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Kreatture's Playbook

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Posted: #426
Wow.........
Detailed for sure........
I'm so mad I missed out on today's plays which personally I was feeling too based off my gut well some of them. Based off my limited availability I just couldn't decide how to go about some of these but Phi and Nyy for juvenile reasons were my lock
But that doesn't cut it alone to make a wager
Not that we plan to fail but fail to plan and I just didn't have time because of work and stuff so I laied off
Hey....... Any day we're not losing money is a good day
Great stuff as always Kreature........
I was thinking too if still to chase these plays is a good idea or jut forcing
What do you think?
Thanks man.........
 
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Posted: #427
Quote Originally Posted by MontanaMax:

Wow.........
Detailed for sure........
I'm so mad I missed out on today's plays which personally I was feeling too based off my gut well some of them. Based off my limited availability I just couldn't decide how to go about some of these but Phi and Nyy for juvenile reasons were my lock
But that doesn't cut it alone to make a wager
Not that we plan to fail but fail to plan and I just didn't have time because of work and stuff so I laied off
Hey....... Any day we're not losing money is a good day
Great stuff as always Kreature........
I was thinking too if still to chase these plays is a good idea or jut forcing
What do you think?
Thanks man.........


3-0 on Sides, 0-2 on Totals yesterday. I expect all the teams who won yesterday, to win their respective series. Therefore, you could probably take those Sides once again. I have not decided 100% if I will do this, as this was not the original goal. I may just take the Yankees Side again tomorrow. Today, just Totals on the 2 early games.
There is a lot of NHL I am playing tonight as well, so would be nice to hit these 2 Totals early.

Cheers 
 
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Posted: #428
MLB '09 PLAYOFF GAME PLAN


KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - OCTOBER 8TH, 2009


COLORADO ROCKIES @ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Over 9  -105     Game2 of possible 5


MINNESOTA TWINS @ NEW YORK YANKEES

OFF DAY


ST. LOUIS CARDINALS @ LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Under 7  +100     Game2 of possible 5


BOSTON RED SOX @ LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM         

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim  RL  -175     Game1 of possible 3
Under 8.5  -105     Game1 of possible 5


_______________________________________________________


The following percentages are also noted for each individual series prediction. These numbers are based on the Bill James Playoff Predictor, which is well known throughout the baseball handicapping universe. It involves a simple mathematical formula based on 13 criteria points. My personal handicapping of each individual series also generally matches up with the below numbers. However, anything can happen in a short series, and these numbers should be referred to as a 'guideline' only. Actual series results may differ 


PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES     57.36%     3 games to 2  (personal pick 3-1)

LOS ANGELES DODGERS     58.52%     3 games to 2

NEW YORK YANKEES     68.94%     3 games to 1  (personal pick 3-0)
 
LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM     54.20%     3 games to 2






Cheers 




Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

 
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Posted: #429
I know it's early, but are you going to apply your top 5 home team system to the NHL and NBA?  As always, good luck and I will be following you.
 
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Posted: #430
Quote Originally Posted by yankees247:

I know it's early, but are you going to apply your top 5 home team system to the NHL and NBA?  As always, good luck and I will be following you.


As MLB, I am currently monitoring and tracking the Top 5 Home Team System for NHL. The MLB System did not start until about a month into the season. If I decide NHL looks solid, it will also begin sometime in November or December. Due to there being fewer games in NHL, it will take longer to get a good starting sample of percentages.
I don't think a System like this will work in NBA for straight up ML wagers, due to the extremely high juice on Top Home Teams. I will be working on something tho, and hopefully find something I like.

_____________________________

Big Home Run by Jayson Werth there in the 8th, guarantees the Push at least, for today's Colorado/Philadelphia game.. would be sweet if someone can push across 1 more here in the 9th.



Cheers 


 
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Posted: #431
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:



As MLB, I am currently monitoring and tracking the Top 5 Home Team System for NHL. The MLB System did not start until about a month into the season. If I decide NHL looks solid, it will also begin sometime in November or December. Due to there being fewer games in NHL, it will take longer to get a good starting sample of percentages.
I don't think a System like this will work in NBA for straight up ML wagers, due to the extremely high juice on Top Home Teams. I will be working on something tho, and hopefully find something I like.

_____________________________

Big Home Run by Jayson Werth there in the 8th, guarantees the Push at least, for today's Colorado/Philadelphia game.. would be sweet if someone can push across 1 more here in the 9th.



Cheers 




word of warning of kreature.......
similar but less effective system evened out after many many wins last year
Only filter was not playing bottom 8 home teams
something else too maybefilter wise
went 4 games deep per chase all on the ml using martingale
ouch..........
you know what your doing........
you'll find something that works
I got something too up my sleave but need more games for it to work
always looking for other anlges
if only there was a way to apply SN's sabremetric approach to hockey I would be all about putting the work in like his MLB thread

 
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Posted: #432
Tonight, was one of those great nights, where everything (almost) went perfect.

3-0 on MLB with 1 Push on the Colorado/Philadelphia Total

5-1 on my NHL selections as well tonight including a Parley of Buffalo/Nashville.  NHL has gone great so far, but I am a little wary about things. Taking Road Dogs on the +1.5, who you think have a good shot at winning outright, has been very successful so far, but the juice is always -200 or higher. Any kind of System playing these lines consistently looks like bad news. I will continue to monitor things throughout October and see what I can decide on. For now tho, 'B' game wagers will continue to be conservative if 'A' games do not hit.

Taking some down time seems to have refueled my juices, as I am having a nice winning week so far, good for about +16 Units. Of course, MLB Playoffs have contributed nicely to this, which I knew all along it would. I wish I had managed my money better throughout September so I could be playing for larger Unit $$ now, but I will make do with what I have and build it back up again. The lesson learned from September will prove to be an invaluable asset to future success.

Ugh.. I'm tired.. one more post then off to sleep.
 
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Posted: #433
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

MLB '09 PLAYOFF GAME PLAN


KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK


COLORADO ROCKIES @ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Philadelphia Phillies  ML         
Over      Game2 of possible 4


MINNESOTA TWINS @ NEW YORK YANKEES 

New York Yankees  RL         


ST. LOUIS CARDINALS @ LOS ANGELES DODGERS 

Los Angeles Dodgers  RL         
Under         


BOSTON RED SOX @ LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM 

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim  RL         
Under         

_______________________________________________________

All picks above will begin a possible Chase on the team which will win each individual series. The maximum Chase for each series is 3 games, since if the pick does not win in the first 3 games, the series is over due to a sweep by the other team. The only exception to this is the New York Yankees series, which will be played on the RunLine -1.5, due to the extreme nature of the juice in Games 1 & 2. Game 3 may be only a MoneyLine pick, depending on Line Value at the time. RunLine games for Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are +1.5 for Game1, due to line opening as 'Dogs'.
All Totals will begin a possible Chase up to 5 games, since this is the maximum number of games each series can play. The pick of 'Over' or 'Under' is based on Sabermetric "leans", and are strongly favored to hit at the very minimum, 1 game in each series. There will be no Total play for the Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees series.
The Overall Goal for Round 1 is to win 7 Units. Each Unit will represent 2.5% of my current bankroll.

Cheers 

Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 




The completion of DAY2 in the MLB '09 PLAYOFF GAME PLAN leaves me with just 1 Unit still to acquire. So far, 6 of the 7 +Unit Goal has been achieved. 5 of the 6 wins so far came on the 'A' wager.
Game plan will continue for the one remaining series as the teams travel back to Colorado for games 3 & 4.
There will be no play on Friday, October 9th's games.

My favorite local club is having a Grand Re-Opening Party Friday night, introducing the new management and kicking off their new schedule of Live bands and opening up a brand new dance floor.
It should be one helluva night, I'm really looking forward to it!

I'll be back on Saturday and will post any additions to the MLB card as well as NFL Week5 plays.


Cheers 
 
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Posted: #434
MLB '09 PLAYOFF GAME PLAN


KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - OCTOBER 11TH, 2009


BOSTON RED SOX @ LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM         

Over 9  -110     Play to win Half of Col/Phi Game1 Totals Loss


MINNESOTA TWINS @ NEW YORK YANKEES

NY YANKEES  ML  -175     Play to win Half of Col/Phi Game1 Totals Loss


COLORADO ROCKIES @ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Over 9  -110     Game2 of possible 4     If both early games win, play to win 1 Unit






Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

 
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Posted: #435
KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - OCTOBER 11TH, 2009


NFL BLITZ PACKAGE

GOLD        Pittsburgh Steelers  -10.5
SILVER      Carolina Panthers    -3.5
BRONZE     New England Patriots  -2.5



NFL 2009 TOTALS

46-16  ML    74%
37-25  ATS  60%

4-0  GOLD     (4-0 ats)
3-1  SILVER     (2-2 ats)
3-1  BRONZE     (2-2 ats)


All Selections for Week 5

Cleveland @ Buffalo  ML / ATS
Dallas  ML @ Kansas City  ATS
Minnesota  ML @ St. Louis  ATS
Oakland @ NY Giants  ML / ATS
Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia  ML / ATS
Cincinnati  ATS @ Baltimore  ML
Atlanta  ML / ATS @ San Francisco
Jacksonville @ Seattle  ML / ATS
Houston @ Arizona  ML / ATS
Indianapolis  ML / ATS @ Tennessee
NY Jets  ML / ATS @ Miami



13 POINT TEASER SELECTION

Pittsburgh  +2.5
Cincinnati  +22
Carolina  +9.5
Atlanta  +15.5


Happy Thanksgiving to all my fellow Canadian members!! 

Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 
 
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Posted: #436
It figures the 1st time I post my NFL plays, I have easily my worst week of the goddamn season. I should have known..

At least baseball started good today.
 
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Posted: #437
isn't NYY @ MIN and PHI @ COL? will this change your plays/
 
 
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Posted: #438
Quote Originally Posted by mistercash:

isn't NYY @ MIN and PHI @ COL? will this change your plays/
 


Yes, sorry. I forgot to change the Home Teams around.

No, this does not change the plays.
 
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Posted: #439
thx and GL
 
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Posted: #440
MLB '09 PLAYOFF GAME PLAN


KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - OCTOBER 11TH, 2009




NEW YORK YANKEES @ MINNESOTA TWINS

NY YANKEES  ML  -168     Increased wager on NY to win an additional 1 full Unit          Game1 of possible 3




MLB '09 Playoff Game Plan has added one play in an attempt to gain 1 additional Unit for the 1st Round. A possible 3 game chase will begin on NYY tonight.



Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

 
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Posted: #441
Good work on the baseball.
I've been cleening up on the Phils.
If they close the series tonight, I'll be set up nice for the next round.
Got them on the ML -101 (price was too nice to pass on for Lee) and to win the series -165.
Although, the books probably think people will count on Cliff Lee duplicating his last outing and set the line low to pull in philly money. Has me a little concerned, but I rolling with momentum for the Phils here.
Talk to you soon...
 
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Posted: #442
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

MLB '09 PLAYOFF GAME PLAN


KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - OCTOBER 11TH, 2009


LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM @ BOSTON RED SOX    

Over 9  -110     Play to win Half of Col/Phi Game1 Totals Loss


NEW YORK YANKEES @ MINNESOTA TWINS    

NY YANKEES  ML  -175     Play to win Half of Col/Phi Game1 Totals Loss


PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES @ COLORADO ROCKIES    

Over 9  -110     Game2 of possible 4     If both early games win, play to win 1 Unit




NEW YORK YANKEES @ MINNESOTA TWINS    

NY YANKEES  ML  -168     Increased wager on NY to win an additional 1 full Unit          Game1 of possible 3


MLB '09 Playoff Game Plan has added one play in an attempt to gain 1 additional Unit for the 1st Round. A possible 3 game chase will begin on NYY tonight.


Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 




A perfect 3-0 Sunday to conclude the MLB '09 PLAYOFF STRATEGY 1ST ROUND. Original goal of achieving +7 Units has been obtained, plus a bonus of +1 Unit with the extra play of the Yankees last night.

I knew the Playoffs would be a great opportunity to add additional Units, with minimal risk. Looking forward to Round 2 which begins on Thursday.


MLB '09 PLAYOFF STRATEGY

1st Round

9-2
+8 Units

 
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Posted: #443
Just throwin out a few NHL plays for tonight.. not officially in the Playbook.

Nashville ML
Florida +1.5
Washington ML

Also playing the Phillies this evening on the +1.5

And the MNF play is on the NY Jets ML. Something like 13-10, 17-13 .. so yeah the Under 36 as well.


Cheers 
 
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Posted: #444
Wow, what a crazy 4th quarter last night eh?? Was lookin good at 13-10 in the 4th, then WHAM!   5 TD's just like that.. very odd.


Only play tonight is on the Toronto Maple Leafs to get their 1st win vs. Colorado. The Avs are in a tough part of their road trip, where tonight is their 3rd game in 4 nights. Their next game on Thursday is in Montreal where it will once again be their 3rd game in 4 nights. Then they travel to Detroit on Saturday when it will be their 4th game in 6 nights. Not a kind early season road trip for Colorado.

Fade the Avs the next 3 games

Tuesday, October 13th
Colorado Avalanche @ Toronto Maple Leafs

Thursday, October 15th
Colorado Avalanche @ Montreal Canadians

Saturday, October 17th
Colorado Avalanche @ Detroit Red Wings



Cheers 
 
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Posted: #445


I was thinking of the +1.5 / PL myself on the side for kixx too
Hmmm......... Good stuff

Hey Kreature I got some systems in my closet that I took out during some fall cleaning. I found them elsewhere and had difficulty tracking to play last year cause of limited time. Maybe if I throw them to you  (through a PM or if anyone else wants to look at them) would you be able to look at them and maybe back test to see if there is any teeth here? Gotta friend you up for that pm
 
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Posted: #446
Quote Originally Posted by MontanaMax:



I was thinking of the +1.5 / PL myself on the side for kixx too
Hmmm......... Good stuff

Hey Kreature I got some systems in my closet that I took out during some fall cleaning. I found them elsewhere and had difficulty tracking to play last year cause of limited time. Maybe if I throw them to you  (through a PM or if anyone else wants to look at them) would you be able to look at them and maybe back test to see if there is any teeth here? Gotta friend you up for that pm


I'd definitely take a look and see what I can do. I'm tracking a couple of things myself this month. I think you definitely have to let the teams get their legs going for a few weeks before you can really start pounding these games. By Mid-November NHL should be ready to hack out some big time winners.

I'm tryin not to let myself "give in" to the playin somethin for kicks anymore .. but I do have a PL Parley tonight.. Detroit +1.5 / Toronto -1.5..  I see Buffalo is up early 1-0


Cheers 
 
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Posted: #447
Well.. looks like maybe the Leafs really are that bad?? And the Colorado Avalanche look like the Denver Broncos of the NHL so far.. It really is still too early to put any stock into the efforts of both these teams so far, but I have to give the Avs some credit for playing with much intensity and the Leafs lack thereof..

I'll still be unofficially playing against Colorado the next 2 games.


Leafs 
 
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Posted: #448
MLB '09 PLAYOFF GAME PLAN
ROUND 2


KREATTURE'S PLAYBOOK - OCTOBER 15TH, 2009


PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES @ LOS ANGELES DODGERS         

Philadelphia Phillies  RL  -175  


LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM @ NEW YORK YANKEES     (Friday, October 16th)

LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM  RL  -140



PARLEY - to win 1 Unit (risk 0.59)

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES  RL
LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM  RL


The strategy for Round 2 will not be just picking one side and playing the ML throughout. I expect these games to be tight, and the road teams to want to make a statement early. Games should be close. By taking the +1.5 RL on both dogs, I not only have a good chance of an outright upset in either game, but also have some insurance if they fall in the end.
There will be no set goal for Units this Round. RL Dogs will be the starting point, with reassessment done after each game. For now, there will be no Totals play.




Best Of Luck 2 Everyone, and Continued Success 

 
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Posted: #449
I am so embarrassed to be a fan of the NHL right now, after watching the most convulsive display of officiating I have EVER seen in my life.
Three blatant non-calls in the 3rd period, one of which created the winning goal.
I couldn't have played on the ice that game without my stick running through someone's helmet.. it was that bothersome.
The tape for this game should easily be sent to the head office for review. Officiating crews like this have no business on the ice.

Referees Dave Jackson   and Marc Joannette , and linesmen Pierre Campoux   and Brad Kovachik   - you have done an injustice to your position tonight.



 
 
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Posted: #450
Quote Originally Posted by kreatture:

I am so embarrassed to be a fan of the NHL right now, after watching the most convulsive display of officiating I have EVER seen in my life.
Three blatant non-calls in the 3rd period, one of which created the winning goal.
I couldn't have played on the ice that game without my stick running through someone's helmet.. it was that bothersome.
The tape for this game should easily be sent to the head office for review. Officiating crews like this have no business on the ice.




Referees Dave Jackson   and Marc Joannette , and linesmen Pierre Campoux   and Brad Kovachik   - you have done an injustice to your position tonight.







Damn........ Well now you know what's its like being a Flyers fan with them not only playing their opponents but playing against the reffs too. They still hate our guts from the Broad St. Bully days. Shitty calls and non calls on us at least since I got into the pucks back into the 90's. Welcome to the party....... haha...........

Good analysis with those picks
Chased with Phi ML and now may look to flip to Lad ML chase
Looking to do the same in the AL too

On the side played the lottery with a parlay on Phi ML and followed the public on Chi and Ott both -1.5 PL paying out big time but only risked like an 8th of a unit. Still big payout though. 15-1

  thanks man.........
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