Modified Sweep Chase 122-3 in AL in 2009

kirby,

looks like TOR doesn't care about any filters.  Looks like they are going to go to 6-1 as a road dog...   Had a feeling they may get it done but it is hard to justify putting it in the system when it would've been a skipped series in backtesting.  Hopefully you were on it and made some cash!

Series Record = 12-1-0

Results for 4/23: 

Series #13 (game 1 wins)     bal @ BOS -225 , RL

-- record counts on ML, will post the next game as many likely played this -1 or RL.

Pending:

bal @ BOS (4/23) -- fading bal on the road

ariz @ COL (4/26) --fading ariz on the road

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road

mil @ SD (4/29)

MIL @ SD (4/29)

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

tex @ SEA (4/30)

TOR @ cle (5/3)

sf @ FLA (5/4) -- fading SF on the road

CHIC @ pit--- fading pit at home

Game 1 wins= 5

Game 2 wins = 4

Game 3 wins = 2

Losses: 1 -5.2U 

Series Record = 12-1-0

Plays for 4/24: 

**Series #13 (game 2) 7:10       bal @ BOS -195, RL

**already a series win based on ML.  game posted for those playing this series on the RL

Pending:

bal @ BOS (4/23) -- fading bal on the road

ariz @ COL (4/26) --fading ariz on the road

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road

mil @ SD (4/29)

MIL @ SD (4/29)

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

tex @ SEA (4/30)

TOR @ cle (5/3)

sf @ FLA (5/4) -- fading SF on the road

CHIC @ pit--- fading pit at home

Game 1 wins= 5

Game 2 wins = 4

Game 3 wins = 2

Losses: 1 -5.2U 

NM,

Never really made it clear and have just been trying to tweek as we go a bit.  Basically:

1. Play ON any team that sweeps a series on the home or road on their next series of the same type

2. Play AGAINST any team that is swept in a series at home or road in their next series of the same type.

3. If the opening odds are 170 or more in the opposition of our desired result skip the series until the next one

4.  Not sure how to account for conflicting series, where we have two teams we should either be playing ON or AGAINST.  In these scenarios I have been posting the series as a pickem, but not including it as a system play.

so far, that is it.  We have thought about using teamrankings.com as a filter where if our team is less than 4 or 5 points below the opponent home vs away that we would skip it, but I have no way of backtesting and this filter would not have eliminated our first loss....  The only thing that would have is that pit was 5-9 or so against MIL last year and that is a team they have problems with even moreso than most.  The only reason the opening odds greater than 170 is included is because there is a high frequency of the favored team getting a sweep in this situation.

Seeing some more sweeps today.

sea @ CHW-- ws sweeps sea

---sea @ KC 4/26 --- fading SEA on the road

---kc @ CWS 5/3

pit swept @ HOU

--pit @ MIL 4/26 -- fading pit on the road

--cin @ HOU 4/27

CHC sweep mil

---CHC @ pit 5/4

--PIT @ mil 4/26 -- fading mil @ home

Series Record = 12-1-0

Plays for 4/26: 

Series #14 (game 1) 8:40   ariz @ COL 102

Series #15 (game 1) 8:10    sea @ KC +152

***pick em series  (game 1) 8:10  pit @ mil -199 ***

***both teams swept last series, pit just swept by mil last week, pit 1-9 at mil last year 

Pending:

PIT @ mil 4/26 -- fading mil @ home

pit @ MIL 4/26 -- fading pit on the road

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road

cin @ HOU (4/27)

mil @ SD (4/29)

MIL @ SD (4/29)

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

tex @ SEA (4/30)

kc @ CWS (5/3)

TOR @ cle (5/3)

sf @ FLA (5/4) -- fading SF on the road

CHIC @ pit--- fading pit at home

CHC @ pit 5/4

Game 1 wins= 6

Game 2 wins = 4

Game 3 wins = 2

Losses: 1 -5.2U 

Series Record = 12-1-0

Plays for 4/26: 

Series #14 (game 1) 8:40   ariz @ COL 102

Series #15 (game 1) 8:10    sea @ KC +152

Series #16 (game 1) 7:10    lad @ NYM +123

---Series #17 (game 1) 8:15    atl @ STL +102---

***pick em series  (game 1) 8:10  pit @ mil -199 ***

***both teams swept last series, pit just swept by mil last week, pit 1-9 at mil last year 

--- four game series----

Pending:

PIT @ mil 4/26 -- fading mil @ home

pit @ MIL 4/26 -- fading pit on the road

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road

cin @ HOU (4/27)

mil @ SD (4/29)

MIL @ SD (4/29)

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

tex @ SEA (4/30)

kc @ CWS (5/3)

TOR @ cle (5/3)

sf @ FLA (5/4) -- fading SF on the road

CHIC @ pit--- fading pit at home

CHC @ pit 5/4

Game 1 wins= 6

Game 2 wins = 4

Game 3 wins = 2

Losses: 1 -5.2U 

The capitalized team is the play.  Both of these teams were swept in their previous series which is the point of that being eliminated as a system play and merely listed as a pickem series.  I keep track of all the sweeps and mark them as a fade play or if nothing is stated we are playing on a team that swept its opponent last time.  If you will notice we have a few series coming up where we are supposed to be fading one team and their opponent is coming off a sweep.  This may be a chance to double down on these series.

Series Record = 14-1-0

Results for 4/26: 

Series #14 (game 1) 8:40   ariz @ COL 102    

Series #15 (game 1) 8:10    sea @ KC +152     

Series #16 (game 1) 7:10    lad @ NYM +123    PPD

---Series #17 (game 1) 8:15    atl @ STL +102   

***pick em series  (game 1) 8:10  pit @ mil -199 ***

***both teams swept last series, pit just swept by mil last week, pit 1-9 at mil last year 

--- four game series----

Pending:

PIT @ mil 4/26 -- fading mil @ home

pit @ MIL 4/26 -- fading pit on the road

NYY @ bal (4/27)-- fading BAL at home

cin @ HOU (4/27) fading cin on the road

cin @ HOU (4/27)

mil @ SD (4/29)

MIL @ SD (4/29)

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

tex @ SEA (4/30)

kc @ CWS (5/3)

TOR @ cle (5/3)

sf @ FLA (5/4) -- fading SF on the road

CHIC @ pit--- fading pit at home

CHC @ pit 5/4

Game 1 wins= 8

Game 2 wins = 4

Game 3 wins = 2

Losses: 1 -5.2U 

Trying to follow your system ... just curious how much profit came from the 14 wins  If you had to go to game 2 and even game 3 to win a series there had to be losses in the first and/or second games. Are you doubling up to account for those losses. Looking at the games fore 4/27 there is a lot of juice. Not bashing just trying to see the potential for the system.

Thanks

I honestly can't tell you the overall profit.  This is a three game chase where you would need to bet enough to cover your previous bet and make 1U profit.  As you see tonight, the KC play would get you a 1.5U win.  I keep track of the lost amount if you were to use a straight martingale system which is -5.2U betting 1U on underdog in game 1 and then betting enough to win 1U on the series.  Most of the plays have had reasonable juice.  The mets first game was delayed but they were +120 or so today.  The other issue is most people are running labby lines for this.  If someone was following this system to the t and wanted to keep track of their profit using that system.  There is data up the wazzoo at the beginning of the thread showing the history of what the percentages would be for all the games in the series, if I remember correctly they were all above or near 50% which is profitable using labouchere money management.

The record by game is easy to calculate based on the wins listed above.

Game 1 =   8-7

Game 2's = 4-3

Game 3's =  2-1

If you don't want to chase you can run a single line labby and make the plays using that system you should end up with a profit.

Rizz,

I was surprised to see your response about unit tracking; I would think with Kansas City at +150 then you would play .75U to win 1U.  I have not been wagering a unit, you say you keep playing to win 1 unit so I do not get why the difference between favorites and underdogs.  Anyways, the system has been playing out although NYY tonight at -205 is going to be a tough pill to swallow.  I do not post daily but appreciate your hardwork.

deken,

There is no problem with the way you are playing it...  The only time I would lay 1U on a dog that big is game 1.  After that I have been betting it the same as you are.  I got the NYY and -155.  I play all of these high juice games on -1 or -1.5.  A loss on a team with that high of juice could blow us out of the water, esp if you are not using labby money management.

Series Record = 14-1-0

pick em's = 1-0

Results for 4/27: 

Series #14 (game 2) 8:40        ariz @ COL -193    RL  

Series #16 (game 1,2) 4:10, 7:10    lad @ NYM ?? ,

Series #18 (game 1) 7:05              NYY -153 @ bal

---Series #19 (game 1) 7:10           cin @ HOU -120 

pick em series  (game 2) 8:10   pit @ mil -   

Pending:

mil @ SD (4/29)

MIL @ SD (4/29)

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

tex @ SEA (4/30)

kc @ CWS (5/3)

TOR @ cle (5/3)

sf @ FLA (5/4) -- fading SF on the road

CHIC @ pit--- fading pit at home

CHC @ pit 5/4

Game 1 wins= 9

Game 2 wins = 5

Game 3 wins = 2

Losses: 1 -5.2U 

Series Record = 16-1-0

pick em's = 1-0

Plays for 4/28: 

Series #18 (game 2) 7:05              NYY -206 @ bal , RL ?

Series #19 (game 2) 8:05              cin @ HOU -113 

Pending:

mil @ SD (4/29)

MIL @ SD (4/29)

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

tex @ SEA (4/30)

kc @ CWS (5/3)

TOR @ cle (5/3)

sf @ FLA (5/4) -- fading SF on the road

CHIC @ pit--- fading pit at home

CHC @ pit 5/4

Game 1 wins= 9

Game 2 wins = 5

Game 3 wins = 2

Losses: 1 -5.2U