Kreatture's 2010 MLB Playbook

MINNY Gets it done!

Finally!

After spending all night reading about the Grand Martingale, Capped Martingale, and Dynamic Martingale.. the Labourchere, the Reverse Labourchere, "Blowing Up the Numbers", "Splitting the Labourchere Line".. as well as the Avant Dernier and D'Alembert System.. I feel like I am a freakin' expert on everything..   LoL

..

I have changed the spreadsheets to look the way I want them. I will follow a Labourchere and Martingale System.. both of which I have set up the way I, MYSELF, would play them.

The lines are designed for a $10,000 bankroll with $100 Unit sizes. If you want to follow along with the same style as I have set up, just do the math. IE. If you have a $2000 bankroll divide 10,000 / 2000 = 5 .. $100 / 5 = $20Units. So your lines would start 10 10 10 10.

I will be adding a number onto the end of the line after a loss, rather than just adding the loss onto the last number all ready on the line. This is the way PSIC did his NHL Lines and I believe it to be the most effective method to use over a long MLB Season. A shorter time-frame, like a playoff run, could be used with a different style.


I am happy with this now..


Oh, btw.. thanks to Scott Baker & Co. for a brilliant performance in the nightcap. Those are Fantasy numbers I really enjoy seeing  

Happy Mother's Day! Make sure ya'll at least call your Mother today and tell her how great she is! JUST DO IT




KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 9TH, 2010


RUNLINE BLITZ

St. Louis Cardinals  -115          GAME 4


TOP 7 HOME TEAM

No Plays



Give me my new Avatar Covers! That little creature I changed it to was bad luck I think.. good riddence to it!



Continued Success 

I like the martingale b/c it is easier to calculate and track, and it builds your roll faster, BUT, the game 3 and higher bets get scary as hell. The Lab takes that game 3/4/5/6 fear away.

We need to create the 'Labingale'. Somehow combine both.

I mean, look at your wager difference today on the RL Blitz. You are wagering 1197 vs. 120!!!

That takes some bankroll and balls! If you get to a game 5 or 6 and lose, your bankroll is gone, no? Whereas, with the Lab, you'd probably still have more than 1/2-3/4 of it preserved?

My book has Philly -190, and Stl at -200.

So that breaks that tie for me...but...they have San Fran at  -200 also. Lincecum at the Mets. Or Wainwright at the Burgh.

STL is now -185

SF is -190

PHI is -210

What is everyone else seeing, and which game are you taking?

I can tell you the weather here on the east coast is WINDY. Like 20-25 mph with 30-40 mph gusts.

Definitely applies the Philly area and game. Unsure what it is like at the METS against SF, or the Pirates game in Pittsburgh against the Cards.

Well, I am going with the game with the least wind: Stl. vs. Pirates.

I am also gonna put a tad bit on Phi, b/c they are the clear top favorite of the day at my book.

Gl everyone.

Sorry Nole, I was unable to get online today, until now.

Some interesting line moves on these games, I am surprised St. Louis' odds went down and Philadelphia soared.

If I had been online before the games started the play would have been switched to Philly, since they are by far the clear cut favorite now. St. Louis would still have to be the 2nd biggest favorite.

However, since the call was made last night on the odds at the time, and the games have all ready started.. St. Louis remains the play, with Philly being used to track for the 2nd favorite.

We'll see how it all works out today..


Cheers 

can be 2 plays a day in the runline blitz?

for example you lose and you have to chase

Game 2 of the chase and the big favorite too?

Sorry Just a little confused

and the chase is always runline? what happens if is a dog in the next series?

 

Kreat,

I believe the original RL blitz goes with opening numbers. Monitoring and going with "current" odds is mostly likely impossible. The same backtesting had to be done with opening odds.

The reason is simple, what if at 1pm a team is biggest fav of day but a 4pm line moves after the start of the 1pm game and becomes the biggest fav.

GMSI

Yes, I don't know what happened to my last message I tried to post.. I had wrote basically the exact same thing a couple hours ago.

There are 2 ways you could go about determining the biggest favorite.. 1) Opening Odds  2) The Current Odds as of when the 1st Game of the Day Begins

However you do it, it's just important to keep doing it the same way, for the integrity of the System.

Personally, I try my best to go by the Opening Odds, before the public can get their grubby little hands on things and start moving lines.

Generally, if the odds are within 5 cents (like last night when I checked on 3 different books), I will make a call on which game to play based on my handicapping. Even tho Philadelphia also won, my choice of St. Louis was much better as they steamrolled over Maholm and the Pirates.

It's always nice to have a cakewalk on a Game 4 

!!!!!!!!!!! Fred Lewis just hit a 3-run HR in the top of the 9th to give the Jays an 8-7 lead!! SWEET!!!!!!   


So even tho we went to a Game 3 on the Top 7 Home Team and a Game 4 on the RunLine Blitz.. both games then won easily. It's gonna happen, we can't expect to win every Game 1 & 2 all season long. Stick with the System and have faith in it.

Cheers to a successful 1st week 

Nice all the way around today. Even Cleveland won in an abbreviated sweep chase.

See you tomorrow...

There is only 1 play a day, unless there are 2 teams tied for the biggest favorite and they start at different times (ie. one afternoon game, one evening game). Then I might play 2.

Typically, if you lose a game, the Chase continues the next day.

Yes, the Chase on the RunLine Blitz is ALWAYS played on the -1.5 RL.

The play would never be a dog in the next game. You play the biggest favorite each day, it does not matter if it is a different team. Most of the time it will be a different team each day.


I hope that answers your questions..

Cheers 

Last week produced +6Units on the Martingale. The Labourchere was down, but the starting wagers will be larger this week, so it will bounce back after a few wins.




KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 10TH, 2010


RUNLINE BLITZ

Boston Red Sox  +120          GAME 1


TOP 7 HOME TEAM

New York Mets  -149          GAME 1 of 3    





Continued Success 

nole,

You hit the nail right on the head. We need to focus on creating a long term MM strategy that is a combination of both.

The LAB is good, safe but produce very slow returns.

Martingale, creates faster returns but comes with much higher risks.

A hybrid version of the 2 would be ideal.

GMSI

 

LIke I said in post #36

The problem with the lab lines is if your lines are like this

5-5

5-5

5-5

And you lose say the first 2 games and win the 3rd, well you still lost money.  Now what if we martingaled our lines like this

5-5

10-10

20-20

This way depending on line you should likely be making money each series.

If you win B or C game you still have a profit and can start over on line 1 again next series.  If you lose C then carry forward the lines to the next series.

 

Best of luck this week  K

Great 1st week.  And, your updated avatar is much appreciated!!!

Continued success.

If you check the thread on my system, you'll see that I'm doing exactly this.  Basically I play every system play on Labby lines but on higher confidence plays I play on Martingale in parallel for varying unit amounts.  If the losses get big, I move some of those units to the Labourchere lines.  It's a good mix of the two money management systems, but surely not the best or only way to do it. 

For the RL blitz, I'm doing the exact same thing...putting one unit on labby lines and putting 1 or 2 units on Martingale in parallel (depending on how much I like the game).  The beauty of tracking it this way is that you can enter a Martingale chase whenever you want, for as long as you feel comfortable, for however many units you want, as long as you keep track of what units are where.  You can be aggressive and keep pushing for more units, but you have the labby lines to fall back on if your chase goes deep.

One last thought...the labourchere method only gives slow returns at the very start of the season if you play it right.  If you increase the amounts on your lines as your bankroll grows, you'll be playing for such big amounts by season's end that you'll EASILY eclipse doing a straight Martingale all year for the same units.

Leprechaun

Hectar, I'm a lot tired right now, but it seems like your example is the martingale, but with losses carrying over after a C loss.

This could be the elusive "labingale"... In theory with labby if you are bringing more into the lines you would get more back as long as you are hitting a good percentage at every level of the games. I think this would actually take more stones than straight martingale.  You would need to have a hefty bankroll relative to your units but I think it would work.  Although, this seems higher risk and reward which is not what I think was your intention when originally trying to find a mix of the two systems

The charts are apparantely hot right now, my last 5 plays have produced wins of +125,+210,+190,+245, and +200 straight, hope somebody caught that with me.