MLB Run Line System

Quote Originally Posted by Scrivero:

Ok, I promised to find time to check whether April and May had some freak years in your system. Today I finally had loads of time so here we go.

April stats year by year:

Games     RL Record         RL Avg Line    $ RL On    Season
6              4-2 (66.7%)          -105.8           +$155       2007
12            6-6 (50.0%)           127.5           +$155       2008
5              3-2 (60.0%)           121.0           +$160        2009
8              3-5 (37.5%)           108.4            -$163        2010
7              4-3 (57.1%)           144.6           +$286        2011
2              0-2 (0.0%)            133.0             -$200        2012
2              1-1 (50.0%)           105.5                $0        2013
4              2-2 (50.0%)           131.5            +$51        2014
3              2-1 (66.7%)           139.3           +$189        2015
4              4-0 (100.0%)         119.8           +$479        2016

Very few games per season in April, as expected. One freak season compared to the other seasons and the total of all Aprils of all season +1112 for 10 seasons, and +479 of that came from last year.

May stats year by year:

Games     RL Record         RL Avg Line    $ RL On    Season
14            8-6 (57.1%)          -101.8           +$235       2007
16            5-11 (31.2%)          130.6           -$465       2008
12             5-7 (41.7%)           122.1           -$105       2009
8              4-4 (50.0%)           115.0            +$35        2010
9              3-6 (33.3%)           136.0           -$219        2011
4              2-2 (50.0%)           120.2            +$43        2012
1              1-0 (100.0%)          145.0          +$145        2013
8              2-6 (25.0%)           135.9            -$327       2014
9              4-5 (44.4%)           137.6           +$46         2015
9              7-2 (77.8%)           131.0           +$704       2016

Well, very much up and down. Last season again was a rather "freak" season. +704 when the 10 year total is +92.

Sounds like one could very well have a reason to skip April and May.

Lets check if there are freak months in other months, either very high minus or very high plus months:

June: One -300-year, one other -100 year, one +-0 year and others between +100 and +500. One freak yaer of +1194.
July: One -600-year, a couple +600-+800 years, a couple of -200 years, a couple of +-0 years, otherwise between +200 and +400.
August: One -1000 year and one +800 year. One year -200, one +-0 season, otherwise all years between +150 and +650.
September: One season -300, one +-0, otherwise all seasons between +150 and +700.
October: Very few games, only in 3 seasons, all between +150 and +250.

All months from June to October seem very playable no doubt. April and May seem to be more of a coin toss between profit or loss.

Quote Originally Posted by nfl_huskers:

Results for 4/16

Quote Originally Posted by Scrivero:


About the changes closer to game time (favs becoming dogs, line moving from >=8 to 7,5 etc):
- Are you still going to (in the end of the season) follow the results of the games that you played or just the games that fell under the system?

As from what I see from killersport, the only games so far falling to the system criteria have been:
1. 4/5 Giants Loss
2. 4/18 Mariners Win
- This game total by the way became 8 in the end, making it also a play in my tweaked version of playing just the games with the total 8. Just very difficult to get exactly right plays when I go to sleep hours before gametime.. I think I will give up that extra 10 % in ROI in exchange to be able to play 5 times the amount of games and to win double the money without changing my unit size or bet size. I will start playing the system in June, I hope its profitable for you before that too!

Today is most likely a play with Cleveland. They are a clear away fav and the line is at 8,5 (opened at 9).

Quote Originally Posted by Scrivero:

Sounds good with following the actual plays and the hypothetical real system bets. As the reality is that one wont be able to make the exact right bets at all times because of late line changes. Will be interesting to see how big of a difference there will be in units won/lost in the end.