All Forums | Systems & Strategies

New YPPT Method

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 253696
Posts: 1286
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #1

Some of you may recognize me from college bowl season, this is a new and improved YPPT predictive model.


                        Rushing  (+/-)  Passing (+/-) Total Yds.  YPPT(+/-)

Minnesota (O)    123.5 (+2.5)    198.0 (-27.0)   321.5       10.9 (-3.0)

St. Louis   (D)     135.0 (+34.1)  224.5 (+8.3)    359.5       13.3 (-1.8)

Totals/2              129.3 (+18.3)  211.3 (-9.4)     340.5       12.1 (-2.4)

Total Pre SOS     147.6             201.9              349.5        9.7

SOS (M)  .945      139.4             190.8              330.2       N/A

SOS (STL) 1.055                                                           10.2

                                 330.2 YDS / 10.2 YPPT  =  32.4

                                32/33 Not Common  Scores Use 31/34

Predicted outcome using this method.

Minnesota      31

St. Louis          7

GL  



 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 24546
Posted: #2
I don't get it but Minny all the way
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 60
Posted: #3
Hey roughshod,
I don't think I am going to finish the math in time!...lol...Are you going to post all nfl games this week?  I like the way the new system is it's just going to take me time...thanks for posting the thorough example
 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #4

I will try to get them all.

Dallas            27

Kansas City   17

Upset Special

Cleveland        23

Buffalo            20



 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 60
Posted: #5
Thanks roughshod, I appreciate it.  Good luck to you too!
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #6

Cincinnati            24

Baltimore             21

I'm Trying LOL.

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #7

Pittsburgh             24

Detroit                  23


I'm Loving the DOGS today baby.

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #8

Washington        10

Carolina              14

UNDER   37.5

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #9

Tampa Bay         14

Philadelphia        31

1 to go in the early games.

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #10

Oakland        14

NY Giants      23

Note:   I ONLY play SIDES that are +/-  4 PTS  & TOTALS that are +/- 10.5 PTS on predicted models. Todays early plays are.

Minnesota  -10.5

Washington UNDER 38.0

Cleveland  +5.5

Cincinnati   +9.0

Detroit     +11.0

GL



 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #11

Sorry Missed

Oakland   +15.0

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 60
Posted: #12
Thanks again, roughshod!  Next week I will try to do this myself...lol  One thing about the min/stl game as far as sos.
 
On team rankings I see min as a 25.8 and stl as a 23.7 sos.
 
23.7/25.8 = 1.088 for min?
.088/2 = 1.044 for min and .956 for stl?
 
Maybe you are using a different site or I am doing something wrong?
 
Thanks again, for everything.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2004
Posts: 3635
Posted: #13
Don't you have to consider that winning and losing games greatly effect yppt. As games go on teams benefit from winning or look worse because they are losing. For example NFL defenses are awful after they've been on the field for 50 plays. Also, quarterbacks look better when they haven't been hit etc, etc. I have no idea how to incorporate that into your formula or if you would want to. The first place I would look would be in the NCAAF where any good formula would prob result in Bama, Flor, and Texas as the top rated team.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #14

Sorry lou  I used.

Minnesota    19.60 SOS

St.Louis       21.86 SOS

                   41.46/2 = 20.73

                   19.60/20.73 = .945  (Using Sagarin SOS)

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #15

Mid Afternooners are done.

Atlanta              13

San Francisco    21


New England      13

Denver                14


Houston               17

Arizona                 34


Jacksonville          21

Seattle                 23

GL    See Ya  for Tenn./Indy.

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #16

Late Plays.

San Francisco   Even

Arizona              -5.5

Denver                +3.0   &    Under   41.5

GL

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 342
Posted: #17
try to figure out the math - so far you doing well today


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 60
Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

Sorry lou  I used.

Minnesota    19.60 SOS

St.Louis       21.86 SOS

                   41.46/2 = 20.73

                   19.60/20.73 = .945  (Using Sagarin SOS)

 

No need to appoligize roughshod,  I was looking at the wrong thing.  You have been a big help!  Again, I appreciate it!

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #19

It has been a prosperous day for the predictive model going 8-2.

Tonights Game

Indianapolis        28

Tennessee          17

Play: Indianapolis -3.5

GL

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2008
Posts: 10
Posted: #20
willing to explain your system in more detail?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 60
Posted: #21
Excellent job roughshod!  Last time I knew, 80% against the spread was pretty darn good!  I realize it doesn't happen every week but 8-2 in ANY week is great!  Thanks for sharing.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 55
Posted: #22
Can you break down the math?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 55
Posted: #23
What is YPPT?
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2009
Posts: 1871
Posted: #24
No clue how the math works but your algebraic equations seemed to work out, well done!
 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #25

Thanks everyone the niceness means alot.

I will try to explain the math w/the Jets/Dolphins game.

YPPT is Yards Per Point.

All Forums | Systems & Strategies
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.