Another win on the Blitz last night, quite a run of games going now thanks to the New York Yankees. Tonight is a little bit different for myself, as the White Sox were the clear-cut Opening Line favorite. People apparently do not know how to read OPENING Lines as I am seeing some wide variance on plays for the Top Favorite of the Day, each and every day.
The best way to find the Opening Line is to go to the top of any Covers page you are on and find ODDS in the menu across the top, then choose MLB. From there you get a complete list of the day's games and you find the ones which are the highest. Some days there is 1 favorite which is so much higher you don't need to check the others. But, on days like this, you find the 3 or 4 which are all fairly high and click on LINE HISTORY.
This lists the odds for most major sportsbooks and casinos across the land, from the time they opened the line to it's current value. Since this list shows the time of day everyone opened their odds, it should be very easy. You find the earliest time of day any of these books opened a line. Some books opened a line at 3pm yesterday, while others didn't open one until 11pm last night. You go by the 3pm line, since it was clearly set by the oddsmakers. The 11pm book has watched how much the public is moving things by then and then opens a much different line 8 hours later..
The White Sox opened yesterday afternoon -245 at Bookmaker and Diamond, around 2:35pm. The Public immediately bet this down and most books then opened between 4-5pm at -220. By today, Joe Public is clearly smart enough to know this is a stupid crazy line and are jumping on Cleveland for insane value. So we've seen Chicago drop below -180 now.
St. Louis opened around 2:45pm yesterday -200 across 6 or 7 different Books. By today, Joe Public sees Wainwright is pitching and jumps on board, driving the line up to -220, -230, thus becoming the
Current Line Top Favorite. This does not mean they are the play for the day.. I don't know why that is so hard to see..
That being said.. I am personally playing things different today, which I rarely do. PLEASE read the spreadsheet carefully as to the explanation. For System integrity we have to list Chicago as the play, but I am not personally playing them. I personally hate all the RunLine top lines today, but I have wagered on St. Louis.
On some rare days, I will also be posting my Side Plays since they have been going really well. For the record, we get a lot of leans on games throughout the day, but we don't end up playing them all. The plays I post here will all be plays I am actually wagering on. It wouldn't be right to post a play I wasn't actually invested on myself.
Cheers
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - JUNE 4TH, 2010
Click on the Red System Title to get to the spreadsheet.
Navigate among the tabs at the top of the page to get to the
desired page.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX +111 GAME 1
TOP 7 HOME TEAM
LOS ANGELES DODGERS -150 GAME 2 of 4
-- Dog Alert, Play +1.5 RL
WEST COAST UNDEROAKLAND A'S U7.5 -115
GAME 1ON THE SIDEKANSAS CITY ROYALS +120
Top PlaySAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -130
MINNESOTA TWINS -105
These plays all represent good value as far as Situational & Statistical Analysis. These come from not only my own analysis, but also of a group involvement, not on Covers. They are not Chase plays.Continued Success
Hot Forum Topics
