: #24
Today

Tier 3: Wolves +2 + Raptors -8 (3.12 to win 8.26)

ATS Record: 8-6
Unit count: +6.24
Return: +4.22%

Bank 1: 74.04 units
Bank 2: 77.12 units
Pocket: 3.12 units
 
 
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Posted: #25
Today

Tier 4: Detroit +1 + GS -8

ATS Record: 8-8
Unit count: +3.12
Return: +2.1%

Bank 1: 70.92 units
Bank 2: 77.12 units
Pocket: 3.12 units
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