Wednesday, July 7 MLB Series System Picks
1a. Sea (-145) to win 3.5 units
1b. Sea RL (+150) risk 1.5
units
2. Angels (+115) risk 3.5 units
3. Boston RL (-130) to win 1
unit
4. Padres (-110) to win 3.1 units
5. Special parlay: Angels
(+115)/Sea RL (+150): 1 unit to win 4.3 units
***Results from July 6***
1. Tex RL (-115) to win 4 units-------------win
2. Angels
(-105) to win 3 units-----------lose 3.2 units
3. Sea (+125) risk 4
units-------------lose 4 units
4. Rockies (-135) to win 2
units----------win
Total for July 6: 2-2, -1.2 units
***Notes***
Rockies! That was my first happy gambling moment in a week. I'm surprised we weren't on the other side of that with the way things are going. That was the good news...the bad news is that we have been in the red 8 of the last 10 days (I think) AND we have TWO C games today. As the games have staggered starts, I may change the units on Seattle just before game time. If there is a change, I'll post it. Maybe that Rockies game is a sign that things are about to turn for us.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 116-92, -2.9 units
Overall SERIES record
(through July 4): 94-6
Good luck,
Leprechaun
Wednesday, July 7 MLB Series System Picks
3. Boston RL (-130) to win 1 unitLeprechaun
Thursday, July 8 MLB Series System Picks
1. Angels (+110): see note below
2. Padres (-145): see note
below
***Results from July 7***
1a. Sea (-145) to win 3.5 units------lose 5.1 units
1b. Sea RL
(+150) risk 1.5 units----------lose 1.5 units
2. Angels (+115) risk
3.5 units-------------lose 3.5 units
3. Boston RL (-130) to win 1
unit------------------lose 1.3 units
4. Padres (-110) to win 3.1
units--------------------lose 3.4 units
5. Special parlay: Angels
(+115)/Sea RL (+150): lose 1 unit
Total for July 7: 0-5, -15.8 units
***Notes***
Got paid back for the Rockies and then some. While we haven't gone bust...I'd say this system can officially be deemed ineffective. We have too many series losses and our A and B game percentages are too low for us to possibly profit using this money management strategy. I still believe in the idea and there is a lot to be learned from the experience...but I can't go on in good faith knowing people are following along. We'll stop here for now. I'll do some testing and number crunching and be back after the All Star break. I listed the Angels and SD as teams to play on today but I have not listed any units. I won't be playing those games but the outcomes will count for SU record (and Angels will count for series record). In a separate post, I'll list the teams to play for the series starting today and tomorrow...those will count towards our series record only but I won't be playing them.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 116-97, -18.7 units
Overall SERIES record
(through July 4): 94-6
back in a few days,
Leprechaun
Thursday/Friday July 8/9 MLB Series System Teams
I posted this yesterday on the site (added some teams today) but forgot to post it here. Here are the series plays for the weekend:
1. Texas (go for 2 wins)
2. TB (won on Thurs)
3. Yanks (won
on Thurs)
4. Florida
5. Detroit
6. Angels
7.
Milwaukee
These will count towards our series record. I've been looking hard at the numbers the last couple days and finding many interesting things. Will definitely be back after the All-Star break to continue this system.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 116-97, -18.7 units
Overall SERIES record
(through July 8): 97-8
Good luck if you're on these this weekend,
Leprechaun
Last Weekend Series Results:
1. Texas-----------loss
2. TB-----------win
3.
Yanks-------------win
4. Florida------------------win
5.
Detroit-----------------win
6. Angels----------------win
7.
Milwaukee---------------win
Notes: Wow...still can't believe Texas got swept by the
Orioles. Baltimore had won 9 road games all season and then they go and
sweep a division leader??? No gambler on the planet could have
predicted that. Those type of losses, while astounding, are much easier
to take. It's impossible to filter that out as a play. You know there
will be a series loss like that once every 2 or 3 years, you just hope
you don't get burned by it. We didn't post any official units for that
series but we still count the loss in our record, which has become
abysmal.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 118-100, -18.7 units (fixed an error in the SU
record)
Overall SERIES record (through July 11): 103-9
Leprechaun
Thursday, July 15 MLB Series System Picks
1. Angels (-150) to win 1 unit
2. Atlanta RL (-165) to win 1
unit
3. SF RL (+125) risk 1 unit
***Notes***
Good to be back at it. Definitely enjoyed the days off. I'm sure there are about 2 people following this now and that's it, but we keep going forward. This system is built on a very solid foundation, but as I said in a previous post, it's a work in progress. Please check the posts below this one for some stats and thoughts on the first half. We are easing back in today. This weekend everything will be played extremely light. Philly also fits in the system, but we are skipping road teams for the weekend. That series will still count in our series record but we risk no units on it. Starting on Monday, we'll get back into things with a modified money management strategy. I'll be posting more on that in the coming days. Let's make the second half a success.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 118-100, -18.7 units
Overall SERIES record
(through July 11): 103-9
Good luck,
Leprechaun
Friday, July 16 MLB Series System Picks
1. Yanks RL (+110) risk 1 unit
2. SD (-110) to win 1 unit
***Results from July 15***
1. Angels (-150) to win 1 unit-------------win
2. Atlanta (-165)
to win 1 unit--------------win
3. SF RL (+125) risk 1
unit----------------win
Total for July 15: 3-0, +3.3 units
***Notes***
That's how you get out the gate for the 2nd half! Nice sweep. There was a typo yesterday with Atl...I had thought about playing that on the RL and forgot to delete it from the post. It has been corrected. Clearly the line posted was the ML and that was a win. If ever there is doubt, the line will tell you what the play is for sure. We have just 2 more series to win and then we can relax for the weekend. Remember, we are going very easy this weekend so we will not go for 2 wins on any series and we will not play any series where we don't start on the A game. Let's pick up a couple more units and get ready for next week. If we play our cards right, we should be back in the black in the next 10 days.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 121-100, -15.4 units
Overall SERIES record
(through July 15): 106-9
Good luck,
Leprechaun
Saturday, July 17 MLB Series System Picks
There are no plays for Saturday or Sunday
***Results from July 16***
1. Yanks RL (+110) risk 1 unit-------------lose 1 unit
2. SD
(-110) to win 1 unit------------win
Total for July 16: 1-1, +0.0 units
***Notes***
Tough luck on the Yanks RL. We'll be playing a lot more RL's in the 2nd half so we'll live with it. We are done for the weekend. For you action junkies out there, the Phillies are a great play for Saturday. Personally, I'll be staying away from them and checking out a few totals. I'll also try a 2 game chase on Detroit in the double header today. Good luck, whatever you choose. Back on Monday.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 121-100, -15.4 units
Overall SERIES record
(through July 15): 106-9
Good luck,
Leprechaun
Monday, July 19 MLB Series System Picks
1. TB (-160) to win 2 units
2. Min RL (+100) risk 2 units
3.
Det (-115) to win 1 unit
4. Toronto (-135) to win 1 unit
5. Cinci
(-170) to win 1.5 units
***Notes***
Sorry for the late post. I've been trying to get the new MM strategy down on paper so I can post it on the site but I keep getting interrupted. Hopefully by the end of the night I'll have that up, but these are the plays for today either way.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 122-101, -15.4 units
Overall SERIES record
(through July 15): 106-9
Good luck,
Leprechaun
Tuesday, July 20 MLB Series System Picks
1a. Min (-170) to win 2 units
1b. Min RL (+120) risk 1 unit
2.
Det (+115) risk 1.2 units
3. Toronto (-115) to win 2 units
***Results from July 19***
1. TB (-160) to win 2 units--------------win
2. Min RL (+100) risk
2 units------------lose
3. Det (-115) to win 1
unit-------------lose 1.2 units
4. Toronto (-135) to win 1
unit----------lose 1.4 units
5. Cinci (-170) to win 1.5
units----------win
Total for July 19: 2-3, -1.1 units
***Notes***
Wow...lost 2 games in extras. I also had Colorado as a side play to
make things even more painful. Oh well, we just lost 1 unit on the day
so no real harm done. I've posted some of the basics of the new unit management strategy on my site...I'll post it here too after I polish it up tomorrow. Off to play some bar trivia!
****Record***
Overall SU record: 124-104, -16.3 units
Overall SERIES record
(through July 18): 109-9
Good luck,
Leprechaun
Wednesday, July 21 MLB Series System Picks
1a. Min (-200) to win 2.2 units (DAY GAME!!!)
1b. Min RL (-105)
to win 2.2 units
2. Det (-105) to win 1.8 units
3. TB RL (-130)
to win 1 unit (DAY GAME!!!!)
4. Dodgers (-130) to win 1 unit
***Results from July 120***
1a. Min (-170) to win 2 units-----lose 3.4 units
1b. Min RL (+120)
risk 1 unit---------lose 1 unit
2. Det (+115) risk 1.2
units-----------lose 1.2 units
3. Toronto (-115) to win 2
units-----------win
Total for July 20: 1-2, -3.6 units
***Notes***
Wow...new MM system being put to the test right off the bat. Two
home teams going to game C. Cleveland has killed us lately and Texas
absolutely hates this system. They get swept by Baltimore and then win 5
of 6???? I feel like they are personally taunting me
I'll be out all day today so I hope when I get back to a computer I see some wins for us. My hopes to get in the black by the end of this week are not looking good. A good day Wednesday and a decent weekend could make it possible, but we'll take what we can get right now.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 125-106, -19.9 units
Overall SERIES record
(through July 18): 109-9
Good luck,
Leprechaun
Thursday, July 22 MLB Series System Picks
1. Min (-170) to win 1.5 units
2. Det (-135) to win 2 units (DAY GAME!!)
3. Yanks RL (-145) to win 1 unit
4. SF (-125) to win 1 unit
5. LAD (-160) to win 1.5 units
***Results from July 21***
1a. Min (-200) to win 2.2 units-----------win
1b. Min RL (-105) to win 2.2 units-----------win
2. Det (-105) to win 1.8 units---------------win
3. TB RL (-130) to win 1 unit--------lose 1.3 units
4. Dodgers (-130) to win 1 unit----------win
Total for July 21: 3-1, +5.9 units
***Notes***
I had a crazy day yesterday and was pretty happy to get home and see
we came so close to sweeping the board. TB just couldn't keep the lead
for us. If today goes well, we'll be guaranteed to stay in the positive
for the week. I've been crunching a lot of numbers lately and I'm very
excited about our new strategy. I'll be posting much more on that
later today, still working on a few small details.
****Record***
Overall SU record: 128-107, -14 units
Overall SERIES record (through July 21): 114-9
Good luck,
Leprechaun
***New Unit Management System***
For the rest of the season, we are putting a new unit management
strategy in place. This strategy has been tailored specifically for
this system, though I think it might work well for any 3 game chase.
The biggest difference in this method from others I've seen is we will focus on per series profit rather than overall units won or lost on the system at any given time.
I think this is an important element to winning in a chase system that I
had not considered before and in this situation the numbers are very
heavy in favor of this system. This is a new strategy and it looks good
on paper, but putting it into practice will be the real test.
The
first half of this season taught me the problem with using the
labourchere method (at least with this system) is that it puts too much
emphasis on winning the A game in a series. If your A game win
percentage is low, you push so many units onto your lines that it takes
to long to recover and you're constantly waiting for the good run to
come (which usually does eventually happen but the amounts can still get
out of hand). I've tried to develop a strategy that spreads the
importance of profiting over the first two games of the chase. Using
this method, as long as we can win about 81% of our series in the first
two games, we should be able to profit no matter what happens. For
the record, we are winning A or B about 89% of the time for home teams
this year and about 77% of the time on road teams. Even with an average
line of -180, we would still profit with that win % if we chased to win
1 unit. Our average line for A games is closer to -130, so we have a
lot of room to play with on these series.This new strategy should tone
down the big swings and keep us profiting...the only real downfall would
be if we lose a lot of series, but that would be the system failing us,
and not our unit management.
Here are The Basics:
We'll play A games for 1-3 units
depending on the strength of the play and the line. B game plays will
be our A game losses plus 0.5-1 unit, depending on the line. This is
purely statistical. The line controls what percentage of 2 game sets we
must win to profit given a strategy of betting X units on game A and
X+Y units on game B. C games will generally be played to win back our B
game losses. Any units above and beyond that go into our recovery
bank. Our recovery bank units will be won back 3 ways:
1) By playing games where we go for the second or third win in a
series, 2) By adding units specifically for recovery to certain A game
or B game plays, or 3) By playing on series where we don't start the
chase on the A game. We have been doing these things all season, I just
never made a distinction before in my posts. That will change and from
now on all plays will be listed as Game A, B, C or recovery. We will
keep separate recovery banks for AL home, NL home and road, just as we
did with our lines before, although I'll post the recovery bank amounts each day. If any one recovery bank gets to big, we
will adjust and spread losses or wins evenly.
Those are the basics, here are some other rules (in no particular order):
1.
We only play A and B games for road teams from here on out (or atleast
until the home team sweep % gets closer to the mean). We are losing
units on road team C games.
2. Max risk on any road team series will be 10 units total for both games.
3.
For home teams only: Bet for A game will always be between 1 and 3
units, depending on the strength of the play and the line, and we'll
never risk more than 5 units.
4. For any game over -180, we'll
usually be playing the RL only, with the exception being if the play is
for 3 units or more. In that case, we may put atleast one unit on the
ML. When we get to mid August, there will be a lot of RL plays because
the juice will start to get out of control. I know we'll lose more
games but hopefully our MM strategy will get it back for us. Just to be
sure this idea is not costing us units, I'll keep a running total of
units saved/lost by playing the RL from now on. It will be posted along
with the record each day.
I made add to this short list later,
but this outlines everything pretty well. There is a real example
posted on my blog that follows several teams through this strategy...anyone who is reading this should no where to find that by now. We will do our best to keep our per series profit around 1 unit by the
end of the season. In the beginning, it will fluctuate a lot, but this
is about the long term goal. As I was posting this, we just completed a sweep for the day
. That's getting things going in the right direction!
Leprechaun
Established in 1995,
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