Series Record = 10-0-0
Results for 4/21:
Series #6 (game 3 wins) KC -102 @ tor 
Series #8 (game 2 wins) TB +105 @ cws
Series #9 (game 2 wins) PHI -138 @ atl
Series #10 (game 2) 8:05 FLA -143 @ hou 
Series #12 (game 2) 7:05 mil @ PIT +123
**optional series: 7:10 tex @ bos -188***
Pending:
TOR @ tb (4/23)
ariz @ COL (4/26) --fading ariz on the road
NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home
cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road
LAA @ det (4/30)
cws @ NYY (4/30)
chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road
min @ CLE (4/30)
Game 1 wins= 5
Game 2 wins = 4
Game 3 wins = 1
Series Record = 10-0-0
Plays for 4/21:
Series #10 (game 3) 8:05 FLA -121 @ hou
Series #12 (game 3) 12:35 mil @ PIT +139
**optional series: 7:10 tex @ bos -142***
Pending:
TOR @ tb (4/23)
ariz @ COL (4/26) --fading ariz on the road
NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home
cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road
mil @ SD (4/29)
LAA @ det (4/30)
cws @ NYY (4/30)
chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road
min @ CLE (4/30)
sf @ FLA (5/4) -- fading SF on the road
Game 1 wins= 5
Game 2 wins = 4
Game 3 wins = 1
Series Record = 10-0-0
Plays for 4/21:
Series #10 (game 3) 8:05 FLA -121 @ hou
Series #12 (game 3) 12:35 mil @ PIT +139
**optional series: 7:10 tex @ bos -142***
Pending:
TOR @ tb (4/23)
bal @ BOS (4/23) -- fading bal on the road
ariz @ COL (4/26) --fading ariz on the road
NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home
cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road
mil @ SD (4/29)
LAA @ det (4/30)
cws @ NYY (4/30)
chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road
min @ CLE (4/30)
tex @ SEA (4/30)
sf @ FLA (5/4) -- fading SF on the road
Game 1 wins= 5
Game 2 wins = 4
Game 3 wins = 1
. Lets hope we can clear board tomorrow in a good way!
Sorry guys, I am a numbers guy and like to make sure I give you all the info I collect. I looked back at last year when teams were in the spot to complete the sweep they were 82-66. Taking home teams in NL who lost 2 or 3 games and were playing to avoid the sweep they were 42-36 at avoiding being swept.
Now the slightly disturbing part. PIT was 1-4 in these situations at avoiding the sweep at home. Obviously it is a different season and a different team now, and I should point out all of these sweeps were after 8/1 so maybe they had given up at that point...so I don't know how much weight it holds with a fresh season.
FLA was 2-4 in similar spot last year as a road team trying to avoid being swept. Once again a different season and they are playing houston???
Sorry to drop numbers on you all the time, but I just want to make this a thread where we share as much info as we have so we can all make educated plays.
Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Jay,
That is a much more agreeable stat... Hopefully everyone layed of PIT today. I didn't have a good feel for it last night. I considered playing the over this morning but ended up laying off and not playing anything. I tried to look for multiple filters to try to avoid this play, but in almost every scenario it would still have been a go. Obviously, we want to avoid playing on crappy teams to get a win. Maybe once we have some more data we can get some filters using teamrankings or not playing a team for a win unless they win 50% or more of their previous 10 games or something. This system is definitely a work in progress. I have backtested the piss out it but it doesn't necessarily mean this season will go like the last few would have??? Hopefully, we can turn this around. Please everyone cap the games and only play what you are comfortable with. I would feel horrible if someone blindly makes these plays and loses their money. 
Series Record = 11-1-0
Plays for 4/21:
Series #10 (game 3) 8:05 FLA -121 @ hou
Series #12 (game 3) 12:35 mil @ PIT +139
**optional series: 7:10 tex @ bos -142***
Pending:
TOR @ tb (4/23)
bal @ BOS (4/23) -- fading bal on the road
ariz @ COL (4/26) --fading ariz on the road
NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home
cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road
mil @ SD (4/29)
LAA @ det (4/30)
cws @ NYY (4/30)
chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road
min @ CLE (4/30)
tex @ SEA (4/30)
sf @ FLA (5/4) -- fading SF on the road
Game 1 wins= 5
Game 2 wins = 4
Game 3 wins = 2
Losses: 1 -5.2U
Series Record = 11-1-0
Plays for 4/23:
Series #13 (game 1) 8:05 bal @ BOS -225, RL
Pending:
TOR @ tb (5/3)
bal @ BOS (4/23) -- fading bal on the road
ariz @ COL (4/26) --fading ariz on the road
NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home
cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road
mil @ SD (4/29)
MIL @ SD (4/29)
LAA @ det (4/30)
cws @ NYY (4/30)
chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road
min @ CLE (4/30)
tex @ SEA (4/30)
TOR @ cle (5/3)
sf @ FLA (5/4) -- fading SF on the road
CHIC @ pit--- fading pit at home
Game 1 wins= 5
Game 2 wins = 4
Game 3 wins = 2
Losses: 1 -5.2U
Series Record = 11-1-0
Plays for 4/23:
Series #13 (game 1) 8:05 bal @ BOS -225, RL
Pending:
bal @ BOS (4/23) -- fading bal on the road
ariz @ COL (4/26) --fading ariz on the road
NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home
cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road
mil @ SD (4/29)
MIL @ SD (4/29)
LAA @ det (4/30)
cws @ NYY (4/30)
chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road
min @ CLE (4/30)
tex @ SEA (4/30)
TOR @ cle (5/3)
sf @ FLA (5/4) -- fading SF on the road
CHIC @ pit--- fading pit at home
Game 1 wins= 5
Game 2 wins = 4
Game 3 wins = 2
Losses: 1 -5.2U
kirby,
I am going to post an optional series for this one. The odds are really high against toronto. I don't know how the next two games are going to go as far as the odds but we might be in trouble if all the games are +150 or higher... also toronto was 1-9 last year at TB. The alternative is to skip this series and take TOR at CLE whom they had a winning record against last year... I was going to skip it personally but can post it for those interested. The one thing TOR has going for them is their away ranking on teamrankings is higher than TB at home. What do you think?
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