Interesting I've wanted to mathematically figure out what each half a run is worth in MLB. Obviously with 7 and 9 being the key totals in MLB it would be worth much more going from 6.5 to 7 or 7 to 7.5 than 7.5 to 8, etc.
Yeah, it's tricky when playing a system like this that's based on closing odds. If the odds are showing an early 8.0U -110, it looks good on the ROI table, so I want to play it. Then, 15 minutes before game time, the odds go to 7.5U +105, and that shows negative ROI. Those ROI values are based on closing lines, and not the line you play before game time. So, I can get a better total than the close, but the closing play doesn't look as good based on historical stats.
Like always, handicapping can help to predict the direction of the line, so you can grab a better play early in the day, and still hopefully, get a closing line that shows good ROI statistically for the system.
0
Quote Originally Posted by RisingDough:
Interesting I've wanted to mathematically figure out what each half a run is worth in MLB. Obviously with 7 and 9 being the key totals in MLB it would be worth much more going from 6.5 to 7 or 7 to 7.5 than 7.5 to 8, etc.
Yeah, it's tricky when playing a system like this that's based on closing odds. If the odds are showing an early 8.0U -110, it looks good on the ROI table, so I want to play it. Then, 15 minutes before game time, the odds go to 7.5U +105, and that shows negative ROI. Those ROI values are based on closing lines, and not the line you play before game time. So, I can get a better total than the close, but the closing play doesn't look as good based on historical stats.
Like always, handicapping can help to predict the direction of the line, so you can grab a better play early in the day, and still hopefully, get a closing line that shows good ROI statistically for the system.
I'm still watching the odds to get the best entry point, but these games will be plays.
Unfiltered System
HOU/LAA currently 7.5U -120
NYY/CHC currently 7.5U -110
I'm considering two units on the NYY/CHC game. The unfiltered system generates an ROI around 5%, but if you filter on the home favorites (Cubs are -129), the ROI goes up to around 9%.
Reasoning: The favorite will most likely win, and in most of those games, they will not bat in the bottom of the ninth, so one less half inning of possible scoring helps the under.
0
Plays for 5/6
I'm still watching the odds to get the best entry point, but these games will be plays.
Unfiltered System
HOU/LAA currently 7.5U -120
NYY/CHC currently 7.5U -110
I'm considering two units on the NYY/CHC game. The unfiltered system generates an ROI around 5%, but if you filter on the home favorites (Cubs are -129), the ROI goes up to around 9%.
Reasoning: The favorite will most likely win, and in most of those games, they will not bat in the bottom of the ninth, so one less half inning of possible scoring helps the under.
Unfiltered System
HOU/LAA currently 7.5U -120
NYY/CHC currently 7.5U -110
Sticking with my standard flat bet 1
unit for the rest of May, but if the home favorites show higher ROI the
rest of this month, I'll switch to 2 units on those plays starting in
June.
0
Plays for 5/6
Unfiltered System
HOU/LAA currently 7.5U -120
NYY/CHC currently 7.5U -110
Sticking with my standard flat bet 1
unit for the rest of May, but if the home favorites show higher ROI the
rest of this month, I'll switch to 2 units on those plays starting in
June.
SF/CIN: Current total is 8.5 across all books. Needs to drop to 8.0 to be a play.
Unfiltered Only
HOU/LAA: Current total is 8.5 across all books. Needs to drop to 8.0 to be a play. MIL/PIT: Current total is 50/50 split between 8.0 and 8.5. Needs 8.0 to be a play.
Going
to be away from computer this morning, so won't be able to update
before game time. If someone sees these fall into place,feel free to
update here.
0
Possible UNDER Plays for 5/7/2017
Filtered and Unfiltered
SF/CIN: Current total is 8.5 across all books. Needs to drop to 8.0 to be a play.
Unfiltered Only
HOU/LAA: Current total is 8.5 across all books. Needs to drop to 8.0 to be a play. MIL/PIT: Current total is 50/50 split between 8.0 and 8.5. Needs 8.0 to be a play.
Going
to be away from computer this morning, so won't be able to update
before game time. If someone sees these fall into place,feel free to
update here.
Copyright � 1995 - 2024
CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
Hot Forum Topics
