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Kelly Criterion put to the test.

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Posted: #426

Bankroll 3082

Record 44-33-1

 
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Posted: #427
(Response from a comment in my thread)

haha you're a person. I made the comment when they were up 20... I couldn't believe they came back. Check the timestamp bro! You're a S&S guy and we stick together, I wouldn't chirp you. I even tail you sometimes and I would have tailed you today but when I came to the thread, it was halfway through the game (when the comment was left).
 
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Posted: #428
DJ -- How the fuck are you not goin to point out the fact that this bet was for over $600 ???? How large was the biggest bet he's ever made to this point???

50% Kelly??

How does that translate to $617 ?????????

Please explain..

 
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Posted: #429
BTW.. there's no such thing as jinxing a bet.. if you believe that then you truly are Gambling.. You do the work.. an the work plays out. Either you're right, or you're wrong. Sitting on your couch with your legs crossed and one hand on the remote while the other is on the spoon eating your ice cream when your team took the lead for the first time, doesn't translate into $$$$$

Neither does ANY comment you may make at any point of the game you're winning, or losing....
 
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Posted: #430
It's because he thought I made that comment after the fact... which would have been pretty lame. Then I told him (and he realized) that the comment was made mid-game when Dallas was up huge.

As for the wager, he capped this game at a coin toss (50/50) corresponding to straight odds (-105/-105) so the fact that he was getting +155 made his edge really big (too lazy to do the exact math) and thus Kelly told him to bet big.
 
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Posted: #431
I'd like to know how he capped this game.. cuz when I broke down this game I had Dallas covering +3.5, but Portland winning. Referee assignments are such a huge part of my capping for these Playoffs and they supported the same..

Bein that I saw Portland winning this game by 1, 2, or 3 points, obviously wasn't enough edge to warrant a play. I actually laid off betting Dallas +3.5 BECAUSE of this LARGE wager.. it wasn't warranted by my means and I just thought it was a bad play.

I made a bad play on Orlando last night, so I know what it's like. No disrespect.. just surprised by such an out of norm wager.. I'm sure his (projected) edge has been as big before and did not result in such a large wager??

 
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Posted: #432

Kreatture,

jinxing a bet?  what are you talking about?  I thought he made a smart comment after the game.  You think I believe in jinxing.  Secondly, Dallas was the right side clearly.  I lost plain an simple.  Im not crying about that.  I don't care.  If you ask me the game was capped accordingly.  What if I won what had you of said then.  Dallas up 23 points in the playoffs?  I was getting great value and I took a shot.  That is what your call investing.  I was pretty darn close by the way.  I don't need you telling me it wasnt warranted?  Especially when it was right until the final seconds.  THAT WAS ALL ABOUT VALUE!  If you can't see that then I dont know what to say.  Yes I should have taking the points but obviosly I felt the moneyline was better value.  Man 50/50 with +155 and I'm up 23 points if you ask me that PRETTY DAM GOOD HANDICAPPING!!!  Kreatture what do you not see! 

MTP104

 

 
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Posted: #433
First, you don't question someone loss after they are clearly on the right side!!!!!  If I had lost by 20 then I would have said damn Im an idiot!  Kreatture,  I'll be honest I'm a little peturbed at your comments!  I don't care if you capped it at Dallas +3.5.  I took a pretty good shot and missed!  Enough Said. 
 
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Posted: #434

NBA

Sixers +6

risking 105 to win 94

54% kelly wager

 
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Posted: #435
It was just the size of the wager mtp.. you've never come close to that size of a bet before and I'm sure you must have had a similar edge before? That was the only thing I was really asking..

It was a good shot on Dallas, nice try.

Nice bounce back with today's winner 
 
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Posted: #436

Record: 45-33-1

bankroll 3172

 
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Posted: #437
Kreature GTFO
 
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Posted: #438

NBA

Dallas Mavericks +4

54% kelly wager

Risking 108 to win 97

Good Luck!

 

 
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Posted: #439

Bankroll 3269

Record 46-33-1

MLB tonight

St Louis Cardinals listed pitchers only!  Carpenter versus Hudson 

PICK Cardinals -110

Kelly wager 54%

Risking 111 to win 99 

 

 
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Posted: #440

NBA

Memphis Grizzlies -3 -110

54% kelly wager

Risking 107 to win 96

Good Luck!

 
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Posted: #441

Bankroll 3464

Record 48-33-1

59% winners 

 
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Posted: #442

If you guys are wondering why I adjusted the bet on the second game?  I simply subracted the amount placed on my cardinals wager and then used that bankroll to determine the size of the Memphis Grizzlies game. 

 Starting bankroll for day 3,269

Cards game 54% kelly wager which I had in before Memphis game! Risking 111 on cards game then I had a new bankroll before Memphis game of 3269-111=3158

3158 (adjusted bankroll before determining Memphis play)  Memphis capped at 54% odds to win which equated to 107 dollar wager on my end!

Hope that make some sense on why game two had different amount!  Simply put I didn't lock both bets in at same time and adjusted my second wager on my new bankroll! 

mtp104

 
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Posted: #443
Makes perfect sense, nice night last night! Keep it going.
 
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Posted: #444

MLB

Cardinals -101 listed pitchers Garcia versus Lowe

This gets tricky because I got Cards at SBG global for -101 odds.  Bookmaker is currently -114 and beted is -110.  I would not take the bet at anything over -110.  I advise everyone to shop around as they should do for baseball.

-110 im risking 118 to win 106

54% kelly wager. 

I only advise risking at most 3.5% of your bankroll if you are following my kelly method!

Otherwise play at your own risk as usual!

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #445

Bankroll 3346

Record 48-34-1

NBA

Chicago Bulls -9

55% Kelly wager

Risking 184 to win 165

 
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Posted: #446
good pick mtp 104 i get money also mtp 104 let get some real money in the next couple of weeks ..cool..your pick my strategy
 
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Posted: #447

Bankroll 3162

Record 48-35-1

 
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Posted: #448

NBA

Dallas -2

55% kelly wager

Risking 174 to win 156

 
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Posted: #449

Bankroll 3318

Record 49-35-1

 
 
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Posted: #450
No play as of yet!  I'm looking into the Mavs Lakers game.  I really like the Mavs to close this series out at home tonite.  They have been playing great and I dont see lakers getting this one tonght.  Line is back at mavs -2 and hopefully lakers money will come in and I can jump on -1.5.  Either way I will be back wilth a play by 2 p.m eastern time!!!  Good Luck Go Bulls! 
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