Hitting On Hot Singles (HOTS) - an NHL betting system

Ok, so plays for tonight are:

For all games HF1-0, HD4-0, AF1-0, AD2-0, AD4-0. I will not post the games or the odds or anything, takes too much time. I might not even follow the units won/lost, as it takes too much time too. Doesnt really matter if I follow them or not, I think. Let me know if you think otherwise.

Also, if a game has the score of AD3-0 above a certain threshold and fills a certain criteria (Im thinking 70 (+6900) or more and if its the same or bigger than AD2-0) then we will play it too. Columbus 3-0 for today fills that criteria.

We will try to tweak little things like this even more, to get more value here and there to try to increase the ROI even more.

Under plays are coming later if there are any,

My posts keep disappearing on a celly but lets try once more. Basically just noticing how this scattered shutout version takes quite a lot of fun from following the games, as one has to fear so many scores depending on the game. Hence I might go back to the original of 1-0, 2-0, 0-1, 0-2 and maybe add the 0-0 too. To bring back the fun on the expense of the higher ROI in the long run. We shall see. Some comments woul certainly be needed. This system is easy to calculate from all various aspects. I might just need some advice on what to look at. I am still open to changes. Our goal is to play this system already next year with a much bigger bet sizeing. Now is a perfect time to test this when we are still risking only a little.

Test.

Ok, the post appeared now, great :)

So lets do some more calculations. I left all my stats at home as I am away but am going to recreate the SDQL queries needed and calculate some things:

From 2006 - 2015:
HF 4 times 0-0, odds of ca 100
HF 15 times score of 1-0, odds of ca 68
HF 15 x 2-0, 40
AF 1 x 0-0, 100
AF 3 x 1-0, 65
AF 1 x 2-0, 40
HD 1 x 0-0, 100
HD 1 x 1-0, 70
HD 2 x 2-0, 45
AD 1 x 0-0, 100
AD 7 x 1-0, 75
AD 15 x 2-0, 60

The odds could be a tad off, but are close. Those are decimal, so e.g. 70 = +6900 American.

The query I used was (and various variations of it): AF and playoffs = 1 and goals = 1 and o:goals = 0

So altogether 67 of scores 0-0 to 2-0 in 10 years. So ca 7 per year. I am going to leave out the scores from 3-0 and up because while 3-0 comes up as often as 1-0 or 2-0, the odds are just too low to make it profitable in the long run.

So lets calculate some options with those stats.

1. If we play all (0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-1 and 0-2 for 0,1 units): We hit ca 7 times per season. The odds are ca 60 (+5900). We win 42 units (not counting units invested into those games). We invest altogether 44 units (ca 88 games, 0,5 units per game). So we make a loss of 2 units.
2. We play just the 1-0 for favorites. We hit ca 1,8 times. Odds are ca 67 (+6600). We win ca 12 units. We invest altogether 8,8 units. We make a profit of 3,2 units.
3. We play all 1-0 scores. We hit ca 2,6 times. Odds are ca 70 (+6900). We win  ca 18,2 units. We invest altogether 17,6 units. Profit of 0,6 units.

Any other possible options when looking at those amount of games ending in a specific scores and those odds?

Lets check all max 2-0 scores per season:
2016: so far 2
2015: 6
2014: 8
2013: 7
2012: 7
2011: 7
2010: 11
2009: 3
2008: 3
2007: 5
2006: 8

The query I used was (and variations of it): playoffs = 1 and goals < 3 and o:goals = 0 and season = 2006

So what I will do now is:
1. I will stop the shotgun shutouts (of 1-0, 4-0, 0-2, 0-4, 0-1 in different games). It just takes the joy out of following the games.
2. We will decide between a. doing the all games all scores (0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-1, 0-2) and b. all 1-0 scores, and  c. favs 1-0.
3. We will try to stick with our choice unless we think of more variations or ways of making this more profitable.
4. I might post (this post basically, as it has all needed info) as a new thread to this or another forum, as this system needs comments so that it can be improved already for next year.

You can use those queries to check the O/U for the shutouts, the odds etc. etc. I hope someone can find another angle to this. I hope someone with more experience than me can take a look at those stats and find something good. I appreciate all help.

The bookies are adjusting the odds now that there are altogether three 1-0/2-0 games in the playoffs. What started out as odds of ca 68 for the favorites to win 1-0 is now down to ca 50.

Lets calculate how it affects our second options of favs 1-0:
2. We play just the 1-0 for favorites, 0,1 units per bet. We hit ca 1,8 times. Odds are ca 50 (+4900). We win ca 9 units. We invest altogether 8,8 units. We make a profit of 0,2 units.

Im not sure if this system is worth playing now that the good odds are no longer there. It seems that a problem with this type of system (the same with the Under system) is that when there are so few games and so few teams playing and they play each other all the time, the reaction from bookies to the odds and from the public to the scores is very fast and "correct". During a longer season its easier to get good odds all season long.

Calculated some other options as well and nothing seems playable anymore.

I think that we will abandon this system for now and try to see what to do first of all during the regular season and secondly during the playoffs. We might e.g. risk a lot during the first two or three evenings and just see if we make a quick buck before the bookies start adjusting the odds. Will be fun to backtest too, to see if tehre is such a thing as lots of shutouts during the e.g. first 3 nights during all last 10 seasons :)

The same with the Under system. We might just go big with Under 4,5 the first two or three nights and then just abandon it. We can certainly do the whole season if we find an angle for it. Loads of more data of games too, ca 15 times more, so we will see much more trends there. I will open the thread I mentioned in the previous post for the next season closer to season starting.

So farewell for now! I have an MLB system coming up and its not the same as I have been testing in nfl_huskers' thread. I will though follow the system that is almost the same as nfl_huskers' one in his thread.

I have sadly also been "forced" to stop tailing various systems either because backtesting have shown them to not be profitable, or the person has stopped doing the system, or I cant do the system because of time difference. I still want to play something though. We shall see what to do.

I got banned again. Would you like to exchange email? I believe I'm done over there

Scrivero