Astros @Tigers: Peacock - Boyd: 1.57 to win 1.00
Brewers @Phillies: Peralta - Nola: 0.72 to win 1.00
Diamondbacks v Pirates: Ray - Kingham: 1.68 to win 1.00
Twins v Angels: Berrios - Skaggs: 1.45 to win 1.00
Yankees v Orioles: Cessa - Hess: 2.31 to win 1.00
A: 36
B: 18 (2 running)
C: 9
D: 0
Lost: 5+1
+34.99
Athletics @Tigers: Bassitt - Turnbull: 1.34 to win 1.00
Indians v Orioles: Bauer - Straily: 2.96 to win 1.00
Padres v Pirates: Lauer - Williams: 1.16 to win 1.00
White Sox v Blue Jays: Covey - Stroman: 0.89 to win 1.00
By the way: I'm also backtesting this for soccer and NHL at the moment. Results are quite promising so far. Bruins would be a pick in the series against Carolina (no surprise I guess) and Los Angeles FC in the MLS vs Dallas would also be a bet. Just if you are looking for some action while having a beer with some friends and watching one of those :)
I did twins over... couldn't decide to go twins or mariners... have you heard of vegas dave? If you type that in ig.. a guy posts his chase plays on ig. He doing mariners +1.5 am tempted to go for mariners for one... its a 4 game series... they should get one... keep up the good work...
Athletics @Tigers: Bassitt - Turnbull: 1.34 to win 1.00
Indians v Orioles: Bauer - Straily: 2.96 to win 1.00
Padres v Pirates: Lauer - Williams: 1.16 to win 1.00
White Sox v Blue Jays: Covey - Stroman: 0.89 to win 1.00
A: 40
B: 20
C: 9
D: 0
Lost: 5+1
+45.16
Nice day. To be honest: I was too expected the Twins, out of my gut feeling.
But: I'm using several criteria to rate a team and only Play, if one should have a "significant" advantage out of this rating. Twins @Mariners was to close at this - small advantage for Minnesota, but not enough to bet them. That said: I'm not looking for tight series which should split, but for series where I expect one team to win. This Team should then win at least one single game.
The 5 losses show that Baseball can still be a bitch, but thats the game and I can't change it :)
Also: The longer the season runs, the better the results in the last years. A's vs Red Sox was a series, where Boston was in a early season slump and the A's where clearly better at the moment. Yet, momentum changed. Could have been one series later, but thats life ;)
Soccer is a bit tricky due to the draw. Yet, on the long run the higher odds help me out there. I have still to do some balancing to do in my Ratings, but expect to start a thread here when the next seasons in Europe's big leagues start. Giving me the summer break to look back some more seasons and look for problems.
Hockey is nice, since it is very similar to baseball in many aspects. Run this for two seasons now and are very happy. Will probably start posting in the next season. And post some final picks here, if I get one.
NBA and NCAAB are hard. For every ML sweep system I guess. A lot of very low lines at high Favs and a mid season slump of Duke or the Warriors can kill you very quickly. I know, probably quite a low chance that big favs lose three in a row against clearly weaker opponents but yet - no willing to bet 100 Units to win 3 ;)
I'm still looking into how I can adjust the ratings or how to avoid to low lines without loosing to much money. But yeah. Comes back to the ratings, I'm still working on.
Football is nice, but has a very low amount of games. I need some games to be played to get a reliable idea and then the season is nearly over. At least it feels like that.
In addition a few general thoughts:
I like to bet the better team against weaker opponents, to get some Honor-factor after a loss. I don't like bad teams against even worse teams, if there is not still a MAJOR advantage in my ratings. I like ratings I can influence actively much more than general numbers (Def.Rebound% instead of Def.Rebound Total).
While I love betting ATS for fun and to spice up a game, I believe Moneyline is the way to go. Not due to juice or something, but because of motivation. I might be the only one thinking so and teamsports might be different than single sports (I'm doing Judo as Coach as well as myself): Coaches and Players want to win. And if they got another game upcoming, they are Looking to win with as low effort as possible to win confidently. Nearly nobody will go full power in the NBA if they are leading with 13 points and 1:20 to go in Q4. No matter if the line is 14.5 or 11.5. On the other Hand: The Underdog in a 11.5 spread game will probably now that they won't win in this Situation and also reduce effort. So for me, it's a complete coin toss and Quality is a much minor factor than in "I want to win"-ML betting.
I'll look him up :)
4 game series are Always good for at least one win. But: Since 2015 Season 124 sweeps in 769 series. Yet, Mariners look solid.
Sounds good... thanks for responding by the way
Idk especially a gl4 game series, I kinda like the idea of going both sides sometimes... but I do really like your patience. Forgot if I asked if you ever looked into totals? Mariners over is still a ridiculous good record... I like taking over with 2 high scoring teams... but have not really tracked it. But I must say sweeps in baseball, even 4 games does happen, so you do really have to be picky... I learned road teams can be quite sketchy
Well, it's a forum, so communicating with each other is quite the nature of this, right? :)
I should probably say at this stage, that I like betting for fun as much as the next guy. So, when I just want to spice up a game a little bit, I sometimes bet the most ridiculous stuff, including props and so on. In that, I mainly follow gut feeling only. But that's "just for fun".
When I look into something to follow long-term and with the goal to make money (Messi first Goal and Barce wins 2+ probably doesn't - or it's simple luck) I learned in a hard way to strictly follow a defined approach. And I don't mess with that. If something does sideways, I look into the data, see if I made a mistake or something changes - and if it's more than bad luck, I adjust accordingly. Mixing gut feeling in here might push the Winnings from +45 now to +48 - but I might also get a bad run and get a huge loss, which I cannot handle very well emotionally. I hate it to lose money KNOWING that I did something stupid. Once again, that doesn't involve the fun-betting mentioned above.
Totals: Yeah, I looked into that but I could never make Money with it. Got some sweeping systems for this, but it's the same as ATS: Nobody played to get over 210.5 if they already lead 120-85 with 30 seconds to go.
If you like, my Approach weights defense and offense in particular, and if I see something I can give you a short notice. But I will keep my Hands off that. Lost Money, learned my lesson. :)
To put this in relation:
2 game series: 143 our of 275 series - 52%
3 game series: 613 sweeps out of 2262 series - 27%
4 game series: 123 out of 745 series (had postseason involved above) - 16.5%
Two game series surprised me to be honest. All from 2015 season on, all based on sportsdatabase.
thanks will have to look at this... very curious about over under... as the odds are much better than betting big favs, but if it wins then it is what it is...
any idea of the calculation bet thing to make a -1 run line? i can not find it...
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