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Kelly Criterion put to the test.

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Ok I'm going to use the kelly criterion for at least a year using 57% winners and see where it takes me.  For people who don't understand kelly Criterion this will roughly be 10% of my bankroll and one bet at a time.  I understand I am probably overestimating my win % but the plays will be few and taking from myself and other handicappers.  Basically they are going to be spot plays.  Anyone is welcome to follow.  Im basically doing this  to prove to myself what I can accomplish or anyone that is willing to learn with me.

Starting Bankroll $2,000  I will be using one book which will be Bookmaker.  I know I wont get all the lines I want and I also know ill have my critics.  Time will only prove where this thread will go.  Historically I know exactly where but I will be very selective and will try and make the best with my investment.  Im not asking for any help or any suggestions this is how it is and if I fail its on me.  Go Blue!!!  I will post my plays at least 30 minutes prior to gametime. 

 
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Posted: #2

Play one

Under 66.5 Boise State Fresno State

Risking 194.00 to win 176.36

 
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Posted: #3
easier said than done...will check back though.
 
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Posted: #4

Good Start - Cold weather leads to low scores

 
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Posted: #5

I absolutely agree not an easy thing to do but then again what is in this business.  Its a HUGE challenge and and with the kelly will have a lot of ups and downs.  The hardest part is going to be the mental part.  Hopefully this under comes through good luck gentlemen!!!

Quote Originally Posted by butta01:

easier said than done...will check back though.

 
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Posted: #6

1-0

Bankroll 2176.36

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by mtp104:

Ok I'm going to use the kelly criterion for at least a year using 57% winners and see where it takes me.  For people who don't understand kelly Criterion this will roughly be 10% of my bankroll and one bet at a time.

Rule #1: Thread Moderator should understand his own rules..

Rule #2: Thread Moderator should understand his own rules..


Kelly Criterion is not for the average amateur.. You might want to look up exactly how to set up the Kelly before attempting such an effort..

How do you know you will hit 57% winners?

You are going to run this thread for 1 year..?? Well, all the power to you, would love to see it.. but you need to understand what exactly you're betting first..

Over/Under -- 3 weeks  +144/-156

Cheers..

 
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Posted: #8
Please do better than your current Covers Survivor Picks..

Nice win tonight after an 0-7 start..   
 
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Posted: #9
run with the money you won lastnite...lol...or you can fade your picks i find that very profitable for me....i can pick winners but the loosers always come back to haunt me so im working with a couple systems that i fade...especially in college hoops..so far so good....not a crime to fade your self,its the money that matters goodluck...
 
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Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

Please do better than your current Covers Survivor Picks..

Nice win tonight after an 0-7 start..   

Survivor pick lol.  Are you serious. thanks Kreatture.  Good Luck and like I said I know that if I dont hit  57% my bankroll will be depleted.  I do know what the kelly is and want to thank you for your support.  GO BLUE!!!

 
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Posted: #11

[Quote: Originally Posted by 

Kreatture 1-7 survivor lol now it would be 2-7 haha 

Rule #1: Thread Moderator should understand his own rules..

Rule #2: Thread Moderator should understand his own rules..


Kelly Criterion is not for the average amateur.. You might want to look up exactly how to set up the Kelly before attempting such an effort..

How do you know you will hit 57% winners?

You are going to run this thread for 1 year..?? Well, all the power to you, would love to see it.. but you need to understand what exactly you're betting first..

Over/Under -- 3 weeks  +144/-156

Cheers..

[/Quote]
 
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Posted: #12

Miami +1.5

211.11 to win 192.19

 
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Posted: #13

1-1 current bankroll

1964.89

Arkansas -3.5

Risking 190.59

 
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Posted: #14

2-1

Bankroll $2,130.62

 
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Posted: #15

Risking $206.67 On ?  waiting till morning

 
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Posted: #16

Two team teaser

Pitt -1.5 and New England +2