The end part of the process is pure common sense. 16 PTS. can only happen 3 ways (commonly) which are all unlikely given that the Jets are only projected for 270 YDS. (2 TDs + 2PT con., a safety, or 3 FG's.) That being said 14 is more likely.
Projected Score
NY Jets 14
Miami 17
GL
Interesting approach you have here. I love systems, even the crazy ones.
The most important factor here is tha YPPT (Yards Per Points), and it appears you use Sagarin's strenght of schedule (SOS) to determing if to lower or increase the the YPPT.
What are you going to do when more games have been played?
Are you going to continue to use overall stats?
Teams get hot, teams get cold, and that needs to be considered.
Again, great stuff you have here. I may tweaked the system myself to see how it does.
0
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:
10/12/09
Jets vs. Dolphins
I'm going to try to explain the math here so bear with me and feel free to ask questions.
The end part of the process is pure common sense. 16 PTS. can only happen 3 ways (commonly) which are all unlikely given that the Jets are only projected for 270 YDS. (2 TDs + 2PT con., a safety, or 3 FG's.) That being said 14 is more likely.
Projected Score
NY Jets 14
Miami 17
GL
Interesting approach you have here. I love systems, even the crazy ones.
The most important factor here is tha YPPT (Yards Per Points), and it appears you use Sagarin's strenght of schedule (SOS) to determing if to lower or increase the the YPPT.
What are you going to do when more games have been played?
Are you going to continue to use overall stats?
Teams get hot, teams get cold, and that needs to be considered.
Again, great stuff you have here. I may tweaked the system myself to see how it does.
The end part of the process is pure common sense. 16 PTS. can only happen 3 ways (commonly) which are all unlikely given that the Jets are only projected for 270 YDS. (2 TDs + 2PT con., a safety, or 3 FG's.) That being said 14 is more likely.
Projected Score
NY Jets 14
Miami 17
GL
I have a program that does these calulation for me, not quite like yours is but mine came to a score of:
Miami-20
Jets- 17.9
BOL to you
0
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:
10/12/09
Jets vs. Dolphins
I'm going to try to explain the math here so bear with me and feel free to ask questions.
The end part of the process is pure common sense. 16 PTS. can only happen 3 ways (commonly) which are all unlikely given that the Jets are only projected for 270 YDS. (2 TDs + 2PT con., a safety, or 3 FG's.) That being said 14 is more likely.
Projected Score
NY Jets 14
Miami 17
GL
I have a program that does these calulation for me, not quite like yours is but mine came to a score of:
It's a fact that special teams are equally important to the offense/defense when capping any game. How is this variable calculated in? I can see all factors w/ how far offense needs to go vs defense, strength of shcedule etc. but how does it account for a team's strength in kicking game/ coverage teams etc. This is my only issue w/ it but so far can't argue your success, just wondering. BOL w/ it
0
It's a fact that special teams are equally important to the offense/defense when capping any game. How is this variable calculated in? I can see all factors w/ how far offense needs to go vs defense, strength of shcedule etc. but how does it account for a team's strength in kicking game/ coverage teams etc. This is my only issue w/ it but so far can't argue your success, just wondering. BOL w/ it
It's a fact that special teams are equally important to the offense/defense when capping any game. How is this variable calculated in? I can see all factors w/ how far offense needs to go vs defense, strength of shcedule etc. but how does it account for a team's strength in kicking game/ coverage teams etc. This is my only issue w/ it but so far can't argue your success, just wondering. BOL w/ it
The most accurate way, IMO, to calculate YPPT (Yards per point) is to calculate how teams gain yards vs TRUE scoring (and I mean, exclude interceptions return for TD, punt return for TD, block FG/Punt return for TD, kickoff return for TD, safeties, fumble return for TD)
Any scoring that is NOT when a team starts a drive to try to score.
For example,
In the game with Eagles at Panthers in Week 1, final score was Eagles 38 - Panthers 10.
Eagles gained a total of only 287 yards (185 passing + 102 rushing), yet it scored 38 points for an astonishing 7.55 YPPT.
That's not the true scoring, anyway.
Eagles scored 14 points off Carolina turnovers (and I don't mean, Carolina turned the ball over, and Eagles started to drive to endzone).
They scored with:
- Fumble return for TD - Punt Return for TD
So, their TRUE YPPT is 287 yards / 24 points = 11.96 YPPT
But this system looks really good.
Keep up the good work.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Splooge:
It's a fact that special teams are equally important to the offense/defense when capping any game. How is this variable calculated in? I can see all factors w/ how far offense needs to go vs defense, strength of shcedule etc. but how does it account for a team's strength in kicking game/ coverage teams etc. This is my only issue w/ it but so far can't argue your success, just wondering. BOL w/ it
The most accurate way, IMO, to calculate YPPT (Yards per point) is to calculate how teams gain yards vs TRUE scoring (and I mean, exclude interceptions return for TD, punt return for TD, block FG/Punt return for TD, kickoff return for TD, safeties, fumble return for TD)
Any scoring that is NOT when a team starts a drive to try to score.
For example,
In the game with Eagles at Panthers in Week 1, final score was Eagles 38 - Panthers 10.
Eagles gained a total of only 287 yards (185 passing + 102 rushing), yet it scored 38 points for an astonishing 7.55 YPPT.
That's not the true scoring, anyway.
Eagles scored 14 points off Carolina turnovers (and I don't mean, Carolina turned the ball over, and Eagles started to drive to endzone).
They scored with:
- Fumble return for TD - Punt Return for TD
So, their TRUE YPPT is 287 yards / 24 points = 11.96 YPPT
hey roughshod31, thanks for posting game prediction. I am a little confuse on how you came up with Miami 18.8 for YPPT, I try plugging your numbers based on your example above and came up with 15.6 for Miami.
should Miami yppt be calculated using 15.9 and 17.3 off 19.5 and 15.1 def
0
hey roughshod31, thanks for posting game prediction. I am a little confuse on how you came up with Miami 18.8 for YPPT, I try plugging your numbers based on your example above and came up with 15.6 for Miami.
should Miami yppt be calculated using 15.9 and 17.3 off 19.5 and 15.1 def
I still struggle with the DOUBLE Negatives as well as positives. MY thought is w/Jets & Dolphins -67.9 & -20.1 you would split the difference -47.8/2 = -23.9. (202.6 - 23.9 = 178.7 x .980 = 175.1). And yeah no HF advantage bc I have yet to find an effective means to date.
0
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:
lou
I still struggle with the DOUBLE Negatives as well as positives. MY thought is w/Jets & Dolphins -67.9 & -20.1 you would split the difference -47.8/2 = -23.9. (202.6 - 23.9 = 178.7 x .980 = 175.1). And yeah no HF advantage bc I have yet to find an effective means to date.
I still struggle with the DOUBLE Negatives as well as positives. MY thought is w/Jets & Dolphins -67.9 & -20.1 you would split the difference -47.8/2 = -23.9. (202.6 - 23.9 = 178.7 x .980 = 175.1). And yeah no HF advantage bc I have yet to find an effective means to date.
Thanks for clearing that up about the double negatives. I thought since we add the positives together and then divide by 2 we would add all the negatives and divide by 2 since there all on the negative side. I know we subtract one from the other when one is a positive and one a negative. Thanks for clearing up the HFA also!
0
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:
lou
I still struggle with the DOUBLE Negatives as well as positives. MY thought is w/Jets & Dolphins -67.9 & -20.1 you would split the difference -47.8/2 = -23.9. (202.6 - 23.9 = 178.7 x .980 = 175.1). And yeah no HF advantage bc I have yet to find an effective means to date.
Thanks for clearing that up about the double negatives. I thought since we add the positives together and then divide by 2 we would add all the negatives and divide by 2 since there all on the negative side. I know we subtract one from the other when one is a positive and one a negative. Thanks for clearing up the HFA also!
Check out an iPhone app called iBet Football.4 for 4 on it's best bets
yesterday.7 dollar version downloads team stats(Games,Yards,Points-for and against,-W-L Streek,Turnover dif) Was sceptical at first but so far has been on the money.Of course you haver factor injuries,buy weeks,revenge,weather,coaching in yourself.
0
Check out an iPhone app called iBet Football.4 for 4 on it's best bets
yesterday.7 dollar version downloads team stats(Games,Yards,Points-for and against,-W-L Streek,Turnover dif) Was sceptical at first but so far has been on the money.Of course you haver factor injuries,buy weeks,revenge,weather,coaching in yourself.
I think you were correct with your Jets calculation earlier making the Jets 155P not 175P which changes their projected score to 15.1. Thankyou for catching my error as sometimes the number crunching becomes mindnumbing.
Thanks Again
0
lou
I think you were correct with your Jets calculation earlier making the Jets 155P not 175P which changes their projected score to 15.1. Thankyou for catching my error as sometimes the number crunching becomes mindnumbing.
I've used methods like this before, and one thing i noticed is that the way you calculate the Miami pass yards is off from what I've used/read about in the past.
Miami Off vs Def Avg (-67.2) + Jets Def Pass vs Off Avg (-70.2) /2 = -68.7
So for Miami Pass you would get 157.5 + (-68.7) = 89.15.
Could you explain why you are subtracting in the second equation? From my perspective, Miami's offensive pass numbers vs. their opposing defensive average is negative or worse by 67.2 yards. The jets defensive pass yards vs the opposing offensive pass aveage is also negative, meaning they are better by 70.2 yards. Since the Jets D performs better by 70.2 yards vs opposition average and the Fins Offense is worse by 67.2 yards, these numbers should be added together and divided by 2, not subtracted. This is the way I've read about and it seems to make sense logically as well. Let me know what you think.
0
I've used methods like this before, and one thing i noticed is that the way you calculate the Miami pass yards is off from what I've used/read about in the past.
Miami Off vs Def Avg (-67.2) + Jets Def Pass vs Off Avg (-70.2) /2 = -68.7
So for Miami Pass you would get 157.5 + (-68.7) = 89.15.
Could you explain why you are subtracting in the second equation? From my perspective, Miami's offensive pass numbers vs. their opposing defensive average is negative or worse by 67.2 yards. The jets defensive pass yards vs the opposing offensive pass aveage is also negative, meaning they are better by 70.2 yards. Since the Jets D performs better by 70.2 yards vs opposition average and the Fins Offense is worse by 67.2 yards, these numbers should be added together and divided by 2, not subtracted. This is the way I've read about and it seems to make sense logically as well. Let me know what you think.
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