This system is based on how teams perform in a 3 game series at home or on the road (henceforth referred to as game A, game B, and game C). Based on a formula I created, we chose a team to win 1, 2, or 3 games in a given series. If the team we play on gets swept, that counts as a loss. This differs from most chase systems out there for two reasons. First, if our team wins game A, we sometimes go for a second or even a third win in that same series. Secondly, this system does not chase to win just one unit per series. We use stats to predict our probability and unit size for each series. We can increase profit per series significantly if we let the numbers work for us, giving us a bigger bankroll, and thus allowing us to increase unit size. More importantly, we can avoid dropping big units on series losses if we keep a close eye on the numbers. Much like poker...if you know stats, you can bet big when you have a good hand, and bet small when you don't. In this game, there is no bluffing...if the numbers are against us, we fold. I'll repeat this over and over as the season progresses...
NOTHING IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN UNIT MANAGEMENT. There are hundreds of MLB systems out there, and the truth is that many of them work great...they usually fail because the user fails to manage their units correctly. The plays are decided based on the matchups. This system is dynamic so there are no set teams to play on. As the season progresses, we collect team data that will put matchups in or out of the system. As each series is completed and the results are processed, the factors that decide the plays for each team changes. I think this is the most important part of the system and one of the major reasons it works so well. You are relying on up to the minute data. The team to play on and if you play the road or home team, is completely dependent on the numbers. That means teams will move in and out of the system depending on 1)how good or bad they do, 2) how good or bad their opponent does, and 3) how good or bad the league does AS THE SEASON PROGRESSES.
There are two things we have to figure out in order to "profit" from a given system. One thing is to identify a set of plays that hit at a high percentage, which I think we've managed to do, but the second part is betting those plays correctly. People often underestimate the importance of finding a way to bet any given system. Unit management is more important than the system itself. With a sport like baseball, there are hundreds of different angles and chase systems out there that have a proven track record. As I said before, the reason most of these fail is bad unit management. When you see a system that chases 4, 5, or 6 games they look enticing. However, when you get down to the actual units involved, in order to keep risk low, you have to bet such a small unit amount that the amount of work and stress involved is hardly worth the tiny profit. Either that, or the units get so out of hand that no one has the balls to play the system out (this can even happen in a 3 game chase).
When developing this system, I tried to keep all these things in mind. Last year, I took a modified Martingale approach, pushing hard on A games and backing off on B and C games and recouping lost units later. This strategy worked pretty well for the most part, but in August I learned the system clearly lacked a disciplined approach to unit management. There was too much "gut" feeling involved instead of betting based on the numbers. Fluctuation was too high...that’s why the system profited only 120 units last year when it should have been 3 or 4 times that amount.
This year, we’ll use a modified Labourchere method (similar to PSIC's) combined with a Martingale approach. If you aren’t familiar with either of these methods...use google, it is your friend. The idea is explained and explored in depth with examples on my blog (link above, or check my covers space)...just click on General info but the bottom line is that this system gains strength as the season goes on and we collect more data. I expect a minimum of 50 units/month and I hope that June and July will produce twice that. No guarantees of course, but expectations are pretty high after how well 2009 went and how well our trial period went for April. Admittedly, I’m still learning and tinkering with how to bet this system, so certainly there will be some stumbling along the way...but if we follow the system, it will be very unlikely that we lose money.
The system will officially start next Monday, May 3. I look forward to posting the plays and results here daily or as often as I can (I have a real job and this is a lot of work!) I also look forward to being a more regular contributor in the forum...in this thread and in others. In the meantime, the trial period picks will continue to be posted on the website for tracking. Good luck to all, and lets CRUSH the books!!
-Leprechaun