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MLB UNDER System

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Prospect
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Posted: #101
Plays for 5/21

Unfiltered System Only
CLE/HOU: 8.0U +100


Close But Not Quite
PHI/PIT: Total holding 8.5. Needs 8.0 or less.
LAA/NYM: Total split between 8.0 and 8.5. Needs consensus 8.0 or less.
NYY/TB: Total holding 8.0. Needs 7.5 or less based on Archer ERA of 3.70.
 
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Posted: #102
Results from 5/21/2017

Unfiltered System Only
CLE/HOU: 8.0U +100 LOSS (-1.0u)


Year-To-Date

Unfiltered System (5% ROI)
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 13-11-6 (+1.21u)

Filtered System (13% ROI)
May Actual Plays: 4-3-1 (+0.78u)
 
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Posted: #103
Possible Play for 5/22

Only one potential play today ...

Unfiltered System Only
PHI/COL: 8.0U
     ERA's and WHIP's are very close to the higher ROI Filtered System values, but total is trending 8.5. Needs 8.0 or less.

As I've mentioned before, 8.5U has historically been profitable for home favorites using these systems, and PHI is the home favorite. I'm sticking with the 6.5 to 8.0 totals originally defined for the systems in this thread, but this is shaping up to be a good UNDER side bet if the total stays at 8.5.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #104
No Plays for 5/22

PHI/COL total stayed at 8.5.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #105
Plays for 5/23

Filtered and Unfiltered System
SF@CHC: 7.0U +103
     Lester's ERA of 3.57 requires total of 7.0 or less. Grabbing positive odds here and hoping 7.0 holds.

Unfiltered System
SD@NYM: 8.0U +100
     All totals 6.5 to 8.0 are good here. Not worried about total moving to 8.5 with Mets as home favorite.
     This is very close to a filtered play. Harvey's 5.56 ERA is just a bit too high for the 5.25 filter.
 
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Posted: #106
In the results the ROI for Filtered and Unfiltered are always the same at 13% and 5%. Is there a reason they are not changing? They also do not seem to be correct. I'm assuming I'm missing something here
 
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Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by smurph_daddy:

In the results the ROI for Filtered and Unfiltered are always the same at 13% and 5%. Is there a reason they are not changing? They also do not seem to be correct. I'm assuming I'm missing something here


Sorry for the confusion. The unfiltered system has a historical ROI of 5% and the filtered system has a historical ROI of 13%. Those numbers were originally used in the results to more easily identify the systems.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #108
Gotcha. Thanks for the clarification. BOL 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by smurph_daddy:

Gotcha. Thanks for the clarification. BOL 


No problem at all. Speaking of ROI, that 16.91% you've got going on your chase system is nice. Your records on games 1-3 are tracking to your average odds. You're doing something right to get that 5-0 record on those game 4's.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_huskers:



No problem at all. Speaking of ROI, that 16.91% you've got going on your chase system is nice. Your records on games 1-3 are tracking to your average odds. You're doing something right to get that 5-0 record on those game 4's.

cheers indeed brotha
 
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Posted: #111
Results from 5/23/2017

Filtered and Unfiltered System
SF@CHC: 7.0U +103     WIN (+1.03u)

Unfiltered System Only
SD@NYM: 8.0U +100     LOSS (-1.0u)


Year-To-Date
Unfiltered System
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 14-12-6 (+1.24u)

Filtered System
May Actual Plays: 5-3-1 (+1.81u)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #112
5/24 - nothing close to meeting parameters at this point. SF/CHC is a play if total drops from 7.0 to 6.5 due to Hendricks' 3.35 ERA.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #113
Play for 5/26

Unfiltered and Filtered Systems

ATL/SF: 8.0U -115
     Any total 6.5 to 8.0 is valid.
 
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Posted: #114
       

 
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Posted: #115
Good luck huskers.
 
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Posted: #116
Hey Huskers... thanks for your work.

I'm trying to understand why the play doesn't show up when I do the query.. I am putting the following in, do I have the right one ? 

REG and H and 6.5 <= total <= 8 and total / 2 <= STDSERA <= 5.25 and total / 2 <= o:STDSERA <= 5.25 and 1.25 <= STDSWHIP <= 1.55 and 1.25 <= o:STDSWHIP <= 1.55 and season = 2017
 
Prospect
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Posted: #117
Quote Originally Posted by Goodsy:

Hey Huskers... thanks for your work.

I'm trying to understand why the play doesn't show up when I do the query.. I am putting the following in, do I have the right one ? 

REG and H and 6.5 <= total <= 8 and total / 2 <= STDSERA <= 5.25 and total / 2 <= o:STDSERA <= 5.25 and 1.25 <= STDSWHIP <= 1.55 and 1.25 <= o:STDSWHIP <= 1.55 and season = 2017


Yep, that's it. Looks like the SDQL database has Cain's WHIP as 1.55244755245, which technically is greater than 1.55. You can use the round() function to eliminate some of that, so replace o:STDSWHIP with round(o:STDSWHIP,2).

I usually just start with this query to see if anything is close to the parameters:
H and REG and total / 2 <= STDSERA and total / 2 <= o:STDSERA and season=2017

Then, I go check the ERA, WHIP, and Total stats for each game for final verification.


 
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Posted: #118
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_huskers:



Yep, that's it. Looks like the SDQL database has Cain's WHIP as 1.55244755245, which technically is greater than 1.55. You can use the round() function to eliminate some of that, so replace o:STDSWHIP with round(o:STDSWHIP,2).

I usually just start with this query to see if anything is close to the parameters:
H and REG and total / 2 <= STDSERA and total / 2 <= o:STDSERA and season=2017

Then, I go check the ERA, WHIP, and Total stats for each game for final verification.



Perfect, I changed them both and now it comes up.

Thanks for your help.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #119
Results from 5/26/2017

Filtered and Unfiltered System
ATL/SF: 8.0U -115     WIN (+1.0u)



Year-To-Date
Unfiltered System
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 15-12-6 (+2.24u)

Filtered System
May Actual Plays: 6-3-1 (+2.81u)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #120
Plays for 5/27

Unfiltered System Only

CHC @ LAD: 7.5U -105
     Total 7.5 or lower is valid due to McCarthy's 3.76 ERA.

ATL @ SF:  7.5U -110
     Total 7.5 or lower is valid due to Foltynewicz's 3.86 ERA.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #121
Play for 5/29

Filtered and Unfiltered System

ATL@LAA:  8.0U -115

     ATL: Teheran has 4.88 ERA and 1.46 WHIP
     LAA: Nolasco has 4.37 ERA and 1.30 WHIP


Getting caught up after Memorial Day holiday weekend activities. Missed out on some better lines earlier in the day.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #122
Getting caught up on my results. Busy weekend.

Results from 5/27/2017

Unfiltered System Only
CHC @ LAD: 7.5U -105     WIN (+1.0u)
ATL @ SF: 7.5U -110     LOSS (-1.10u)


Year-To-Date

Unfiltered System
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 16-13-6 (+2.14u)

Filtered System
May Actual Plays: 6-3-1 (+2.81u)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #123
I was away from my computer most of the weekend. Just went back to check yesterday's games to see if I missed any plays. Looks like SF/ATL and WAS/SD would have been 8.0U plays on the unfiltered system. That SF/ATL game just missed being a filtered play.

Both plays would have been a PUSH, so no real impact to the YTD record.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #124
Results from 5/29/2017

Filtered and Unfiltered System
 ATL@LAA: 8.0U -115     LOSS (-1.15u)


Year-To-Date

Unfiltered System
April SDQL Record: 22-8-0 (SDQL Profit = +13.05 units)
May Actual Plays: 16-14-6 (+0.99u)

Filtered System
May Actual Plays: 6-4-1 (+1.66u)
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #125
Not seeing anything close to a play for 5/30. Very low ERA's or high totals today.
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