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Hitting On Hot Singles (HOTS) - an NHL betting system

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Prospect
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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by sedwards3553:

BOL with this as you continue. I had a system somewhat similar to this that I was using earlier this season. It made me over 30 units the first two weeks trying it, only to forfeit 24 of those units right back the very next week. Very frustrating.


Thanks man! I started this on 10th of January, went up 16 units in 10 days (well, 21 units altogehter with the doubles/triples) and now have lost 7 units (8 with doubles/triples). I feel you, very very fluctuating. I would love to hear your system if it was similar to this and even more fluctuating with the ups and downs. I like the sounds of it!

Did you find a way to escape that huge variance? And should I stop this one now that Im up

Lets leave the early goal system and the bookie mistakes system out of the daily stats for now, as those are played so rarely.

Stats for the Over/Under system (after 13 days):
+83,9 dollars (singles), +124,0 dollars (singles and parlays)

Today's bets, 10 dollars on each game:

1. Hurricanes-Capital Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115)
2. Panthers-Coyotes Under 4,5 with odds 2,25 (+125)
3. SJ-Colorado Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125)

Triple of all three with 2 bucks with odds 10,88 (+908,8).

Lets get back to winning tonight! 2/3 would be a nice start
 
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Posted: #77
RESULTS:
Today's bets, 10 dollars on each game:

1. Hurricanes-Capital Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) WIN!!
2. Panthers-Coyotes Under 4,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) WIN!!
3. SJ-Colorado Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) WIN!!

Triple of all three with 2 bucks with odds 10,88 (+908,8). WIN!!

3/3 right, and the Triple right, nice! Profit of +56,26 bucks, great!

Stats for the Over/Under system (after 14 days):
+120,4 dollars (singles), +180,26 dollars (singles and parlays)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #78
Today's bets, 10 dollars on each game:

1. Detroit-Boston Over 5,5 with odds 2,27 (+127)
2. Kings-Devils Under 4,5 with odds 2,15 (+115)
3. Calgary-Montreal Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 (+120)
4. Washington-Ottawa Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115)
5. Buffalo-Nashville Over 5,5 with odds 2,30 (+130)
6. TB-Chicago Under 4,5 with odds 2,25 (+125)

Lets go for 4/6, that would be nice
 
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Posted: #79
Nice Call  4 out of 6  and plus units...
BOL
 
Prospect
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by PuckHog:

Nice Call  4 out of 6  and plus units...
BOL

Thanks man!

RESULTS:
Today's bets, 10 dollars on each game:
1. Detroit-Boston Over 5,5 with odds 2,27 (+127) WIN!!
2. Kings-Devils Under 4,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) WIN!!
3. Calgary-Montreal Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 (+120) WIN!!
4. Washington-Ottawa Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) LOSS
5. Buffalo-Nashville Over 5,5 with odds 2,30 (+130) WIN!!
6. TB-Chicago Under 4,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) LOSS

As PuckHog mentioned, 4/6 right! Profit of +29,2 bucks, ca 3 units. Perfect!

Stats for the Over/Under system (after 15 days):
+149,6 dollars (singles), +209,46 dollars (singles and parlays)

We are back on +++++EV. Lets stay there!
 
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Posted: #81
Today's bets, 10 dollars on each game:
1. Vancouver-Colorado Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125)
2. Edmonton-Anaheim Over 5,5 with odds 2,27 (+127)

Double of both with 5 bucks with odds 5,11 (+411).

We have to go for 2/2, these 2-game rounds have been soooooo good to us.
 
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Posted: #82
What percentage of our BTW should we bet?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by littleogre:

What percentage of our BTW should we bet?

I am not familiar with BTW as a betting term, so I just assume that you are asking about how much of your BR should you bet. Do let me know what BTW means in this case, if it does not refer to BR.

So if you are asking about the % of your BR you should put on each bet... Well, I am doing at the moment ca 3 % Of my BR (BR for this system only) for each individual game. On the biggest days I am hence putting in 3 % x 8 games, that is 24 % of my BR in to an evening of 8 games. On average 3 % x 5 games, 15 % per evening.

When I lost 8 units in 3 night (10 dollar units) I was after that putting 5 % per game (still 10 bucks per game) because if my BR going down. I was and am still willing to lose up to 30 units more from my current situation. If I lose that, I quit the system. That is why I dont decrease the stakes.

So the answer: Bet as much as you can afford without going broke in 3 or 4 evenings (or how many evenings of possible losing you want to calculate in). It would be wise to also bet less when the BR gets smaller, to always bet e.g. 2 % of BR per game (to avoid ever going broke). I dont want to do that though. I am testing the system and dont really mind going broke fast, as the system might not even work. I still want to win good if it does work, hence I am doing it with 10 bucks per game and not like 1 buck per game.

Not sure if I answered your question, but thats how I see the BR vs betting %
 
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Posted: #84
Sorry it took me a few days to reply. I simply determined probability by looking under Scores & Matchups. I would look at each team's last ten and last ten head-to-head. That would equal 30 games (my denominator). If I wanted the Cap's probability to beat the Wings in regulation, I would count how many times the Caps had won in regulation head-to-head, then in general. I would add that to how many times the Wings had lost in regulation. The sum of those three categories would give me my numerator. So if it came out something like 12/30, I would deduce the Caps as 40% likely to win regulation. I was then comparing my probability to the implied probability based off the odds the books had listed.

It worked very well for a while, then it just gave up on me. A lot of OT games or my #s picking the wrong side. It worked really well for overs at first, particularly o6's. It never performed well on unders. Overs still do fairly well using it.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #85
TY for the explanation Scrivero
 
Prospect
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by sedwards3553:

Sorry it took me a few days to reply. I simply determined probability by looking under Scores & Matchups. I would look at each team's last ten and last ten head-to-head. That would equal 30 games (my denominator). If I wanted the Cap's probability to beat the Wings in regulation, I would count how many times the Caps had won in regulation head-to-head, then in general. I would add that to how many times the Wings had lost in regulation. The sum of those three categories would give me my numerator. So if it came out something like 12/30, I would deduce the Caps as 40% likely to win regulation. I was then comparing my probability to the implied probability based off the odds the books had listed.

It worked very well for a while, then it just gave up on me. A lot of OT games or my #s picking the wrong side. It worked really well for overs at first, particularly o6's. It never performed well on unders. Overs still do fairly well using it.

Thank you for the info! Would you mind counting one example game for us one of these nights? So that we could see it in use. But it sounds very interesting! For me the unders are also a bit of a problem (as in Overs have won much more). But I will keep doing both until I have some good data where I see Undes are losing me money.

What kind of odds did you nornally get by the way? E.g. -110 or +110 mostly. All my odds are minimum +115 so Im going against the common trends with the over/unders I guess. So I just have to hope that the trends are not a good indicator of the future goal amounts.
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by littleogre:

TY for the explanation Scrivero

No problem :)

RESULTS:
Today's bets, 10 dollars on each game:
1. Vancouver-Colorado Over 5,5 with odds 2,25 (+125) LOSS
2. Edmonton-Anaheim Over 5,5 with odds 2,27 (+127) LOSS

Double of both with 5 bucks with odds 5,11 (+411). LOSS

Lost 25 bucks, not liking it, but it happens.

Stats for the Over/Under system (after 16 days):
+129,6 dollars (singles), +184,46 dollars (singles and parlays)

10 dollars on each game:
1. TB-Florida Over 5,5 with odds 2,28 (+128)
2. Kings-Hurricanes Under 4,5 with odds 2,15 (+115)
3. Blues-Wild Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 (+120)
4. Columbus-Nashville Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115)
5. Oilers-Sharks Over 5,5 with odds 2,30 (+130)
6. Vancouver-Arizona Under 4,5 with odds 2,30 (+130)

No estimates tonight, lets just see how it goes
 
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Posted: #88
I would move 5's to o5.5 and sometimes o6. I was getting anywhere from +105 to +190. I was lucky enough to hit a u4.5 for +256 once.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by sedwards3553:

I would move 5's to o5.5 and sometimes o6. I was getting anywhere from +105 to +190. I was lucky enough to hit a u4.5 for +256 once.

Ok, nice! I probably should check more sites than the one I use, to see if I could get better odds somewhere else. That is because the highest odds Ive seen so far for te ca 60 games has been +140, with the average being ca +124. And these are all Over 5,5 and Under 4,5 (60 minutes, no OT/Shootout).
 
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Posted: #90
I am up at game time for once... So lets check where we are with the games:

10 dollars on each game:
1. TB-Florida Over 5,5 with odds 2,28 (+128) Needs 4 more goals in 16 minutes. Not gonna happen.
2. Kings-Hurricanes Under 4,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) WIN!!
3. Blues-Wild Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 (+120) Needs 3 more in 27 minutes. Possible.
4. Columbus-Nashville Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) Needs 3 more in 27 minutes. Possible.
5. Oilers-Sharks Over 5,5 with odds 2,30 (+130) Not started.
6. Vancouver-Arizona Under 4,5 with odds 2,30 (+130) Can go 4 more in 45 minutes, looks ok.

Stressfull to follow the games while theyre on. Easier to just check the account in the morning. Lets still follow for fun :)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #91
Following:

10 dollars on each game:
1. TB-Florida Over 5,5 with odds 2,28 (+128) LOSS
2. Kings-Hurricanes Under 4,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) WIN!!
3. Blues-Wild Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 (+120) WIN!!
4. Columbus-Nashville Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) WIN!!
5. Oilers-Sharks Over 5,5 with odds 2,30 (+130) Just started, needs 5 more goals.
6. Vancouver-Arizona Under 4,5 with odds 2,30 (+130) Can score 3 more in 20 minutes. I like the odds of that.

So we are 3/6 so far, so we are in profit already. 2 games still going. 4/6 would be nice, 5/6 would be ggggrreeaaat.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #92
Great job. I'm jealous of your success with the u4.5's.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by sedwards3553:

Great job. I'm jealous of your success with the u4.5's.

Thanks man :) The unders were awesome this round. And it doesnt really matter whose system it is as long as it works (which this has not proven yet). So join in the fun and try this system I would love to join more similar repeatable systems any day! I will try to find more and will follow for sure if you or others come up with some. Im looking at a system where I would bet moneyline all games with e.g. +140 or more...

RESULTS:
10 dollars on each game:
1. TB-Florida Over 5,5 with odds 2,28 (+128) LOSS
2. Kings-Hurricanes Under 4,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) WIN!!
3. Blues-Wild Over 5,5 with odds 2,20 (+120) WIN!!
4. Columbus-Nashville Over 5,5 with odds 2,15 (+115) WIN!!
5. Oilers-Sharks Over 5,5 with odds 2,30 (+130) LOSS
6. Vancouver-Arizona Under 4,5 with odds 2,30 (+130) WIN!!

4/6, a lot of games were pretty close too, couldve easily been 2 or 5 right. Profit of +28 bucks.

We also tried the early goal system and bet 5 bucks for Edmonton ton win three-way when they were down 1 goal after 5 minutes. Odds were 6,5 (+550), which I thought was pretty crazy. I still like that system, although I can rarely use it. Gonna add the all systems stats some day soon to see where we are.

Stats for the Over/Under system (after 17 days):
+157,6 dollars (singles), +212,46 dollars (singles and parlays)

Today we try the second test of our Finnish Liiga Over 4,5 goals with 2,3 (+130) odds on Jukurit-Kärpät. We are 1/1 there. No other playable games so far there, 2,15 (+115) odds are hard to find anywhere besides NHL, they are nowhere to be found on NBA either because they make the Over/Under so even for each match.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #94
More and more assured that the Over/Unders are coin flips. My second Liiga test ended to a loss, but they scored 3 goals already after 12 minutes. Couldnt get 2 more so thats that. Must try to find more coin flips with ++++odds.

See you again on tuesday! All star break is coming :)
 
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Posted: #95
Stay away from all things NBA. Rigged league where refs and players bet on games they are participating in.

Everything in sports with odds less than -400 is pretty much a coin flip, in my opinion. That's why it's important to always take + odds, even if it's only +100. This will help you still have good potential for profit without even winning 50% of your wagers.

Do you ever go to sportsbookreview.com forums?

 
Prospect
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by sedwards3553:

Stay away from all things NBA. Rigged league where refs and players bet on games they are participating in.

Everything in sports with odds less than -400 is pretty much a coin flip, in my opinion. That's why it's important to always take + odds, even if it's only +100. This will help you still have good potential for profit without even winning 50% of your wagers.

Do you ever go to sportsbookreview.com forums?


Thanks for the tip about NBA. I will play anything for fun, but for bigger plays and systems I must stay in ice-hockey for now, as following it actively for 25 years makes it easier to see and try systems. I would probably see mostly bad systems in other sports as of now.

Good to hear that someone has the same, or even more radical, opinion about the coin flips. And winning 50 % of wagers in the long run is basically where I hope to end up, betting the way I am.

Never been to those forums, first time today. I found the hockey betting forum. What should I look at on those pages/forums? Anything really useful?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #97
Yes. Flea Hotel has been very sharp so far. He is up around 23 units so far. He posts 1-2 plays per day, mostly team totals.

I have a thread on there as well. Get this; my overall record is 51-79-2. Yet, I am +16.37 units. I'm trying very hard to get closer to 50% on my selections, but it's hard. I take several puck lines and even reverse puck lines.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #98
Im gonna check out Flea Hotel for sure, I assume its in hockey betting.

I cehcked out your threads, cool stuff! And that profits is nuts with that record, sounds like it works.

I think I want to try something similar to your team totals stuff, but just have the plusodds as I enjoy them the most. I will probably register and come comment on some of that stuff, always helps to understand the things more when one becomes involved.
 
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Posted: #99
Yes, the Flea thread is under NHL betting section.

I would love to see any improvements you have on the team total chase system. I've not even backtested it yet, so I'm not sure where it will wind up.
 
 
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Posted: #100
Update to all the systems:

1. Over/Under system (after 17 days):
+157,6 dollars (15,76 units) (singles), +212,46 dollars (21,25 units) (singles and parlays)

Record:
Singles hitting so far: 40-33: +157,6 dollars
Doubles hitting so far: 3-2 +45,10 dollars
Triples hitting so far: 1-2 +9,76 dollars

2. Early goal system (after 31 days): 4-2 +97,50 dollars (9,75 units)

3. Bookie mistakes system (after 31 days): 29,55 dollars
- I will stop this system and just play any bookie mistakes I see in any case. No sense in following this system.

I will also start talking about units from now on and in the future. Of course people already know that my unit is 10 bucks, but still, no one needs to really know much I am winning or losing monetarily.
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