when you put the two units on huston .... do we factor in the juice we lost to on top of the 2 units or just play the 2 units and hope we get it back on the + line
You are free to do how you feel, I used to just play the flat 2 UNITS but to be honest, I have never really thought about that... 
Maybe this is something I should consider...good point, but for now I will stick with the 2 UNITS flat
GL everyone
Ok, I didnt point that out exactly, in the first post I mention that when you delete Washington from that equation the sweep factor goes down to 6-8%...I intended to say with this that I am not playing them...sorry for not being to detailed there..
Thanks for the English comment, I appreciate it 
Just to make sure I got you correct with respect to the ATS comment: When taking the runline you mean I should see how much money they made over the course of the season right? I mean, compared to the NBA or NFL where you have point spreads I dont know where the difference between the WL record and the ATS should be...
Hope you can help me here...
YTD 8-3
+2.88 UNITS
Yesterday 1-2
-1.8 UNITS
Wasnt the best day yesterday as Houstons bullpen blew it in the last two innings...oh well, we have just seen the first home sweep of the season, from a statistic point of view we should have some room to improve from here
Todays picks will follow later
If I may-
I think you need to add a filter or stay on course rather than use the Run Line in heavy favorite situations that are clearly going to avg -180 or worse on the money line for the seasom. If a play requires the run line, it should probably be dropped.
Now, chasing a favorite in hockey will inevitably require big cohounas because the money line can run so high, but baseball money lines are rarely going to be consistently over -180 on avg due to the overall parody in winning % compared to other sports. This system will run LOTS of plays all year, and my guess is you are only removing 1-2 plays a week at best.
OR
Just follow the system strictly. No Run Lines.
Now, i don't want to come off as sure or arrogant, I have not filtered those statistics so I don't know- but the guidelines to find out are fairly simple to backdate, and the concept of dropping high ML from a system is surely not an original idea, especially in systems with lots of plays.
Obviously, I am reacting towards the TB/Balt plays. I took the ML yesterday after bouncing the RL off the wall in game 1. I have not filtered any information to verify this claim of mine, but, through my experiences, any good system that filters the bottom off usually has something for to filter the top teams for odds purposes... I'm not a big fan of chasing -200 or worse.... so I won't be this season, and I will be reducing any high risk series to tracking only until stastics on ML/RL decisions becomes clearer.
BOL and thanks for spurring the gambling mind!! looking forward to tomorrow!
If I may-
I think you need to add a filter or stay on course rather than use the Run Line in heavy favorite situations that are clearly going to avg -180 or worse on the money line for the seasom. If a play requires the run line, it should probably be dropped.
Now, chasing a favorite in hockey will inevitably require big cohounas because the money line can run so high, but baseball money lines are rarely going to be consistently over -180 on avg due to the overall parody in winning % compared to other sports. This system will run LOTS of plays all year, and my guess is you are only removing 1-2 plays a week at best.
OR
Just follow the system strictly. No Run Lines.
Now, i don't want to come off as sure or arrogant, I have not filtered those statistics so I don't know- but the guidelines to find out are fairly simple to backdate, and the concept of dropping high ML from a system is surely not an original idea, especially in systems with lots of plays.
Obviously, I am reacting towards the TB/Balt plays. I took the ML yesterday after bouncing the RL off the wall in game 1. I have not filtered any information to verify this claim of mine, but, through my experiences, any good system that filters the bottom off usually has something for to filter the top teams for odds purposes... I'm not a big fan of chasing -200 or worse.... so I won't be this season, and I will be reducing any high risk series to tracking only until stastics on ML/RL decisions becomes clearer.
BOL and thanks for spurring the gambling mind!! looking forward to tomorrow!
YTD 9-3
+4.98 UNITS
Yesterday 1-0
+ 2.1 UNITS
I just found out I didnt post my line here, I have posted it in the Baseball section but not here, I had CIN @ +105, so the 2 UNITS made me +2,1 UNITS for the night...friday is gonna be packed, so buckle up and get ready for a wild ride with (probably) a lot of favs... 
By the way, besides the system, is anyone on the Phillies tonight?
hey,Call,did I correct that: for the first 20 game,you use the final standings of the last year,and without any change when a team win or lost.and from the 21 games,you could use the current standings,and the groups will change after game by game?
and why just divide the 30 teams to 3 groups?why not divide it to 4,5 or 6 group?do you do any research on it?
thank you
Ive got a confession to make. I went ahead and played a 2 game chase on the Nats! YEEHAW!!!
May god forgive you for that mistake 
I did it allready, nice pick bud 
During the last year, I have just blown too much money on the f**ckers and I have sworn myself I will never play the Nats again...they have just cost you in each and every season...
But if you have a feeling for tem, I am sure there will be spots where its profitable to pick them...but not on a systems base...
hey,Call,did I correct that: for the first 20 game,you use the final standings of the last year,and without any change when a team win or lost.and from the 21 games,you could use the current standings,and the groups will change after game by game?
and why just divide the 30 teams to 3 groups?why not divide it to 4,5 or 6 group?do you do any research on it?
thank you
Hey straya,
I just picked the no 20 in the last season, there is no real deal to that number...I will check how it looks after 15 games, would be easier since roughly 5 series should be over than...
With respect to an increase in the no of groups: I have never checked that, my first impression tells me that a) it would dramatically increase the complexitiy of the system and b) I think this change would reduce the no of games played...and the system lives of the large amount of games...
Today we will probably see the biggest no of games during the course of the season, its going to be 9 or 10 games 
I will be back later with details...
YTD 9-3
+4.98 UNITS
Yesterday 1-0
+ 2.1 UNITS
Todays plays as following:
COL (RL) +115@ Matchbook, Risking 1 UNIT to win 1,15 UNITS
SF +110 @ Matchbook, Risking 1 UNIT to win 1,1 UNITS
CIN -129 @ Matchbook, Risking 1,29 UNITS to win 1 UNIT
NYM -132 @ Matchbook, Risking 1,32 UNITS to win 1 UNIT
FLA +111 @ Matchbook, Risking 1 UNIT to win 1,11 UNITS
ARI -135 @ Matchbook, Risking 1,35 UNITS to win 1 UNIT
DET -144 @ Matchbook, Risking 1,44 UNITS to win 1 UNIT
TEX -148 @ matchbook, Risking 1,48 UNITS to win 1 UNIT
LAA -126 @ Matchbook, Risking 1,26 UNITS to win 1 UNIT
Thats it for today, hopefully the card will be empty tomorrow 
BOL everyone
Its once again the same thing you can argue about: Bal (group 3) is facing Toronto, who are even with OAK and SD and could be in Group 2 as well...its just mixed right now in the beginning of the season...White Sox same thing with MIn who could be counted to group 1 as well...
Dude, please look at their records, in the groups I posted here they are in the same group, yes, but only because (as I stated there) I tried to copy the whole thing from excel which didnt work. TOR has the same record as SD and OAK, therefore you can say they all tie for rank 20 which would make them a group 2 team...I dont get why you fight my posts this way...when you have a problem with it, dont read it...I am trying my best to explain it here...just give it 2 or 3 weeks and we dont have these problems anymore since during the course of a season you seldom have these problems again... 
and one more thing: do you really think I like all 9 matchups??? with the lines given??? be honest, no one would bet 9 games a day (just from liking all the lines, thats really nonsense...) I play 9 games because thats what my system tells me to...and for setups that are not clear (as the two I left out) I wait for the possible setup for game 2...
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