Posted:
#76
Quote Originally Posted by gambool:
Hello, I'm new to this forum and hope I will learn a lot !
I have studied the Base Runs formula and if I understand correctly, you use batter vs pitcher stats, but I'd like you to explain how you process since we only know the starting pitcher, so how do we integrate changes of pitcher during a game ? As for hitters, do you use the last game lineup ? Maybe you could post an example of how you procede for a given game if that's not too much to ask, although I understand that it's not the definitive version of your system, that would still be interesting to study.
I have apply the Base Runs formula for some teams using the overall average stats per game, but the only thing that gives me is the runs expectation which is irrelevant for a special matchup.
Note that english is not my native language so I apologize for any mistakes.
Hello, I'm new to this forum and hope I will learn a lot !
I have studied the Base Runs formula and if I understand correctly, you use batter vs pitcher stats, but I'd like you to explain how you process since we only know the starting pitcher, so how do we integrate changes of pitcher during a game ? As for hitters, do you use the last game lineup ? Maybe you could post an example of how you procede for a given game if that's not too much to ask, although I understand that it's not the definitive version of your system, that would still be interesting to study.
I have apply the Base Runs formula for some teams using the overall average stats per game, but the only thing that gives me is the runs expectation which is irrelevant for a special matchup.
Note that english is not my native language so I apologize for any mistakes.
Your anglais is good
to answer your question regarding pitching, each team has a designated "middle relief" pitcher or pitchers, and one "closer" which must be studied in detail; their appearance is predictable, as is the starting line-up, that is intact with stationary variables..
The exact formula that I am initiating in this experiment can be found at the Wikipedia link on page 1 of this thread, or for more in-depth information, you can contact the innovator of Base_Runs formula, Tom Tango, at tangotiger.com .. or through the Seattle Mariners, where he's employed as a sabermetric, statitician/projectionist. For the record, he's not a gambler, which keeps his handicapping skills "pure".....best regards
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