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IRAGE ODDS BUSTER STRATEGY

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Prospect
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Posted: #501
irage, I don't see how Phillie would be a play, they currently sit at about +120, I know game time isn't for a few hours but still..
 
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Posted: #502
Quote Originally Posted by peter1988:

irage, I don't see how Phillie would be a play, they currently sit at about +120, I know game time isn't for a few hours but still..


You're right, they were a play this morning, but then the odds shifted around 10a making them not a play. I didn't like them anyway. Smelled funny.
 
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Posted: #503
THE DOG AND PONY SHOW!
1. No bet if the line is higher than -110 for either team. Some exceptions made for -111, but I'll review as needed.
2. Wait for the line movements to stop, some times moves happen up to 2-3 minutes before game time.
3. Take the DOG
4. Avoid games where the DOG is going to sweep a series.
5. Avoid games where there is a lot of line movement.

6/3 - Phillies - LOSS
6/3 - Brewers - LOSS
6/3 - Rangers - WIN
6/3 - Cardinals - LOSS
6/5 - Toronto - WIN
6/5 - Padres - WIN
6/8 - Washington - WIN
6/8 - Tampa Bay - WIN
6/10 - Cleveland - WIN
6/10 - Dodgers - WIN
6/12 - Oakland - WIN
6/12 - Philly - LOSS
6/13 - Boston v Miami - NO PLAY Weird Line Movements
6/13 - Brewers - LOSS
6/15 - Brewers - WIN
6/16 - Phillies - LOSS
6/18 - Brewers - WIN
6/18 - Giants - WIN
6/22 - St. Louis - WIN
6/22 - Seattle - LOSS
6/23 - Houston - WIN
 
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Posted: #504
RUN LINE STRATEGY
Take favorite RL between -180 and -230

INTERLEAGUE
6/9 - WhiteSox - WIN
6/10 - Yankees - LOSS
6/13 - Giants - WIN
6/14 - Detroit - WIN
6/15 - Texas - WIN
6/16 - Texas - WIN
6/17 - Detroit - WIN
6/17 - St. Louis - LOSS
6/17 - Texas - WIN
6/18 - Yankees - WIN
6/18 - Arizona - WIN
6/19 - Philadelphia - WIN
6/19 - WhiteSox - LOSS
6/19 - Angels - WIN
6/22 - Boston - LOSS
6/22 - Yankees - LOSS
6/22 - Texas - WIN
6/23 - Cincinnati - WIN
6/23 - Arizona - PENDING

13 - 5

That's one made up from yesterday.
 
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Posted: #505
so then this RL strategy will close out tomorrow since interleague ends after tomorrow?
 
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Posted: #506
 Run lines will continue, Interleague just happened to produce alot of winners.

RUN LINE STRATEGY
Take favorite RL between -180 and -230

INTERLEAGUE
6/9 - WhiteSox - WIN
6/10 - Yankees - LOSS
6/13 - Giants - WIN
6/14 - Detroit - WIN
6/15 - Texas - WIN
6/16 - Texas - WIN
6/17 - Detroit - WIN
6/17 - St. Louis - LOSS
6/17 - Texas - WIN
6/18 - Yankees - WIN
6/18 - Arizona - WIN
6/19 - Philadelphia - WIN
6/19 - WhiteSox - LOSS
6/19 - Angels - WIN
6/22 - Boston - LOSS
6/22 - Yankees - LOSS
6/22 - Texas - WIN
6/23 - Cincinnati - WIN
6/23 - Arizona - WIN

14 - 5
 
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Posted: #507
Winners all around yesterday. That was nice.

RUN LINE STRATEGY
Take favorite RL between -180 and -230

INTERLEAGUE
6/9 - WhiteSox - WIN
6/10 - Yankees - LOSS
6/13 - Giants - WIN
6/14 - Detroit - WIN
6/15 - Texas - WIN
6/16 - Texas - WIN
6/17 - Detroit - WIN
6/17 - St. Louis - LOSS
6/17 - Texas - WIN
6/18 - Yankees - WIN
6/18 - Arizona - WIN
6/19 - Philadelphia - WIN
6/19 - WhiteSox - LOSS
6/19 - Angels - WIN
6/22 - Boston - LOSS
6/22 - Yankees - LOSS
6/22 - Texas - WIN
6/23 - Cincinnati - WIN
6/23 - Arizona - WIN
6/24 - Detroit - PENDING
6/24 - Texas - PENDING

14 - 5


 
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Posted: #508

I quickly went through and did some backed testing.  Request someone confirm or deny these results of testing the RL line.  Using last yrs closing odds listed on covers under the baseball scores matchup for RL.  This excluded interleague..using the parameters -180 to -230.

May 2011

wins 8 and loses 22

June 2011

8 wins and 5 loses

July 2011

15 wins and 17 loses.

 

 

 
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Posted: #509
Obviously, we need to apply some filters to improve the numbers.

April 2011

4/1 - Colorado -200 - LOSS
4/2 - Yankees -182 - WIN
4/2 - Tampa Bay -184 - LOSS
4/3 - Philadelphia -200 - WIN
4/5 - Yankees -203 - LOSS
4/5 - Philadelphia -181 - LOSS
4/6 - St. Louis -185 - LOSS
4/10 - Angels -190 - WIN
4/13 - Philadelphia -183 - LOSS
4/14 - Yankees -183 - LOSS
4/16 - Boston -200 - WIN
4/17 - Boston -227 - WIN
4/17 - Atlanta -188 - LOSS
4/17 - Philadelphia -182 - LOSS
4/19 - Philadelphia -200 - LOSS
4/19 - Florida -194 - WIN
4/19 - Texas -180 - LOSS
4/20 - Philadelphia -190 - LOSS
4/22 - Milwaukee -202 - WIN
4/23 - Texas -202 - WIN
4/24 - Texas -204 - LOSS
4/24 - Philadelphia -182 - WIN
4/25 - Yankees -196 - LOSS
4/27 - Detroit -207 - LOSS
4/28 - Boston -181 - WIN
4/28 - Yankees -200 - WIN
4/29 - Boston -180 - LOSS
4/29 - Colorado -190 - LOSS
4/30 - Philadelphia -199 - LOSS
4/30 - Boston -181 - LOSS

11 - 18
 
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Posted: #510
texas still a play ?
 
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Posted: #511
If it's in the list it's a play. If it changes I will update the play.

WTF, Rangers shutout Colorado for 8 innings and now they let them score. Some games are just a head scratcher.
 
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Posted: #512
That wraps up the inter-league play. Not a bad run.

RUN LINE STRATEGY
Take favorite RL between -180 and -230

INTERLEAGUE
6/9 - WhiteSox - WIN
6/10 - Yankees - LOSS
6/13 - Giants - WIN
6/14 - Detroit - WIN
6/15 - Texas - WIN
6/16 - Texas - WIN
6/17 - Detroit - WIN
6/17 - St. Louis - LOSS
6/17 - Texas - WIN
6/18 - Yankees - WIN
6/18 - Arizona - WIN
6/19 - Philadelphia - WIN
6/19 - WhiteSox - LOSS
6/19 - Angels - WIN
6/22 - Boston - LOSS
6/22 - Yankees - LOSS
6/22 - Texas - WIN
6/23 - Cincinnati - WIN
6/23 - Arizona - WIN
6/24 - Detroit - LOSS
6/24 - Texas - WIN

15 - 6
 
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Posted: #513
today?
 
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Posted: #514
irage - lots off potential plays on the docket - but wihout your filters - not sure which to play
 
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Posted: #515

THE DOG AND PONY SHOW!
1. No bet if the line is higher than -110 for either team.
Some exceptions made for -111, but I'll review as needed.
2. Wait for the line movements to stop, some times moves happen up to 2-3 minutes before game time.
3. Take the DOG
4. Avoid games where the DOG is going to sweep a series.
5. Avoid games where there is a lot of line movement.

6/3 - Phillies - LOSS
6/3 - Brewers - LOSS
6/3 - Rangers - WIN
6/3 - Cardinals - LOSS
6/5 - Toronto - WIN
6/5 - Padres - WIN
6/8 - Washington - WIN
6/8 - Tampa Bay - WIN
6/10 - Cleveland - WIN
6/10 - Dodgers - WIN
6/12 - Oakland - WIN
6/12 - Philly - LOSS
6/13 - Boston v Miami - NO PLAY Weird Line Movements
6/13 - Brewers - LOSS
6/15 - Brewers - WIN
6/16 - Phillies - LOSS
6/18 - Brewers - WIN
6/18 - Giants - WIN
6/22 - St. Louis - WIN
6/22 - Seattle - LOSS
6/23 - Houston - WIN
6/25 - Angels - Check lines during warmup
6/25 - Tampa Bay - Check lines during warmup
6/25 - Minnesota - Check lines during warmup
6/25 - Seattle is off, unless Oakland becomes the DOG

 
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Posted: #516
Personally, I like Tampa Bay and Oakland. I am staying away from the Yankees game, they should crush the Indians, but something stinks here and AROD is not in the lineup.
 
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Posted: #517

Correction, should be Dodgers not Angels.

6/25 - Dodgers - Check lines during warmup

 
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Posted: #518
971972
White Sox (Peavy, J) -1½ +150 OV 7½-110 -108
Twins (Liriano, F) +1½ -170 UN 7½-110 -102

CWS went from -130 to -108. Liriano has had 2 good outings. MIN should be a play. No?

 
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Posted: #519
Wow, when did that line drop. It must of happened shortly before game time. Did you jump on that? That's a no brainer when lines drop close just before game, it means the action increased on the DOG.

I wish I would have caught that.
 
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Posted: #520
Oh I did have that game.
 
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Posted: #521
OAK just became the dog!
 
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Posted: #522

Now both -103??? wierd...

 
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Posted: #523
I hammered Oakland.

6/25 - Kansas City - WIN
6/25 - Minnesota - PENDING
6/25 - Oakland - PENDING
 
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Posted: #524

I thought you are taking TB????

 

 

 
 
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Posted: #525
This system is fuking awesome but we don't get plays until like 1 min before game
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