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MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?

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Prospect
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Posted: #851
Degen, any timetable on the spreadsheet update? Thanks.
 
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Posted: #852
Although i don't play this system, if you like Stoffo's you can try this one. Sagarin's are sometimes not 100% so I would check and if you see a wonky one it may have not imported properly from usatoday's site.
Hope it helps a few play and track this system.  If you do let me know if you profit!
GL

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9UBaNk9s7UjS2FlNUczN3pNNTA/view?usp=sharing

 
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Posted: #853
I'm trying a system in which I'm going with the Dog, but one of my parameters involves a pitcher whose ERA is regressing to the mean.

It centers around some of the parameters mention previously, but in addition, I look at the pitching match up.  The idea is that if a pitcher's ERA over the last few games is significantly higher or lower than his season ERA, he'll work his way back to it.

However, I don't know how to enter this into the killersports SDQL parameters to test my theory.

I've also been filtering pitchers to find out who matches up better with whip, k/9 and GO/FO ratio.  When I throw these together way to many of my dogs get eliminated from play.  Any thoughts on how to keep the theory but offset it?  Like with last 10 games trends as a counter?

Thoughts?
 
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Posted: #854

DG & Dan

been using the spreadsheet for the entire 2015 season with satisfactory results, btw it didn't hit the wall before the All-Star break as in previous years....later

 
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Posted: #855
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

DG & Dan

been using the spreadsheet for the entire 2015 season with satisfactory results, btw it didn't hit the wall before the All-Star break as in previous years....later


Where is the updated sheet for 2015?
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
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Posted: #856
I duplicated the 2013 original version (updated) to use for the 2014 season, and again,updated it to use this year 2015 (personalized)
 
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Posted: #857
Quote Originally Posted by pairadux:

I'm trying a system in which I'm going with the Dog, but one of my parameters involves a pitcher whose ERA is regressing to the mean.It centers around some of the parameters mention previously, but in addition, I look at the pitching match up.  The idea is that if a pitcher's ERA over the last few games is significantly higher or lower than his season ERA, he'll work his way back to it.However, I don't know how to enter this into the killersports SDQL parameters to test my theory.I've also been filtering pitchers to find out who matches up better with whip, k/9 and GO/FO ratio.  When I throw these together way to many of my dogs get eliminated from play.  Any thoughts on how to keep the theory but offset it?  Like with last 10 games trends as a counter?Thoughts?


The problem I see here is you are using too many of the stats that make a team a favourite in the first place.

The point of this system is to find value dogs. a team playing a great pitcher that is on a good run etc etc is most likely going to be a favourite.

By filtering too heavily on underdog strategy like this eliminates too many plays and creates no value.

 
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Posted: #858
MLB undedogs best time is now, in September.
 
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Posted: #859
MLB dogs bark the loudest in autumn...that's a fact, not an opinion, check Septembers boxscores for enlightment
 
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Posted: #860

 jenjay23...give it a review

many perimeters added on the way to conclusion...what's your assessment? the system has been consistent with getting out of the gate strong, picking up the RL on the way, and gaining momentum until approx 2 weeks before the All Star game break, then it regresses, and eventually hits the wall (for reasons unknown) however, I have found that the system resurfaces with vg results in September (#858/#859) also for reasons that at this time are 'unknown'

Danrules24, do you see reconstructed value? do you see re enforcement of the system for 2016? twin play? what's your feel? take care.....

 
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Posted: #861

 jenjay23...give it a review

many perimeters added on the way to conclusion...what's your assessment? the system has been consistent with getting out of the gate strong, picking up the RL on the way, and gaining momentum until approx 2 weeks before the All Star game break, then it regresses, and eventually hits the wall (for reasons unknown) however, I have found that the system resurfaces with vg results in September (#858/#859) also for reasons that at this time are 'unknown'

Danrules24, do you see reconstructed value? do you see re enforcement of the system for 2016? twin play? what's your feel? take care.....

 
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Posted: #862
Anyone use this last season?  How were the results? 
 
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Posted: #863
bump
 
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Posted: #864
this system is doing well this season  (2018)

Just took a look ...get on it now before it fizzels (if past trends hold true)
 
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Posted: #865
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

this system is doing well this season  (2018)
Just took a look ...get on it now before it fizzels (if past trends hold true)

It has been pretty good.  I don't follow to a tee but use Degen's old sheet to help my decisions in daily capping.
Although I cant guarantee this is 100% accurate as I just use it as a tool, here is a link to Degen's/my modified updated sheet for 2018 if you want to use as well.  It does take a good 10-15min to update and sometimes gets hung up when updating so could frustrate a few.  I usually close and try again if you get the debug error or if you know a bit of vba i run modules separately and seems to work ok.  If any manually cap these systems and see glaring issues let me know and I can try to fix if its in my excel knowledge realm 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ALeX6he0ZtHPxUsQiZmJLKAfynOzyWoX/view?usp=sharing

 
 
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Posted: #866
Quote Originally Posted by jenjay23:


It has been pretty good.  I don't follow to a tee but use Degen's old sheet to help my decisions in daily capping.
Although I cant guarantee this is 100% accurate as I just use it as a tool, here is a link to Degen's/my modified updated sheet for 2018 if you want to use as well.  It does take a good 10-15min to update and sometimes gets hung up when updating so could frustrate a few.  I usually close and try again if you get the debug error or if you know a bit of vba i run modules separately and seems to work ok.  If any manually cap these systems and see glaring issues let me know and I can try to fix if its in my excel knowledge realm 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ALeX6he0ZtHPxUsQiZmJLKAfynOzyWoX/view?usp=sharing

VG sharing technique on your behalf...appreciative

have an excellent season on the RL
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