Kreatture's 2010 MLB Playbook

I like the martingale b/c it is easier to calculate and track, and it builds your roll faster, BUT, the game 3 and higher bets get scary as hell. The Lab takes that game 3/4/5/6 fear away.

We need to create the 'Labingale'. Somehow combine both.

I mean, look at your wager difference today on the RL Blitz. You are wagering 1197 vs. 120!!!

That takes some bankroll and balls! If you get to a game 5 or 6 and lose, your bankroll is gone, no? Whereas, with the Lab, you'd probably still have more than 1/2-3/4 of it preserved?

My book has Philly -190, and Stl at -200.

So that breaks that tie for me...but...they have San Fran at  -200 also. Lincecum at the Mets. Or Wainwright at the Burgh.

STL is now -185

SF is -190

PHI is -210

What is everyone else seeing, and which game are you taking?

I can tell you the weather here on the east coast is WINDY. Like 20-25 mph with 30-40 mph gusts.

Definitely applies the Philly area and game. Unsure what it is like at the METS against SF, or the Pirates game in Pittsburgh against the Cards.

Well, I am going with the game with the least wind: Stl. vs. Pirates.

I am also gonna put a tad bit on Phi, b/c they are the clear top favorite of the day at my book.

Gl everyone.

can be 2 plays a day in the runline blitz?

for example you lose and you have to chase

Game 2 of the chase and the big favorite too?

Sorry Just a little confused

and the chase is always runline? what happens if is a dog in the next series?

Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

Sorry Nole, I was unable to get online today, until now.

Some interesting line moves on these games, I am surprised St. Louis' odds went down and Philadelphia soared.

If I had been online before the games started the play would have been switched to Philly, since they are by far the clear cut favorite now. St. Louis would still have to be the 2nd biggest favorite.

However, since the call was made last night on the odds at the time, and the games have all ready started.. St. Louis remains the play, with Philly being used to track for the 2nd favorite.

We'll see how it all works out today..


Cheers 

Kreat,

I believe the original RL blitz goes with opening numbers. Monitoring and going with "current" odds is mostly likely impossible. The same backtesting had to be done with opening odds.

The reason is simple, what if at 1pm a team is biggest fav of day but a 4pm line moves after the start of the 1pm game and becomes the biggest fav.

GMSI

Nice all the way around today. Even Cleveland won in an abbreviated sweep chase.

See you tomorrow...

nole,

You hit the nail right on the head. We need to focus on creating a long term MM strategy that is a combination of both.

The LAB is good, safe but produce very slow returns.

Martingale, creates faster returns but comes with much higher risks.

A hybrid version of the 2 would be ideal.

GMSI

LIke I said in post #36

The problem with the lab lines is if your lines are like this

5-5

5-5

5-5

And you lose say the first 2 games and win the 3rd, well you still lost money.  Now what if we martingaled our lines like this

5-5

10-10

20-20

This way depending on line you should likely be making money each series.

If you win B or C game you still have a profit and can start over on line 1 again next series.  If you lose C then carry forward the lines to the next series.

Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

Last week produced +6Units on the Martingale. The Labourchere was down, but the starting wagers will be larger this week, so it will bounce back after a few wins.




KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - MAY 10TH, 2010


RUNLINE BLITZ

Boston Red Sox  +120          GAME 1


TOP 7 HOME TEAM

New York Mets  -149          GAME 1 of 3    





Continued Success 

Best of luck this week  K

Great 1st week.  And, your updated avatar is much appreciated!!!

Continued success.

Hectar, I'm a lot tired right now, but it seems like your example is the martingale, but with losses carrying over after a C loss.

This could be the elusive "labingale"... In theory with labby if you are bringing more into the lines you would get more back as long as you are hitting a good percentage at every level of the games. I think this would actually take more stones than straight martingale.  You would need to have a hefty bankroll relative to your units but I think it would work.  Although, this seems higher risk and reward which is not what I think was your intention when originally trying to find a mix of the two systems

The charts are apparantely hot right now, my last 5 plays have produced wins of +125,+210,+190,+245, and +200 straight, hope somebody caught that with me.