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New YPPT Method

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Legend
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Posted: #401
This is not my system.

This is the thread's creator roughshod31's system.

What I did was create same formula in Excel to post faster results here.

He has to do it by hand, game by game.

But some people have different results somehow, meaning I don't know what the heck they are doing.

I may have the incorrect formula, but I am following these steps:

Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

Full Math Original Version:

Boise St. 68.77 (SOS)    1.068

Tulsa       60.00 (SOS       .932

68.77 + 60.00 = 128.77 / 2 = 64.39

60.00 / 64.39 = .932 (Tulsa) 68.77 / 64.39 = 1.068 (Boise St.)

Boise (O)   191.6 (R) (+28.8)   247.8 (P) (+37.6)   10.9 YPPT (-1.3)

Tulsa  (D)   95.0   (R) (-31.1)    204.2 (P) (+6.5)     18.5 YPPT (-0.3)

Boise St.

191.6 - 31.1 = 160.5

95.0 + 28.8 = 123.8    

160.5 + 123.8 = 284.3 / 2 = 142.2 x 1.068 = 151.9 Rushing

247.8 + 6.5 = 254.3

204.2 + 37.6 = 241.8

254.3 + 241.8 = 496.1 / 2 = 248.1 x 1.068 = 265.0 Passing

416.9 Total Yds.

10.9 - 0.3 = 10.6

18.5 - 1.3 = 17.2

10.6 + 17.2 = 27.8 / 2 = 13.9 x .932 Tulsa's SOS = 13.0 YPPT

416.9 TYDS / 13.0 YPPT =  32.1 Projected Points


Tulsa

168.0 - 31.5 = 136.5

102.0 - 6.5 = 95.5

136.5 + 95.5 = 232.0 / 2 = 116 x .932 = 108.1 Rushing

246.2 - 52.9 = 193.3

171.8 + 7.5 = 179.3

193.3 + 179.3 = 372.6 / 2 = 186.3 x .932 = 173.6 Passing

281.7 Total Yds

12.6 + 2.8 = 15.4

19.0 + 1.2 = 20.2

15.4 + 20.2 = 35.6 / 2 = 17.8 x 1.068 Boise SOS = 19.0 YPPT

281.7 TYDS / 19.0 YPPT = 14.8 Projected Points

Hope this helps as this is the formula in its simplest form

GL


 
Legend
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Posted: #402
That's now how I wanted that post to come out.


 
Prospect
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Posted: #403
so do we agree that this only works for the NFL?

Or are you guys confident enough to use in the NCAAF as well?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #404
Hey rinconen,
what do you mean by variance of 6 or more? Do you just mean the difference of the line and and predicted score being more than 6?
Quote Originally Posted by rinconen:

I got the same thing ncsutodd.

I like the system. The methodolgy seems sound. I think what I'm going to do is bet on games where the projected spread is significantly different than the actual spread. Last week's picks where the variance was 6 or more points went 6-2. So, based on that, I'm taking:

SD -5 1/2

NE -15 (might buy up to -14)

SF +3

Atl +4

Ari +7 (unless weather is horrendous)

Phi -7

The only bad thing is that these are all road teams. But, looking over Week 7, there are lots of bad teams at home this week - Car, KC, STL, Cle, TB, Oak, Was. So, I guess it just works out that way.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #405
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:



Let me correct myself and give breakdown in this case people I know people will make a mistake here.

NEW ENGLAND PROJECTED YPPT = 9.62

14.90 + (-2.90) = 12.00
13.20 + (-1.90) = 11.30

12.00 + 11.30 = 23.30 / 2 = 11.65

11.65 x [0.826 (Tampa Bay's SOS number)] = 9.62



TAMPA BAY PROJECTED YPPT = 26.41

18.70 + (+3.20) = 21.90
19.50 + (+3.60) = 23.10

21.90 + 23.10 = 45.00 / 2 = 22.50

22.50 x [1.174 (New England's SOS number)] = 26.41



You gotta remember that this game is being played in England... and the motivation factors that'll be displayed or lack of.
 
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Posted: #406

These are the numbers for Tulsa/UTEP

Tulsa 200+244=444/15.73=28.22

UTEP 99+222=321/13.1 =24.5

Should have went int OT at 27

And how are you'll coming up with 50 pts for New England when they've over 50 one time

 
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Posted: #407

NE 140+306=446/11.22=39.75

TB 72+145=217/14=15.5

38-17 NE

 
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Posted: #408

SF 117+173=290/15.98=18.14

HOU 65+268=333/14.98=22.22

21-17 HOU

 
Prospect
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Posted: #409
VG,
I didn't take the last New england game into consideration.  that game was a joke and can't be use towards new england's average.  without it, I came up with 42-10
 
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Posted: #410

FLAST 110+223=333/12.97=25.67

NC       117+212=339/11.77=28.80

28-24 NC

 
Prospect
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Posted: #411
VG,
I see what you are doing.  one thing I added on my spreadsheet is the HFA.  NFL HFA is 1.21, NCAAF HFA is 3.5.  I add these values to my SOS calculations.  It seemed to predict a little better.
As a side note, the HFA value changes every week so make sure you look it up and incorporate it weekly.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #412
rkydkydoc,
how did you come up with those numbers?
 
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Posted: #413
Which Game?
 
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Posted: #414

Here is NE

NE 22.31(1.14)

TB 15.70+hfa1.21=16.91 (.86)

22.31+16.91=39.22/2=19.61 (22.31/19.61=1.14)

R) 116+172=288/2=144

     +2 - +45 = -43/2= -21.5

     144 + -21.5 = 122.5 x 1.14 =140

P)  288+199 = 487/2 = 243.5

      64 - -14 = 50/2= 25

      243.5 + 25 =268.5 x 1.14 =306

YPPT) 14.9 +13.2 =28.1/2 =14.05

         +1.9 - +2.9 = -1

          14.05- (-1)=13.05 x .86 (TB DEF) =11.22

140+306=446/11.22=39.75 

 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #415
skan how do you come up with the HFA numbers?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #416
rkydkydoc,

what are you doing different compared to the formula that VGPOP uses. I think they are too subtle for me to spot.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #417
rm2673,
It's on this website.  https://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl09.htm

NFL 2009 through games of October 19 Monday - Week 6
HOME ADVANTAGE=  1.21
 
Prospect
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Posted: #418
Rkydkydoc,

So you are subtracting instead of adding together?

+2 - +45 = -43/2= -21.5

64 - -14 = 50/2= 25
 
Prospect
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Posted: #419
okay it seems that VGPOP and rkydkydoc are using two different formulas.   my question is which one is better?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #420
VG is using the original formula and rkydkydoc is using the beta 1 formula.  I think there is a total of 4 different versions last I read.

The original add the values together.  Beta 1 takes the difference, Beta 2 is original plus 3 pts to home team, beta 3 is original +/- 1.5 for each team HFA.

I could be wrong in order.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #421
it would be awesome if someone could go back and do older weeks in the NFL to see how this has done, maybe something like week 4 on so you'd have enough data
 
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Posted: #422
Awesome thread rough, your name should be rough research, both you guys are great and I appreciate the time you and research put into your research, BOL to you this week
 
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Posted: #423
rm, yes, I meant the difference between the line and predicted score.
 
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Posted: #424
There has to be negitive numbers If NE off is +2 over def off ave. and TB Def is +45 over opp ove NE is a negitive 43 yds. And remember when yppt is smaller on offense than opp def it is a POSITIVE number because the smaller the number the better. Unlike when your off is less than opp def ave which becomes a negitive number.
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #425
hey rkydkydoc,

if it is not too much trouble -- I am not that smart catching onto new things -- can you do a full math version like VGPOP did for one of this week's game using your system?
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