New YPPT Method

Full Math Original Version:

Boise St. 68.77 (SOS)    1.068

Tulsa       60.00 (SOS       .932

68.77 + 60.00 = 128.77 / 2 = 64.39

60.00 / 64.39 = .932 (Tulsa) 68.77 / 64.39 = 1.068 (Boise St.)

Boise (O)   191.6 (R) (+28.8)   247.8 (P) (+37.6)   10.9 YPPT (-1.3)

Tulsa  (D)   95.0   (R) (-31.1)    204.2 (P) (+6.5)     18.5 YPPT (-0.3)

Boise St.

191.6 - 31.1 = 160.5

95.0 + 28.8 = 123.8    

160.5 + 123.8 = 284.3 / 2 = 142.2 x 1.068 = 151.9 Rushing

247.8 + 6.5 = 254.3

204.2 + 37.6 = 241.8

254.3 + 241.8 = 496.1 / 2 = 248.1 x 1.068 = 265.0 Passing

416.9 Total Yds.

10.9 - 0.3 = 10.6

18.5 - 1.3 = 17.2

10.6 + 17.2 = 27.8 / 2 = 13.9 x .932 Tulsa's SOS = 13.0 YPPT

416.9 TYDS / 13.0 YPPT =  32.1 Projected Points

Tulsa

168.0 - 31.5 = 136.5

102.0 - 6.5 = 95.5

136.5 + 95.5 = 232.0 / 2 = 116 x .932 = 108.1 Rushing

246.2 - 52.9 = 193.3

171.8 + 7.5 = 179.3

193.3 + 179.3 = 372.6 / 2 = 186.3 x .932 = 173.6 Passing

281.7 Total Yds

12.6 + 2.8 = 15.4

19.0 + 1.2 = 20.2

15.4 + 20.2 = 35.6 / 2 = 17.8 x 1.068 Boise SOS = 19.0 YPPT

281.7 TYDS / 19.0 YPPT = 14.8 Projected Points

Hope this helps as this is the formula in its simplest form

GL

I got the same thing ncsutodd.

I like the system. The methodolgy seems sound. I think what I'm going to do is bet on games where the projected spread is significantly different than the actual spread. Last week's picks where the variance was 6 or more points went 6-2. So, based on that, I'm taking:

SD -5 1/2

NE -15 (might buy up to -14)

SF +3

Atl +4

Ari +7 (unless weather is horrendous)

Phi -7

The only bad thing is that these are all road teams. But, looking over Week 7, there are lots of bad teams at home this week - Car, KC, STL, Cle, TB, Oak, Was. So, I guess it just works out that way.