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Modified Sweep Chase 122-3 in AL in 2009

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Prospect
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Posted: #176

Wow... between your 3 systems, the double play on Houston is the only SOB that is hanging us up right now.

Thanks for posting, explaining, etc.

Keep'em coming!

 
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Posted: #177

Series Record = 17-1-0

pick em's = 1-0

Results for 4/28: 

Series #18 (game 2) 7:05              NYY -206 @ bal , RL

Series #19 (game 2) 8:05              cin @ HOU -113 

 

Pending:

mil @ SD (4/29)

MIL @ SD (4/29)

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

tex @ SEA (4/30)

kc @ CWS (5/3)

TOR @ cle (5/3)

sf @ FLA (5/4) -- fading SF on the road

CHIC @ pit--- fading pit at home

CHC @ pit 5/4

Game 1 wins= 9

Game 2 wins = 6

Game 3 wins = 2

Losses: 1 -5.2U 

 
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Posted: #178

Series Record = 17-1-0

pick em's = 1-0

Results for 4/28: 

Series #19 (game 3) 8:05              cin @ HOU -160

pickem #2 (game 1) 8:05              mil @ sd -132

 

Pending:

mil @ SD (4/29)

MIL @ SD (4/29)

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

tex @ SEA (4/30)

kc @ CWS (5/3)

TOR @ cle (5/3)

sf @ FLA (5/4) -- fading SF on the road

CHIC @ pit--- fading pit at home

CHC @ pit 5/4

sf @ NYM (5/7)

lad @ AZ (5/10) - fading lad on the road

Game 1 wins= 9

Game 2 wins = 6

Game 3 wins = 2

Losses: 1 -5.2U 

 
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Posted: #179
Quote Originally Posted by therizz:

Series Record = 17-1-0

pick em's = 1-0

Plays for 4/29: 

Series #19 (game 3) 8:05              cin @ HOU -160

pickem #2 (game 1) 8:05              mil @ sd -132

 

Pending:

mil @ SD (4/29)

MIL @ SD (4/29)

LAA @ det  (4/30)

cws @ NYY  (4/30)

chw @ NYY (4/30) --fading CWS on road

min @ CLE (4/30)

tex @ SEA (4/30)

kc @ CWS (5/3)

TOR @ cle (5/3)

sf @ FLA (5/4) -- fading SF on the road

CHIC @ pit--- fading pit at home

CHC @ pit 5/4

sf @ NYM (5/7)

lad @ AZ (5/10) - fading lad on the road

Game 1 wins= 9

Game 2 wins = 6

Game 3 wins = 2

Losses: 1 -5.2U 

 
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Posted: #180

HOU is pissing me off!  It is hard to determine a filter for these plays.  One thing I am noticing is some of these teams just do not play well against certain teams.  Pit was owned by MIL which happened a lot last season.  HOU was 4-12 against cincy last year and are struggling with them now.  We could consider not playing on teams that don't have a 40 or 50% record against a certain team over the last 10 games or consider just not playing on teams in the bottom 1/4 of the rankings even if they are playing another crappy team???  Just some thoughts.  Hopefully houston will get it done with their ace on the mound tomorrow

 
Prospect
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Posted: #181
Hey therizz, awesome job on all three chase system threads.  Curious, what betting method do you use?  I noticed that your 1 loss = -5.2 units so it is definitely not martingale.  Appreciate your time in explaining! 
 
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Posted: #182
Therizz,

I have been following this post since the beginning and there are some things I wanted to ask you. I noticed that you posted a 17-1 record but i wanted to clarify some things.

I understand the system: The team who sweeps another or is swept at home or away will win or lose the series. So if the A's sweep the Indians at home, they will win the series at home no matter who the team is

BUT. how do you have a 17-1 record if:

-SF swept @ HOU, but lost the series in LAD.
-PIT got swept @HOU, but won the series @MIL
-HOU swept PIT, but lost the series @ CIN
-TOR swept at bal, but lost the series @ TB

aren't these all minus plays?

thanks for the help!

 
Prospect
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Posted: #183
Mdomen:

You got it wrong.

If a team sweeps (at home for example), in the next home series he will win one game almost 96% of the time. The same on the road.

On the other hand, if a team gets sweep (at home again), in the next home series he will lose a game almost 96% of the time. So far, just one time this hasnt been the case this year (but it was with Pitt...)

Someone correct me if Im wrong...
 
Captain
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Posted: #184
its only considered a loss if the get sweept, all your trying to do is get one win OUT OF THE SERIES FOR THE TM YOUR PICKING, THEY DO NOT HAVE TO WIN THE SERIES..dam sorry bout caps just relaized they were on
 
Prospect
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Posted: #185
Quote Originally Posted by MasterJ:

Hey therizz, awesome job on all three chase system threads.  Curious, what betting method do you use?  I noticed that your 1 loss = -5.2 units so it is definitely not martingale.  Appreciate your time in explaining! 

Should be -4.76 units as far as I can see
gm1 +117 0.85
gm2 +123 1.50
gm3 +139 2.41

It is a chase system, you only need one win in the chase to gain 1 unit on the other hand a "loss" will cost you more than just 1 unit.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #186
ohh okay i get it.

Thanks sahla, milkman,riquelme!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #187
Hey therizz, thanks for everything. Please let me add you as a friend because I have two or three questions...thanks!
 
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Posted: #188
I tried to calculate the lost units using martingale starting with a bet of 1U on game 1....  I don't play any of my systems this way.  I run a 3 line labby system for them all and would recommend everyone else do the same, but it is your money....  Toward the beginning of the thread it shows some of the losses from backtesting.  You can see that a couple of times there were losses within a week or so of each other.  If this was to happen using martingale it may wipe you out!  This is the first season for doing this so I am playing small units but I have backtested as thoroughly as I can it doesn't guarantee success.  Also as we go we are trying to work on filters, so far the teams like BAL, HOU, PIT seem to be the main culprits for problems and I treat any series playing these teams to win carefully, although hopefully HOU will get it done tonight!
 
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Posted: #189

Quote Originally Posted by Riquelme8:

Hey therizz, thanks for everything. Please let me add you as a friend because I have two or three questions...thanks!

accepted, fire away with the questions.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #190
Also i have a certain chase system that i just finished doing the backtesting on from 1990-present for NBA AND MLB that i found that has never encountered enough losses to eat up the alotted bankroll.Thats 20 plus years of data, so its pretty significant. I am no way shape of form a tout, i just use simple tech analysis to get my "zones of entry" coupled with fundamental analysis to give me the best exact entry to start my system. If anyone is serious about changing their financial lives and want this info at a very reasonable price, email me at jpanoma1@hotmail.com .  You can already see what my simple info has done for supereagle in his chase,  he simply just  took the chance to listen, thus hes reeping the benefits, you can as well....
 
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Posted: #191

Quote Originally Posted by jpanoma1:

Also i have a certain chase system that i just finished doing the backtesting on from 1990-present for NBA AND MLB that i found that has never encountered enough losses to eat up the alotted bankroll.Thats 20 plus years of data, so its pretty significant. I am no way shape of form a tout, i just use simple tech analysis to get my "zones of entry" coupled with fundamental analysis to give me the best exact entry to start my system. If anyone is serious about changing their financial lives and want this info at a very reasonable price, email me at jpanoma1@hotmail.com .  You can already see what my simple info has done for supereagle in his chase,  he simply just  took the chance to listen, thus hes reeping the benefits, you can as well....

Seriously, your going to post this shat in all my threads!  You are missing the point of what we are trying to do here.

          

 
Prospect
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Posted: #192

not sure how this site works, but on other gambling sites this dude would be banned for posting crap like this in someones thread!

Let's Get Houston in.

I had such a good day yesterday and I'm still trying to get the hang of these multiple labby lines, i have reset things with a base bet on them.

 

Thanks Rizz!

 
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Posted: #193
Hey Rizz! You are right.  I got burned by 2 "C" games lost back in December on both NBA and HNL with Martingale on the same week.  With -165 on 3pts on NBA and NHL PL @ mostly -200+, the 2 losses equated to about 40 units.  However, I researched on Labby but still don't quite understand how it work.  If you have the time, can you please give me an example?  I got Cubs today @ -170 and they lost.  How much would I bet on B game if let say the line tomorrow is -120?  Thanks and appreciate the help.
 
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Posted: #194

Quote Originally Posted by MasterJ:

Hey Rizz! You are right.  I got burned by 2 "C" games lost back in December on both NBA and HNL with Martingale on the same week.  With -165 on 3pts on NBA and NHL PL @ mostly -200+, the 2 losses equated to about 40 units.  However, I researched on Labby but still don't quite understand how it work.  If you have the time, can you please give me an example?  I got Cubs today @ -170 and they lost.  How much would I bet on B game if let say the line tomorrow is -120?  Thanks and appreciate the help.

Hypothetical if you were playing to win 10 per game

Opening lines were

5-5-5-5

5-5-5-5

5-5-5-5

Lost 17 on game 1 so put half on line 1 and half on line 2

5-5-5-5-8.5

5-5-5-5-8.5

5-5-5-5

so if you were to make your B bet you would wager to win 13.5

I usually update my lines at the end of the day.  I cross of my wins first, then add my losses.  If you are just starting to get comfortable with this I would do it his way. 

 
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Posted: #195

Another sweep today, atl swept at STL

cin @ STL 4/30

atl @ WAS 5/4

 
Prospect
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Posted: #196
Rizz...I send you the pvm message...thanks for your time and support!
 
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Posted: #197
Not good guys.  HOU not hitting for crap and oswalt just gives up a two run bomb with two outs!!!  Lets go HOU play with some pride on your home field!! 
 
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Posted: #198
Guys, I am done with these shat teams!  Even if HOU pulls out a miracle I am done with HOU, PIT, BAL.  Really how many wins do we think these teams are going to generate for us this year??  They have already caused us 1, and likely 2, losses.  They have wiped out all of our profits.  I will post these plays to track the system if they arise but will not be putting anymore money on these type of teams.
 
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Posted: #199

HOU SUCKS

 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #200
Rizz...reading both threads and I noticed both systems generate quite a few plays...do you play both systems? Are there a lot of plays that conflict? Thanks for all of your hard work! Oh yea and F&*K Houston!
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