Excellent thread roughshod, In the last 2 or 3 years I've been studying YPP and using it in my handicapping. First your doing too much work, if you go to the stats page on thegreek, bodog, betus or even my site click on matchups and scroll down to the bottom right where you see "powerstats". The YPP's are already calculated, so you don't have to look up yards.
The YPP stat was discovered by Jack Painter and Jim Barnes in the early 80's. They published it in their weekly called "the journal of handicapping" I was able to get my hands on some of these old publications and there is one where they discuss adding kick off and punt return. Apparently O/D yards only covers about 70% of the game.
I created an excel sheet that takes the YPP stats and draws a percentage of who is better, this is the alternative to the way you're doing it. I also use SOS from Sagarin ratings. Either way I think the results should come out pretty similar.
YPP is very accurate but without a way to use SOS, especially in College ball it can be misleading. I'm going to take your calculations and create an excel sheet with them so you can get results for the games much quicker. With a spreadsheet you should be able to do all the NFL and NCAA games in less than 2 hours.
Also, I've published articles on my site about using this stat, and getting more accuracy out of it. One thing that I mention is using Conference or Division games only, because these are games where you know the team is going to try to play their best.
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Excellent thread roughshod, In the last 2 or 3 years I've been studying YPP and using it in my handicapping. First your doing too much work, if you go to the stats page on thegreek, bodog, betus or even my site click on matchups and scroll down to the bottom right where you see "powerstats". The YPP's are already calculated, so you don't have to look up yards.
The YPP stat was discovered by Jack Painter and Jim Barnes in the early 80's. They published it in their weekly called "the journal of handicapping" I was able to get my hands on some of these old publications and there is one where they discuss adding kick off and punt return. Apparently O/D yards only covers about 70% of the game.
I created an excel sheet that takes the YPP stats and draws a percentage of who is better, this is the alternative to the way you're doing it. I also use SOS from Sagarin ratings. Either way I think the results should come out pretty similar.
YPP is very accurate but without a way to use SOS, especially in College ball it can be misleading. I'm going to take your calculations and create an excel sheet with them so you can get results for the games much quicker. With a spreadsheet you should be able to do all the NFL and NCAA games in less than 2 hours.
Also, I've published articles on my site about using this stat, and getting more accuracy out of it. One thing that I mention is using Conference or Division games only, because these are games where you know the team is going to try to play their best.
I modified the formula, making it so now I just split the difference on double negatives & positives. The reason being that if Team A rushes for 35 YDS less than opponents def. avg. & Team B allows 25 YDS less than opp. off. avg, I don't see it being likely that Team A will rush for 60 YDS less than their normal avg. ( I think splitting the difference making it -30 is much more likely in these cases.)
GL
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10/13/09
Arkansas State @ Louisiana Monroe
Ark St. 151 (R) 252 (P) 403 (TYDS) 11.4 YPPT
LA Monroe 163 (R) 261 (P) 426 (TYDS) 15.2 YPPT
Projected Score
Arkansas St. 35
LA Monroe 28
PLAY: Arkansas St. + 2.5
I modified the formula, making it so now I just split the difference on double negatives & positives. The reason being that if Team A rushes for 35 YDS less than opponents def. avg. & Team B allows 25 YDS less than opp. off. avg, I don't see it being likely that Team A will rush for 60 YDS less than their normal avg. ( I think splitting the difference making it -30 is much more likely in these cases.)
I modified the formula, making it so now I just split the difference on double negatives & positives. The reason being that if Team A rushes for 35 YDS less than opponents def. avg. & Team B allows 25 YDS less than opp. off. avg, I don't see it being likely that Team A will rush for 60 YDS less than their normal avg. ( I think splitting the difference making it -30 is much more likely in these cases.)
GL
Not sure how your getting these numbers. In my spreadsheet i got
Ark 134R 252P Tot 386 11.07YPPT LAM 178R 290P Tot 468 11.93YPPT
Any idea why my Passing yards are so high for LAM and why my YPPT is so low for LAM?
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Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:
10/13/09
Arkansas State @ Louisiana Monroe
Ark St. 151 (R) 252 (P) 403 (TYDS) 11.4 YPPT
LA Monroe 163 (R) 261 (P) 426 (TYDS) 15.2 YPPT
Projected Score
Arkansas St. 35
LA Monroe 28
PLAY: Arkansas St. + 2.5
I modified the formula, making it so now I just split the difference on double negatives & positives. The reason being that if Team A rushes for 35 YDS less than opponents def. avg. & Team B allows 25 YDS less than opp. off. avg, I don't see it being likely that Team A will rush for 60 YDS less than their normal avg. ( I think splitting the difference making it -30 is much more likely in these cases.)
GL
Not sure how your getting these numbers. In my spreadsheet i got
Ark 134R 252P Tot 386 11.07YPPT LAM 178R 290P Tot 468 11.93YPPT
Any idea why my Passing yards are so high for LAM and why my YPPT is so low for LAM?
Team A (Off All Games) 162.7 180 11.6 opp. Def. AVG 185.1 182.9 13.2 Team B Def All Games 110.2 268. 12.1 Opp Off Avg. 103.9 231.3 13.8 Team B (Off All Games) 208.6 210 12.5 opp. Def. AVG 173 205.8 12.5 Team A Def All Games 106 266.5 16.2
Opp Off Avg. 114.5 192.5 14.6
Sorry didnot post correctly
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Team A (Off All Games) 162.7 180 11.6 opp. Def. AVG 185.1 182.9 13.2 Team B Def All Games 110.2 268. 12.1 Opp Off Avg. 103.9 231.3 13.8 Team B (Off All Games) 208.6 210 12.5 opp. Def. AVG 173 205.8 12.5 Team A Def All Games 106 266.5 16.2
Opp Off Avg. 114.5 192.5 14.6
where is the best place to get passing and rushing yards for and against? It seems like covers has different # from NFL.com - also do you keep a rolling average per week and use the past 4-5 weeks or season to date as the season progresses?
thanks
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roughshod
where is the best place to get passing and rushing yards for and against? It seems like covers has different # from NFL.com - also do you keep a rolling average per week and use the past 4-5 weeks or season to date as the season progresses?
I got different numbers than both of you from my spreadsheet I put together last night. this is what I came up with
SAS rushing passing Total YPPT SAS ark state 134.26 252.11 386.38 9.734 62.35 UL monroe 163.04 264.72 427.77 15.84 68.32
projected score 40 27
did I do something wrong on my calculation?
Quote Originally Posted by Pegasus21:
Team A (Off All Games) 162.7 180 11.6 opp. Def. AVG 185.1 182.9 13.2 Team B Def All Games 110.2 268. 12.1 Opp Off Avg. 103.9 231.3 13.8 Team B (Off All Games) 208.6 210 12.5 opp. Def. AVG 173 205.8 12.5 Team A Def All Games 106 266.5 16.2
Opp Off Avg. 114.5 192.5 14.6
Sorry didnot post correctly
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I got different numbers than both of you from my spreadsheet I put together last night. this is what I came up with
SAS rushing passing Total YPPT SAS ark state 134.26 252.11 386.38 9.734 62.35 UL monroe 163.04 264.72 427.77 15.84 68.32
projected score 40 27
did I do something wrong on my calculation?
Quote Originally Posted by Pegasus21:
Team A (Off All Games) 162.7 180 11.6 opp. Def. AVG 185.1 182.9 13.2 Team B Def All Games 110.2 268. 12.1 Opp Off Avg. 103.9 231.3 13.8 Team B (Off All Games) 208.6 210 12.5 opp. Def. AVG 173 205.8 12.5 Team A Def All Games 106 266.5 16.2
Opp Off Avg. 114.5 192.5 14.6
Sorry guy's I've been pulling my hair out all morning trying to figure this shit out. It might take me some time to format this into a spreadsheet, plus I think I'm retarded because I'm still not fully understanding the calculations.
When I do get this all into format, I will send it to roughshod first and let him review it, then basically it's up to hm if he wants it distributed. I have no problem posting it somewhere for download if I can find a spot for it. But, I think it should be roughshods decision since this is his work.
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Sorry guy's I've been pulling my hair out all morning trying to figure this shit out. It might take me some time to format this into a spreadsheet, plus I think I'm retarded because I'm still not fully understanding the calculations.
When I do get this all into format, I will send it to roughshod first and let him review it, then basically it's up to hm if he wants it distributed. I have no problem posting it somewhere for download if I can find a spot for it. But, I think it should be roughshods decision since this is his work.
I already made a spreadsheet based on roughshods example. Assuming my calculations are right, I can email it to him and have him look at it. from there, he can distributed it he likes.
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I already made a spreadsheet based on roughshods example. Assuming my calculations are right, I can email it to him and have him look at it. from there, he can distributed it he likes.
Is there any way I can download these statistics into excel so I can link the data into my spreadsheet. I would like to copy and paste these numbers into my spaces for each game/same cell every week.
Quote Originally Posted by Pegasus21:
I believe you have your SAS backwards for the two teams.
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Is there any way I can download these statistics into excel so I can link the data into my spreadsheet. I would like to copy and paste these numbers into my spaces for each game/same cell every week.
Quote Originally Posted by Pegasus21:
I believe you have your SAS backwards for the two teams.
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