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My own NCAAF system (part 2)

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by Jaycut:

Dude how many wins have you had with this system so far...??

BOL


Well, I didn't come up with the filters to improve it until a few weeks ago.  So last week was the first week the system had any official plays post filters.  So filter 2 is 1-1 and the others haven't had any wagers yet.  The system this year in general before I came up with filters was 4-2 starting from week 4.

System 2 is 5-2 and the 2-team ML parlays derived from system 2 are 3-0.
 
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Posted: #27
Systems combined to go 9-3 this week.  System 1 went 3-2 but both losses were the "no filter" plays so just small unit wagers, not to mention both frustrating losses that were blown in the final minutes to just barely fall short of covering.  System 2 went 4-1, and the two 2-team parlays derived from system 2 went 2-0.








 
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Posted: #28
System 1:
No Filter: Notre Dame -29
No Filter: Arkansas -36.5

Filter 1: TCU -33
Filter 1: Ohio St. -38.5 

Filter 2: Boise St. -34.5 

System 2:
Iowa -17
Idaho -3
Baylor +12.5
N. Illinois -3
Oregon +3.5

2-team parlays:
Iowa ML / SD State ML

Utah ML / Fresno St. ML

 
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Posted: #29

Not bad Pistol.....not bad at all!!

Nice to see my proposed filter doing a good job here....We'll have to keep playing this one....much as I hate laying those big chalky digits.

 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by KMang:

Not bad Pistol.....not bad at all!!

Nice to see my proposed filter doing a good job here....We'll have to keep playing this one....much as I hate laying those big chalky digits.



Yeah, it is definitely uncomfortable wagering on teams giving 30+ points.  But I have to remember at least in theory the higher the line, the stronger the play with this system.  The concept of the system is to find games that should be basically out of reach by halftime so they spend the majority of the second half rushing, thus (hopefully) exposing the opponent's bad run defense to run up the score in the process.

The only downside is you seem to get some teams give up in the second half in a blowout like Arkansas today, they had a 42 - 0 lead at halftime, then their defense allowed 27 in the second half including a TD in the final minutes and they lost ATS by just a half a point.  Or the backups come in like Notre dame tonight, they had the spread covered late in the 4th when the idiot backup QB fumbled when they were going in for more leading to a Wash St. TD.  Seems like all the losses so far with this system has fit  a similar situation as one of those.
 
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Posted: #31
Here is what we have for this week:

System 1:

F0: Troy -24

F1:  Northern Illinois -21

F2: Arizona -31


System 2:

Iowa -17.5 (meets system if you can get line at -18.5 or better)

Minnesota -6 (meets system if you can get line at -6 or better)

San Jose St. +13 (meets system if you can get line at +9 or better)

2-team parlay (derived from system 2):

*Will post Wednesday

Results to date:

System 1:
F0: 0-2
F1: 2-0
F3: 2-1

System 2: 9-3
2-team parlays: 5-0
 
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Posted: #32
Good work Pistol! 

Can you explain what your system 2 is?

Thanks in advance.
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by jebe99:

Good work Pistol! 

Can you explain what your system 2 is?

Thanks in advance.



System 2 hasn't been explained because that is one system I came up with that I am keeping to myself.  I will gladly post the plays though.  Basically, it involves finding lines that are off and applying a couple filters to weed out the stronger plays.


 
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Posted: #34
The 2-team ML parlay derived from system 2 this week is:

Iowa ML
Air Force ML
 
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Posted: #35
Your playing a 2 game parlay with monster fav's whats your line on the 2 gamer? -1500
 
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Posted: #36
Try -345, Chachi.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by KissAPistol:

Here is what we have for this week:

System 1:

F0: Troy -24

F1:  Northern Illinois -21

F2: Arizona -31


System 2:

Iowa -17.5 (meets system if you can get line at -18.5 or better)

Minnesota -6 (meets system if you can get line at -6 or better)

San Jose St. +13 (meets system if you can get line at +9 or better)

2-team parlay (derived from system 2):

*Will post Wednesday

Results to date:

System 1:
F0: 0-2
F1: 2-0
F3: 2-1

System 2: 9-3
2-team parlays: 5-0


KissAPistol can you explain the System 2, i just saw the explanation for system 1..btw, i really like the system, i would like to back it this week....great job!
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by gentruchi:



KissAPistol can you explain the System 2, i just saw the explanation for system 1..btw, i really like the system, i would like to back it this week....great job!


It isn't a situational or trend system like system 1, so not something that can be explained easily. 

Northern Illinois was an easy winner tonight for system 1 (filter 1).
 
 
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Posted: #39
System 1 had a good week with both the filter 1 and 2 plays winning.  Probably should just eliminate no filter plays since they have struggled.  System 2 tanked last week. 

Just 1 play this week:

System 1:
F1: UL Monroe -21

Nothing for system 2

updated records:
System 1:
F1: 3-0
F2: 3-1

System 2: 9-6
Sys2  2-team parlays: 5-1

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