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New YPPT Method

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Posted: #76

Eccocide

 You were exactly right I recalculated my Formula for tonights game and came up with the following.

NY Jets         249 Total YDS        16.5 YPPT             15.1

Miami            260 Total YDS        18.8 YPPT              13.8

I don't know what I was thinking earlier thankyou for calling me out on it.

GL


 
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Posted: #77
roughshod, you mind doing some of this for the college football games tomorrow?
 
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Posted: #78

[Quote: Originally Posted by nhanweezy] roughshod, you mind doing some of this for the college football games tomorrow?

Will do a few each day.


 
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Posted: #79
YOU ARE THE MAN
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

Eccocide

 You were exactly right I recalculated my Formula for tonights game and came up with the following.

NY Jets         249 Total YDS        16.5 YPPT             15.1

Miami            260 Total YDS        18.8 YPPT              13.8

I don't know what I was thinking earlier thankyou for calling me out on it.

GL


This is pretty much what  I got too:

NY Jets  250.1 Total Yds.   16.5 YPPT     15.2 Pts.

Miami    252.2  Total Yds.   18.8 YPPT     13.4 Pts.

I rounded up on the Jets to make it  NYJ 16, Mia 13

 
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Posted: #81
I use the Dudley Yards Per Point Method by Art Glantz also. I just have one question here. How do you get the 10.9 from the 321.5 ?   thanks  
 
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Posted: #82
 Great system man,appreciate all your hard efforts in bringing a formula that for now appears to be right on target! Have a great week.
 
 
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Posted: #83
[Quote: Originally Posted by Daddy_Freddie]
I use the Dudley Yards Per Point Method by Art Glantz also. I just have one question here. How do you get the 10.9 from the 321.5 ?   thanks  

DF,

I am assuming the 321.5 are total yards and the 10.9 is yards per point. 

321.5/10.9 = 29.5 pts.

Hope this helps.

 

 

 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by Gator11:

 Great system man,appreciate all your hard efforts in bringing a formula that for now appears to be right on target! Have a great week.
 

Yes roughshod,

We all appreciate you sharing this with us!  For the first time in too many years, I am looking forward to math problems!

 

 
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Posted: #85
Excellent thread roughshod,
 In the last 2 or 3 years I've been studying YPP and using it in my handicapping.  First your doing too much work, if you go to the stats page on thegreek, bodog, betus or even my site click on matchups and scroll down to the bottom right where you see "powerstats".  The YPP's are already calculated, so you don't have to look up yards. 

The YPP stat was discovered by Jack Painter and Jim Barnes in the early 80's.  They published it in their weekly called "the journal of handicapping"  I was able to get my hands on some of these old publications and there is one where they discuss adding kick off and punt return.  Apparently O/D yards only covers about 70% of the game. 

I created an excel sheet that takes the YPP stats and draws a percentage of who is better, this is the alternative to the way you're doing it.  I also use SOS from Sagarin ratings.   Either way I think the results should come out pretty similar. 

YPP is very accurate but without a way to use SOS, especially in College ball it can be misleading.   I'm going to take your calculations and create an excel sheet with them so you can get results for the games much quicker.  With a spreadsheet you should be able to do all the NFL and NCAA games in less than 2 hours. 

Also, I've published articles on my site about using this stat, and getting more accuracy out of it.  One thing that I mention is using Conference or Division games only, because these are games where you know the team is going to try to play their best. 
 
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Posted: #86

10/13/09

Arkansas State @ Louisiana Monroe

Ark St.       151 (R)     252 (P)        403 (TYDS)       11.4 YPPT

LA Monroe  163 (R)     261 (P)        426 (TYDS)       15.2 YPPT

Projected Score

Arkansas St.      35

LA Monroe         28

PLAY: Arkansas St. + 2.5

I modified the formula, making it so now I just split the difference on double negatives & positives. The reason being that if Team A rushes for 35 YDS less than opponents def. avg. & Team B allows 25 YDS less than opp. off. avg, I don't see it being likely that Team A will rush for 60 YDS less than their normal avg. ( I think splitting the difference making it -30 is much more likely in these cases.)

GL 

 
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Careful.  Covers don't like people like us.
 
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Posted: #88
interesting
 
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Posted: #89
sharkysden, will you be willing to share the spreadsheet when you have finished it?  Thanks.
 
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Posted: #90
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

10/13/09

Arkansas State @ Louisiana Monroe

Ark St.       151 (R)     252 (P)        403 (TYDS)       11.4 YPPT

LA Monroe  163 (R)     261 (P)        426 (TYDS)       15.2 YPPT

Projected Score

Arkansas St.      35

LA Monroe         28

PLAY: Arkansas St. + 2.5

I modified the formula, making it so now I just split the difference on double negatives & positives. The reason being that if Team A rushes for 35 YDS less than opponents def. avg. & Team B allows 25 YDS less than opp. off. avg, I don't see it being likely that Team A will rush for 60 YDS less than their normal avg. ( I think splitting the difference making it -30 is much more likely in these cases.)

GL 



Not sure how your getting these numbers.  In my spreadsheet i got

Ark             134R           252P         Tot  386            11.07YPPT
LAM           178R           290P          Tot 468             11.93YPPT

Any idea why my Passing yards are so high for LAM and why my YPPT is so low for LAM?


 
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Posted: #91
here is the data im using.  Please Help...



 
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Posted: #92
Team A (Off All Games)        162.7    180    11.6
opp. Def. AVG                      185.1    182.9  13.2
Team B Def All Games           110.2   268.    12.1
Opp Off  Avg.                         103.9   231.3   13.8
Team B (Off All Games)          208.6   210     12.5
opp. Def. AVG                       173      205.8    12.5
Team A Def All Games           106      266.5    16.2
Opp Off  Avg.                         114.5  192.5    14.6

Sorry didnot post correctly
 
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Posted: #93
roughshod
 
where is the best place to get passing and rushing yards for and against?  It seems like covers has different # from NFL.com - also do you keep a rolling average per week and use the past 4-5 weeks or season to date as the season progresses?
 
thanks
 
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Posted: #94

When will you come out with this weekend's NFL games?  I will try to replicate your system so I won't have to continue looking for your posts!!

Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

Eccocide

 You were exactly right I recalculated my Formula for tonights game and came up with the following.

NY Jets         249 Total YDS        16.5 YPPT             15.1

Miami            260 Total YDS        18.8 YPPT              13.8

I don't know what I was thinking earlier thankyou for calling me out on it.

GL


 
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Posted: #95
I got different numbers than both of you from my spreadsheet I put together last night.  this is what I came up with

SAS              rushing     passing   Total       YPPT       SAS
ark state        134.26      252.11     386.38    9.734        62.35
UL monroe     163.04      264.72     427.77    15.84        68.32

projected score
40
27

did I do something wrong on my calculation?
Quote Originally Posted by Pegasus21:

Team A (Off All Games)        162.7    180    11.6
opp. Def. AVG                      185.1    182.9  13.2
Team B Def All Games           110.2   268.    12.1
Opp Off  Avg.                         103.9   231.3   13.8
Team B (Off All Games)          208.6   210     12.5
opp. Def. AVG                       173      205.8    12.5
Team A Def All Games           106      266.5    16.2
Opp Off  Avg.                         114.5  192.5    14.6

Sorry didnot post correctly
 
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Posted: #96
Sorry guy's I've been pulling my hair out all morning trying to figure this shit out.  It might take me some time to format this into a spreadsheet, plus I think I'm retarded because I'm still not fully understanding the calculations. 

When I do get this all into format, I will send it to roughshod first and let him review it, then basically it's up to hm if he wants it distributed.  I have no problem posting it somewhere for download if I can find a spot for it.  But, I think it should be roughshods decision since this is his work. 
 
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Posted: #97
let me make sure I'm doing YPPT correctly.

this is the calculation on my spread sheet

(yppt off ark st + yppt def monroe)/2 + (difference of yppt ark st off+difference of yppt ark st. allow)/2 and then multiply by SAS def/off

so in my spreadsheet, it should be
((11.6+12.1)/2 + (11.6-13.2 + 12.1-13.8)/2) * 0.954
or (11.85 - 1.65) * 0.954 = 9.73

am i doing it wrong?
 
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Posted: #98
I already made a spreadsheet based on roughshods example.  Assuming my calculations are right, I can email it to him and have him look at it.  from there, he can distributed it he likes.
 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by skan:



I believe you have your SAS backwards for the two teams. 
 
 
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Posted: #100

Is there any way I can download these statistics into excel so I can link the data into my spreadsheet.  I would like to copy and paste these numbers into my spaces for each game/same cell every week.

 

Quote Originally Posted by Pegasus21:



I believe you have your SAS backwards for the two teams. 

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