Kelly Criterion put to the test.

That's BS man.. you posted it 6 minutes before the game started. Count it as a win if it does!

Good Luck 

I stated 30 minutes from day 1 and will stick to it.  Only will count if it loses either way hopefully it makes us some money! 

mtp104,

I have just started following the different strategies on this board, and will have to admit yours is one of the top sights I follow.  I understand the Kelly Criterion, but was wondering how you come up with your picks.  I am not wanting a detailed account, but just the idea in a nutshell.

Several years ago, I did a correlation study on what statistics helps NFL teams cover the spread.  This was done in the days before EXCEL was available, so it took me awhile.  I found some very interesting things about the numbers.  It concluded that "Yards Per Pass Attempt Allowed" was the most key number for teams to cover.  I never really followed up with it, but your sight has kind of lit a fire under me again.

Are you using any previous statistics to predict outcomes?  If so, what?  Just curious.  Thanks, Tim

Timc Ill get back to tomorrow going out for night! 

On the parlay hopefully someone besides myself made some money on it. 

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner!!

Way to go MTP, you should most definitely count this in your record, but of course it's your thread and you should do whatever you want to do. I didn't see this until way late, but I got on the Wisc-mil game at least. Thanks for the win!!!

How do you like bookmaker? Can you sell any points? Do you ever do any bets from your cell?

$4,756.86

Record 28-12-1

Timc,

I'm not a professional to start as thats obvious.  I do not use a number generator.  I follow line movements on plays much of the time that I like.  I also follow other handicappers.  I use many tools and resources all of which are available to everyone.  I really think the internet allows us all the information to handicap games in many different ways.  Its easy to pick winners its hard to beat the mental side of this businnes along with money management.  I would advise people before they ever bet a game to understand that the mental edge and money  management edge is the most important tool.  When you combine strong plays, moneymanagement, and having a mental edge you can beat the books and be in the small % of people who win.  That is what makes me successful along with the fact that I have been humbled my the busiiness many times before!  Hopefully I didn't dissapoint you into thinking I'm some statistical guru.  Anyone can handicap a game until their brain explodes but that will burn u out.  Everyone needs to fnd a way to stay motivated and do what works for them. 

Cardsfan,

Bookmaker has always been good to me.  I do not place bets over the phone unless I absolutely have to which is rarely the case.  As far as selling points I have no idea.  If you are someone that plays everyday then you may not like Bookmaker because the lines aren't always good .  That is why finding the correct line is so important as we all know. 

My goal is the have this thread up for as long as possible and keep winning at a realistic%. 

NBA

Indiana Pacers -1.5

55% kelly wager

Risking $261 to win 238

 Bankroll 4,495.86

Record 28-13-1

NCAAB

Two team parlay  Furman and Long Beach State

Odds -117

Kelly wager 55%

Risking $111.79 to win $95.20

Bankroll: 4,591.06

Record: 29-13-1

Nice come from behind winner on Furman yesterday.  Long Beach was winning that game from start to finish.