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Kelly Criterion put to the test.

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Posted: #51

Its simple follow or dont stop wasting your energy!

 
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Posted: #52
Bring on the haters!!!!!  kelly criterion Im over betting no shit really educate yourself  why would I start a boring thread!!!!!  Wow you two are the smartest men alive!!!!!  I will be 20 and 14 in know  time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Eat shti doubters
 
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Posted: #53

SMDIO no offense you are to conservative for this business!!!!

 
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Posted: #54
I wish no one any ill-will from trying this business.. it's one tough nut to crack.. and 99.5% of people will fail, which is quite fine by me. That enables the 0.5% who "get it" to be as successful as they are.

mtp, I commend you for at least stickin to your guns and defending yourself to the bitter end.. but can you answer just one question for me, please?

In your definition, what exactly is the Kelly Criterion, and how are you executing it here in this thread? (Please provide examples from previous wagers)

Thank You, and best of luck from this point on.

Cheers 
 
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Posted: #55
Try to post all your nonsense at once too... No need to post three times in a row. 
 
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Posted: #56

Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:


In your definition, what exactly is the Kelly Criterion, and how are you executing it here in this thread? (Please provide examples from previous wagers)
Cheers 

He can't and won't answer that question, because if he does, he'll then realize that what he's actually doing is NOT the Kelly

 
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Posted: #57

When one is presented with an opportunity to invest in a series of positive expectation wagers, whether they are my bets, a card counter's blackjack hands, a hustler's unfair coin flips or dice rolls, a guru's stock prices, or anything else, using the KC to determine the percentage of one's bankroll to invest in each wager will result in the greatest long term growth.  Over a timeframe I expect to hit 57% of my wagers because my spreadsheet shows that my big plays have hit a higher percentage than this along with a few touts  that I follow.  If you dont want to follow please guys dont.  Im not trying to sell anything teach anything.  Im simply posting my plays and kelly wagering to either show it can be done over a period of time roughly 1.5 years.  Its simple guys I have read tons of information on the KC and honestly you coming on here tellling me Im doing it wrong is ridiculous.  Just because I dont write out the fomula for you and havent explained evey little thing. 

If you know the KC method then you will know were my bet size comes from.  FULL KELLY>57% is my expected wager  I use the Kelly calculator to determine my bet.  Did you guys happen to read that I said I dont handicap all my own games.  I know some touts or as I call them investors that I trust.  I have been on covers for what 4 almost 5 years and never really posted a thing.   You  all think you know everything and you quiete frankly may know alot but the point is carry yourself with some class! Dont come on my thread and start hating on it.  GOOGLE KELLY CRITERION.  its  out their guys.  I would like to think in the past four  years Ive learned alot.  People like Vanczak, lippsman and few others are pioneers of this site and honestly if they told me I was doing somehting wrong I would respect it and hopefully get it corrected.  Im done good luck. 

NO PLAY TODAY>My Wolverines are going to make the biggest upset of the day. 

 
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Posted: #58
Bingo. You using 57% as your probability every time just because, historically you've hit at that clip, is wrong. Each game is a new matchup and your probability should be derived from your specific capping of that game, not anything you've done in the past.
 
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Posted: #59

Bingo.  DJ no offense bud but you honestly need to reevaluate your situation.  I am nicely asking you  to leave my thread unless you want me to start posting garbage on yours.  I have been kind and havent questioned your  methods.  Please let this thread blow up on its own and STOP being a KNOW IT ALL!!! 

GOOD LUCK KIDDO

 
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Posted: #60
In post #40 and #41, you state that you're done arguing with me and that I should stick to my business and you should stick to yours. At that point, I agreed and didn't post anymore in your thread. 

You then reference my name in post #46, #47, #49; counter some of my arguments in posts #45 and #52, and make a critical mistake applying Kelly. 

Drop it.
 
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Posted: #61

BANKROLL $2276

Record 4-2 WInning Percentage 66.67%

And by know means am I bragging its freaking 6 plays!!!

 
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Posted: #62
 
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Posted: #63

Patients!!

 
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Posted: #64
Given up already?
 
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Posted: #65

lol Sorry no plays!!!!  Im for sure going to have one this weekend!!

 
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Posted: #66
Selectivity is most often a good thing. 
 
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Posted: #67
There isn't always a strong enough edge every day of the week.. degenerates have plays every single night cuz they need the action. If you're betting big bucks and playing for keeps, you should only have a few plays a week which you really ante up for.

It's ok playing for smaller dollars on a few plays every night, but take DJ's thread for example (the one where he invests $1000/play).. He only posts a strong play every so often. That's where the real plays are.. his daily thread plays are pretty small compared to that.

I'm guilty of it myself.. I see small edges in some games every night, but there's a select few games a week where I really pound the hell outta them. Last night was one with the LA Kings.. tonight was one with the LA Lakers. those are the only two big plays I've had all week. I have one more big NHL play tomorrow night, and that's it for this week. Winning 3 or 4 games BIG over the course of a week is way better for my life than winning small fries every night.

Then again, as many of you know, as I've preached before, you have to be a Sports Investor, not a Gambler. This isn't just a "hobby" for me.. I don't crave the daily action anymore.. I crave winning. Anything less is purely unacceptable.

Best of Luck MTP, take what the board gives, nothing more.

Cheers 
 
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Posted: #68

risking 221 to win 200.91

CORNELL +16.5

 
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Posted: #69
I'm going to tail for $100 -- 
 
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Posted: #70
Dropped down to $50...  I looked at the game and hated it (but then again, I suck at spread sports so maybe I should have doubled down instead!)
 
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Posted: #71

BANKROLL  2476.11

RECORD 5-2

 

 
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Posted: #72
I really like Titans but wont be a play unless its back to -110 odds.  The moment those odds change from -110 to anything higher my wager drops and so does the value!!!  Im going to keep an eye. 
 
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Posted: #73

 TITANS -3 -125

RISKING 80.47 TO WIN 64.38

 
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Posted: #74
Already on the Titans in some situations... GL and thanks for the Cornell pick -- it was never in doubt.
 
 
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Posted: #75
Titans sucking it up big time..  

I was on them before even reading this.  But then again I suck so.
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