All Forums | Systems & Strategies

New YPPT Method

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 253696
Posts: 1286
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #126

skan

I will explain using LA Monroes (P) vs Ark.St. (P) Def.

 LAM      210.0 (P)          (+4.2)                                                          Ark. St.  266.5 (P) DEF.  (+74.1)

210.0 + 266.5 = 476.5/ 2 =238.3

74.1 - 4.2 = 69.9/2 = 35.0 + 238.3 = 273.3 x .954 SOS = 260.7 (P)

GL

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 825
Posted: #127
Hey sorry I'm new to this method of capping. I saw in your NFL Exampmle, the Number in the bracket was the difference between Jets offense and Opp Allowed which was 31.1. I've been checking out the Arkansas state example, and I cant figure out where the (-22.4) is coming from on the Ark St. Offense Rushing? I feel like a moron because I can't figure out what I am missing. Can anyone point to me where that number comes from?
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 825
Posted: #128
 that example you just showed. Where does the (+4.2) and (+74.1) come from? I cant find where those numbers are coming from. I understand the rest of the arithmetic though, and how they all come together.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2003
Posts: 3722
Posted: #129
Quote Originally Posted by Pegasus21:

well now my numbers match up with Roughshods numbers..  Haha. this shit is getting confusing and im an engineer.


I feel better now, because earlier I thought all my brain cells exploded. 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 680
Posted: #130

Rob

The (+4.2) & (+74.1) are the number of yards over their opponents avg. allowed (210.0 vs. 205.8).

Hope this helps

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 825
Posted: #131
Okay, thats where I thought it came from. That is what logically makes sense, but for some reason I'm not finding the 205.8 on the stats? Not sure how I am missing it.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 7
Posted: #132
IMO, from how I've used this in the past, you are not supposed subtract double negatives or positives. For this game's example, Arkansas State was 1.6 YPPT better than the defensive opposition average (ie -1.6) and ULM was 1.7 YPPT worse than the offensive opposition average (ie -1.7). Therefore, these results should be added together not subtracted. You have to think of it from a logical perspective. If Arkansas State's offense has performed better than the average and ULM defense has performed worse than the average. the net results should bring down or benefit Arkansas States YPPT. By subtracted or splitting the difference as you put it, you are discounting the advantage.
 
Another way to put it - If Team A averages 100 yards more than the opposing defense lets up, and Team B gives up 100 more than the opposing offense averages, you shouldnt be subtracting these to get a 0 balance. They should be added together and averaged. Now if Team A averages 100 less and Team B gives up a 100 more, than you should get a 0 balance....im rambling but I hope this makes sense to you.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 20
Posted: #133
amazing results can't wait til next week
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 14
Posted: #134

roughshod31...

for the jets/dolpins YYPT

NY Jets 20.91 (.980)     (20.91/21.34 = .980)...is the 20.91 is the RATING and 21.34 is the SCHEDULE from the SAGARIN'S? thamks

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 110
Posted: #135
well that wasnt the result with with ark st........

maybe it's much harder with college football since the level of competition each week is totally different..
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 8152
Posted: #136
wow a system i've waited a lifetime for  
 
thanks for the OVER and ARK ST -2.5 picks tonight.........
i really think you need to reinvent the calculator
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 110
Posted: #137
Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

wow a system i've waited a lifetime for  
 
thanks for the OVER and ARK ST -2.5 picks tonight.........
i really think you need to reinvent the calculator


not everything is 100% guaranteed.... but so far, the NFL picks were dead on..
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 557
Posted: #138
Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

wow a system i've waited a lifetime for  
 
thanks for the OVER and ARK ST -2.5 picks tonight.........
i really think you need to reinvent the calculator


My god you're lame.  No one put a gun to your head.  Bottom line YOU made the bet.  As you can see OVERALL the system has been doing pretty well.  Rough has put a lot of work in to this and has been nice enough to share it with us.  Why don't you come back when you have a system that wins.  K thanks.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 14
Posted: #139
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

Strength of Schedule (SOS) (Using Sagarin Ratings, see USA TODAY)

NY Jets 20.91 (.980)     (20.91/21.34 = .980)Repeat for MIA.

Miami    21.76 (1.020)   (20.91 + 21.76 = 42.67/2 = 21.34)

NY Jets 20.91 (.980)     (20.91/21.34 = .980)...is the 20.91 is the RATING and 21.34 is the SCHEDULE from the SAGARIN'S? thamks

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 195
Posted: #140
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 25
Posted: #141
Quote Originally Posted by skan:



got exactly the same (except that you (skan) double mistaked with SOS (input and calculation) so in the end you have right numbers - imo).

now i'll have to tweak formulas a bit as roughshod31 said.

interesting stuff, will see how it works :)
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 8369
Posted: #142
Never really played a system before. Confusing as fuck, I must say.
 
However, I would like to add a system to my capping ritual.
 
This is going to take a while to learn, and now is not the time for me as I have to get some sleep!
 
Added to Favorites.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 60
Posted: #143
Quote Originally Posted by Eccocide:

IMO, from how I've used this in the past, you are not supposed subtract double negatives or positives. For this game's example, Arkansas State was 1.6 YPPT better than the defensive opposition average (ie -1.6) and ULM was 1.7 YPPT worse than the offensive opposition average (ie -1.7). Therefore, these results should be added together not subtracted. You have to think of it from a logical perspective. If Arkansas State's offense has performed better than the average and ULM defense has performed worse than the average. the net results should bring down or benefit Arkansas States YPPT. By subtracted or splitting the difference as you put it, you are discounting the advantage.
 
Another way to put it - If Team A averages 100 yards more than the opposing defense lets up, and Team B gives up 100 more than the opposing offense averages, you shouldnt be subtracting these to get a 0 balance. They should be added together and averaged. Now if Team A averages 100 less and Team B gives up a 100 more, than you should get a 0 balance....im rambling but I hope this makes sense to you.

 

I agree somewhat with what your saying.  If team A has 100 rushing yds gained more than there opponent and team B allows 100 yds more than opponents gained I don't think they should just be subtracted from each other.  Doing that is basically treating it and one positive and one negative.  A team should be rewarded if that's the case for a double positve.  However, as roughshod says, maybe a double negative or positive is too extreme?  Maybe you add up the double negative or positives and divide by 3 instead of 2?  Just a thought. 

 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2001
Posts: 41899
Posted: #144
Quote Originally Posted by Eccocide:

IMO, from how I've used this in the past, you are not supposed subtract double negatives or positives. For this game's example, Arkansas State was 1.6 YPPT better than the defensive opposition average (ie -1.6) and ULM was 1.7 YPPT worse than the offensive opposition average (ie -1.7). Therefore, these results should be added together not subtracted. You have to think of it from a logical perspective. If Arkansas State's offense has performed better than the average and ULM defense has performed worse than the average. the net results should bring down or benefit Arkansas States YPPT. By subtracted or splitting the difference as you put it, you are discounting the advantage.
 
Another way to put it - If Team A averages 100 yards more than the opposing defense lets up, and Team B gives up 100 more than the opposing offense averages, you shouldnt be subtracting these to get a 0 balance. They should be added together and averaged. Now if Team A averages 100 less and Team B gives up a 100 more, than you should get a 0 balance....im rambling but I hope this makes sense to you.

This is the correct way to calculate this. Any other way is incorrect.

I've been thinking about this system, and this is where I think is issue.

He is using Sagarin's ratings (Strenght of schedule) to calculate the adjusted final yards (rush and pass) and YPPT.

He compasates teams that have played the best schedule and penalize teams that have played worst.

I just did some calculations where Cleveland (n#1 Sagarin SOS with 24.45) plays NY Giants (n#32 Sagarin SOS 13.48)

Cleveland's adjusted yards is: 158 yards

After SOS is applied, Clevaland's final adjusted yards becomes 203.67 (and this is just they played the toughest scheduled).

Giants adjusted yards is: 463.03 yards

Since they have played the weakest scheduled, the final adjusted yards becomes: 329.21

The system has its flawed like any other. Besides when Saring updates his ratings, his SOS numbers don't change dramatically either.

FYI

 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2001
Posts: 41899
Posted: #145
compasates = compensates
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2001
Posts: 41899
Posted: #146
By the way, I am not criticizing system here. Just pointing out a few things.
 
Good stuff.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 14
Posted: #147
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

Here is all of the work for you people with excel. I will be trying  to learn how to use said program in the near future.

Ark.St.     SOS (68.32)  (1.046 Multiplier)

LA Monroe SOS (62.35)  (.954)                                                                   (68.32 + 62.35 = 130.67/2 = 65.34) (62.35/65.34 = .954)

Ark.St. (O)    162.7 (R)  (-22.4)    180.0 (P)  (-2.9)  11.6 YPPT   (-1.6)

LA Monroe (D) 110.2 (R) (+6.3)    268.2 (P)  (36.9) 12.2 YPPT   (-1.7)

Ark.St. (162.7 + 110.2 = 272.9/2 = 136.5)

            (-22.4 + 6.3 = -16.1/2 = -8.1)

            136.5 - 8.1 = 128.4 x 1.046 SOS = 134.3 (R)

           (180.0 + 268.2 = 448.2/2 = 224.1)

           (-2.9 + 36.9 = 34/2 = 17.0)

           224.1 + 17.0 = 241.1 x 1.046 = 252.2 (P)

           (11.6 + 12.1 = 23.7/2 = 11.9)

           ( 1.6 - 1.7 = -0.1/ 2 = -0.05  I left this alone)

            11.9 x .954 (LA Monroe's SOS) = 11.35 YPPT.

Ark.St.    134 (R)     252 (P)   386 TYDS    11.4 YPPT  ( 33.9)

REPEAT STEPS FOR LA MONROE & THERE YOU ARE.

GL

        May I ask you where did you get de (-22.4), (+6.3), etc.....thank you   

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 79
Posted: #148
roughshod31 got anything on tonights bosie/Tulsa game?
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2008
Posts: 825
Posted: #149
First attempt at this.  I'm getting Boise 42 Tulsa 28.
 
Seems kinda high though.....
 
Anyone else run this game?
 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 93
Posted: #150
33 - 14 is what I got
All Forums | Systems & Strategies
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.