I run a statistical model much like this for baseball. It is dealing w run per out.
The way I combat the above questions is to run the model for
1.) overall stats
2.) home/away stats - depending on if the team is home or away
3.) pitchers last 3 starts / hitting teams last 10 games
A line is creeated for all 3 using the same forula, but the stats oviously differ. An average of all 3 is taken and that is my overall line. The way in which i weight all 3 of the differnt lines is constantly changing in the way i feel it is most accurate. It is not an exact science is weighting these. I have an overall approach in how i like to weight them but like i said you can subjective change the weighting process how you feel has the most importance for that game.
I run a statistical model much like this for baseball. It is dealing w run per out.
The way I combat the above questions is to run the model for
1.) overall stats
2.) home/away stats - depending on if the team is home or away
3.) pitchers last 3 starts / hitting teams last 10 games
A line is creeated for all 3 using the same forula, but the stats oviously differ. An average of all 3 is taken and that is my overall line. The way in which i weight all 3 of the differnt lines is constantly changing in the way i feel it is most accurate. It is not an exact science is weighting these. I have an overall approach in how i like to weight them but like i said you can subjective change the weighting process how you feel has the most importance for that game.
I need to make a correction from my earlier post. LA Monroe's final YPPT should be 15.9 not 15.2 ( I forgot to multiply by Ark.St.'s SOS multiplier 15.2 x 1.046 = 15.89). This fix changes the projected score total to.
Arkansas State 35.4 (35)
LA Monroe 26.8 (27)
PLAY: Arkansas State + 2.5
GL
(Sorry I was'nt responding to posts this afternoon, I have Epilepsy & sometimes need to lay down for a few hours to avoid seizing.)
I need to make a correction from my earlier post. LA Monroe's final YPPT should be 15.9 not 15.2 ( I forgot to multiply by Ark.St.'s SOS multiplier 15.2 x 1.046 = 15.89). This fix changes the projected score total to.
Arkansas State 35.4 (35)
LA Monroe 26.8 (27)
PLAY: Arkansas State + 2.5
GL
(Sorry I was'nt responding to posts this afternoon, I have Epilepsy & sometimes need to lay down for a few hours to avoid seizing.)
Here is all of the work for you people with excel. I will be trying to learn how to use said program in the near future.
Ark.St. SOS (68.32) (1.046 Multiplier)
LA Monroe SOS (62.35) (.954) (68.32 + 62.35 = 130.67/2 = 65.34) (62.35/65.34 = .954)
Ark.St. (O) 162.7 (R) (-22.4) 180.0 (P) (-2.9) 11.6 YPPT (-1.6)
LA Monroe (D) 110.2 (R) (+6.3) 268.2 (P) (36.9) 12.2 YPPT (-1.7)
Ark.St. (162.7 + 110.2 = 272.9/2 = 136.5)
(-22.4 + 6.3 = -16.1/2 = -8.1)
136.5 - 8.1 = 128.4 x 1.046 SOS = 134.3 (R)
(180.0 + 268.2 = 448.2/2 = 224.1)
(-2.9 + 36.9 = 34/2 = 17.0)
224.1 + 17.0 = 241.1 x 1.046 = 252.2 (P)
(11.6 + 12.1 = 23.7/2 = 11.9)
( 1.6 - 1.7 = -0.1/ 2 = -0.05 I left this alone)
11.9 x .954 (LA Monroe's SOS) = 11.35 YPPT.
Ark.St. 134 (R) 252 (P) 386 TYDS 11.4 YPPT ( 33.9)
REPEAT STEPS FOR LA MONROE & THERE YOU ARE.
GL
Here is all of the work for you people with excel. I will be trying to learn how to use said program in the near future.
Ark.St. SOS (68.32) (1.046 Multiplier)
LA Monroe SOS (62.35) (.954) (68.32 + 62.35 = 130.67/2 = 65.34) (62.35/65.34 = .954)
Ark.St. (O) 162.7 (R) (-22.4) 180.0 (P) (-2.9) 11.6 YPPT (-1.6)
LA Monroe (D) 110.2 (R) (+6.3) 268.2 (P) (36.9) 12.2 YPPT (-1.7)
Ark.St. (162.7 + 110.2 = 272.9/2 = 136.5)
(-22.4 + 6.3 = -16.1/2 = -8.1)
136.5 - 8.1 = 128.4 x 1.046 SOS = 134.3 (R)
(180.0 + 268.2 = 448.2/2 = 224.1)
(-2.9 + 36.9 = 34/2 = 17.0)
224.1 + 17.0 = 241.1 x 1.046 = 252.2 (P)
(11.6 + 12.1 = 23.7/2 = 11.9)
( 1.6 - 1.7 = -0.1/ 2 = -0.05 I left this alone)
11.9 x .954 (LA Monroe's SOS) = 11.35 YPPT.
Ark.St. 134 (R) 252 (P) 386 TYDS 11.4 YPPT ( 33.9)
REPEAT STEPS FOR LA MONROE & THERE YOU ARE.
GL
I run a statistical model much like this for baseball. It is dealing w run per out.
The way I combat the above questions is to run the model for
1.) overall stats
2.) home/away stats - depending on if the team is home or away
3.) pitchers last 3 starts / hitting teams last 10 games
A line is creeated for all 3 using the same forula, but the stats oviously differ. An average of all 3 is taken and that is my overall line. The way in which i weight all 3 of the differnt lines is constantly changing in the way i feel it is most accurate. It is not an exact science is weighting these. I have an overall approach in how i like to weight them but like i said you can subjective change the weighting process how you feel has the most importance for that game.
Runs per out? Total runs/27?
I run a statistical model much like this for baseball. It is dealing w run per out.
The way I combat the above questions is to run the model for
1.) overall stats
2.) home/away stats - depending on if the team is home or away
3.) pitchers last 3 starts / hitting teams last 10 games
A line is creeated for all 3 using the same forula, but the stats oviously differ. An average of all 3 is taken and that is my overall line. The way in which i weight all 3 of the differnt lines is constantly changing in the way i feel it is most accurate. It is not an exact science is weighting these. I have an overall approach in how i like to weight them but like i said you can subjective change the weighting process how you feel has the most importance for that game.
Runs per out? Total runs/27?
skan
With double positives & double negatives I split the difference meaning (-1.7 - -1.6 = -0.1).
You multiply offensive teams stats using offenses SOS. & multiply YPPT using defenses SOS.
Hope this clears things up a little.
GL
skan
With double positives & double negatives I split the difference meaning (-1.7 - -1.6 = -0.1).
You multiply offensive teams stats using offenses SOS. & multiply YPPT using defenses SOS.
Hope this clears things up a little.
GL
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