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New YPPT Method

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Legend
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Posted: #176

These are the predictions based on the system for week 6 in NFL (bear in mind that statfox keeps inaccurate stats, your scores may be just a bit different by a point or two. I found more than 20+ errors with their stats, and I gave up. (confirmed with ESPN.com and NFL.com stats)

Kansas City 16, Washington 18
Houston 14, Cincinnati 38
Cleveland 12, Pittsburgh 21
Baltimore 26, Minnesota 31
St Louis 8, Jacksonville 26
NY Giants 14, New Orleans 51 (since Giants have the worst SOS according to Sagarin, they get penalized big time and New Orleans is compensated big time. This is one of the flaws of the system)
Carolina 20, Tampa Bay 16
Detroit 33, Green Bay 37
Philadelphia 24, Oakland 15
Arizona 17, Seattle 26
Buffalo 11, NY Jets 26
Tennesse 15, New England 31
Chicago 18, Atlanta 23
Denver 22, San Diego 12


Let me know if these scores and really different from your scores.

 
Rookie
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Posted: #177
We got back doored we'll have to try again tomorrow.
 
Legend
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Posted: #178
I made a mistake in the Giants/Saints game.

Somehow I gave Saints a 21.42 SOS, and Saints SOS is 18.42

So, the correct prediction is
 
Giants 17, New Orleans 44.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #179
I plopped tomorrow's game into my spreadsheet.
 
I get:
Cincinnati 17.6
South Florida 14.06
 
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Posted: #180

Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:

I made a mistake in the Giants/Saints game.

Somehow I gave Saints a 21.42 SOS, and Saints SOS is 18.42

So, the correct prediction is
 
Giants 17, New Orleans 44.

  This game will not be a blow out by either side, atleast I hope not.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #181
Quote Originally Posted by Eccocide:

I plopped tomorrow's game into my spreadsheet.
 
I get:
Cincinnati 17.6
South Florida 14.06

 

Sorry, South Florida 14.6

 
Prospect
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Posted: #182
I got the same score on my model.  17-14.  Under looks very good to me.  as for tonight's game, if it wasn't because of the fumble in 1st quarter and give momentum to Tulsa, the projected point should be correct.
I think I'm gonna play Under 48.5 large tomorrow night
 
Legend
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Posted: #183
Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

  This game will not be a blow out by either side, atleast I hope not.



I decided to calculate this game by hand using statfox stats (I am using same format roughshod31 used to calculate Boise State/Tulsa game. (Only thing I changed stats for Giants/Saints game)


Full Math Original Version:

NY Giants 13.48 (SOS)    .845

NO Saints 18.42 (SOS)     1.155

13.48 + 18.42 = 31.90 / 2 = 15.95

13.48 / 15.95 = .845 (Giants) 18.42 / 15.95 = 1.155 (Saints)

Giants (O)   160.4 (R) (+25.9)   257.0 (P) (+28.8)   13.8 YPPT (-1.6)

Saints  (D)   84.7   (R) (-30.9)    210.5 (P) (+6.0)     17.9 YPPT (+3.3)

NY Giants

160.4 - 30.9 = 129.5

84.7 + 25.9 = 110.6   

129.5 + 110.6 = 240.1 / 2 = 120.1 x .845 = 101.5 Rushing

257.0 + 6.0 = 263.0

210.5 + 28.8 = 239.3

263.0 + 239.3 = 502.3 / 2 = 251.2 x .845 = 212.3 Passing

313.8 Total Yds.

13.8 + 3.3 = 17.1

17.9 - 1.6 = 16.3

17.1 + 16.3 = 33.4 / 2 = 16.7 x 1.155 Saint's SOS = 19.3 YPPT

313.8 TYDS / 19.3 YPPT =  16.3 Projected Points


New Orleans Saints

166.2 + 0.0 = 166.2

105.8 + 46.4 = 152.2

166.2 + 152.2 = 318.4 / 2 = 159.2 x 1.155 = 183.9 Rushing

248.0 - 80.2 = 167.8

104.8 + 49.0 = 153.8

167.8 + 153.8 = 321.6 / 2 = 160.8 x 1.155 = 185.7 Passing

369.6 Total Yds

11.5 - 3.6 = 7.9

14.8 - 2 = 12.8

7.9 + 12.8 = 20.7 / 2 = 10.4 x .845 Giants SOS = 8.8 YPPT

369.6 TYDS / 8.8 YPPT = 42.0 Projected Points
 
Prospect
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Posted: #184
Hey VGPOP,
When I see a game that supposely have similar offense/defense matchup, I just set the SOS to 1 so no advantage between both teams.  Either way, I still get

Gaints 22.22
NO Saints 31
on a good note, I just heard that Eli will play very cautious against Saints on espn because of his foot.
 
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Posted: #185
Quote Originally Posted by skan:

Hey VGPOP,
When I see a game that supposely have similar offense/defense matchup, I just set the SOS to 1 so no advantage between both teams.  Either way, I still get

Gaints 22.22
NO Saints 31
on a good note, I just heard that Eli will play very cautious against Saints on espn because of his foot.


After seeing this thread I tried a different kind of formula incorporating Total Yards on offense and defense, kick return yards, giveaways/takeaways, SOS and Sagarin ratings.

All favorites are predicted to cover except for PIT, SD and WAS/KC was a push at 24-17 WAS.

As for the NO-NYG game I came up with something similar to what you did at have NO winning 30-23.

It's exciting to see what comes of it this week.  It's good that we share our findings and collaborate on this.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #186
hey roughshod if you could post all of the game predictions for NFL week 6 using your system i would really appreciate it. I am going to post a link to a great site that has service picks from pros and maybe you could use some information from them and see what games you pick agree with them. Thanks man the system is awesome!!!!

https://forum.sbrforum.com/service-plays/
(that is the forum with pros picks)
gl guys
 
Prospect
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Posted: #187
roughshod31 any chance you could post your football predictions by friday?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #188
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:



I decided to calculate this game by hand using statfox stats (I am using same format roughshod31 used to calculate Boise State/Tulsa game. (Only thing I changed stats for Giants/Saints game)


Full Math Original Version:

NY Giants 13.48 (SOS)    .845

NO Saints 18.42 (SOS)     1.155

13.48 + 18.42 = 31.90 / 2 = 15.95

13.48 / 15.95 = .845 (Giants) 18.42 / 15.95 = 1.155 (Saints)

Giants (O)   160.4 (R) (+25.9)   257.0 (P) (+28.8)   13.8 YPPT (-1.6)

Saints  (D)   84.7   (R) (-30.9)    210.5 (P) (+6.0)     17.9 YPPT (+3.3)

NY Giants

160.4 - 30.9 = 129.5

84.7 + 25.9 = 110.6   

129.5 + 110.6 = 240.1 / 2 = 120.1 x .845 = 101.5 Rushing

257.0 + 6.0 = 263.0

210.5 + 28.8 = 239.3

263.0 + 239.3 = 502.3 / 2 = 251.2 x .845 = 212.3 Passing

313.8 Total Yds.

13.8 + 3.3 = 17.1

17.9 - 1.6 = 16.3

17.1 + 16.3 = 33.4 / 2 = 16.7 x 1.155 Saint's SOS = 19.3 YPPT

313.8 TYDS / 19.3 YPPT =  16.3 Projected Points


New Orleans Saints

166.2 + 0.0 = 166.2

105.8 + 46.4 = 152.2

166.2 + 152.2 = 318.4 / 2 = 159.2 x 1.155 = 183.9 Rushing

248.0 - 80.2 = 167.8

104.8 + 49.0 = 153.8

167.8 + 153.8 = 321.6 / 2 = 160.8 x 1.155 = 185.7 Passing

369.6 Total Yds

11.5 - 3.6 = 7.9

14.8 - 2 = 12.8

7.9 + 12.8 = 20.7 / 2 = 10.4 x .845 Giants SOS = 8.8 YPPT

369.6 TYDS / 8.8 YPPT = 42.0 Projected Points

VGPOP..

how do u get the (+25.9) and (+28.8) for the GIANTS(O) in

Giants (O)   160.4 (R) (+25.9)   257.0 (P) (+28.8)   13.8 YPPT (-1.6)

Saints  (D)   84.7   (R) (-30.9)    210.5 (P) (+6.0)     17.9 YPPT (+3.3)????

thanks

 
Prospect
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Posted: #189
Quote Originally Posted by Eccocide:

I plopped tomorrow's game into my spreadsheet.
 
I get:
Cincinnati 17.6
South Florida 14.06

I got almost the same thing on my spread sheet-

Cincy 17.5

S FLA - 14.63

I assume we would be thinking under here.

Someone had asked earlier about accounting for HFA - could we change the SOS ranking for the Home team to account for HFA. Technically there is usually some more energy for the home team...just a thought - I really love this thing

 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #190
I like Under alot for tomorrow's game based on the projected scores but the only thing that concerns me to pull the trigger is the TO figures from both teams.  Both teams can create tremendous TO 8 for cinn and 7 for S. Fl.  I'm not sure how much that factor into the equation.  I hope after everything is said and done, it would cancel itself and each would only limit to only field goal scores.
 
Legend
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Posted: #191
Later today, I will create a formula in Excel to calculate ALL game based on Statfox stats.
 
The good thing about Excel is that the table statfox use to show stats for team, you can just COPY and PASTE SPECIAL (Unicode Code) in Excel and it will show exactly the same format as Statfox.
 
I can create a formula that when I paste the table for each team stats, it shows already all the stats that I need (instead of me writing every single number in each Excel cell, that's just a waste of time). You have a formula that can calculate to the correspondent cell in the table, you just need Sagarin's SOS number, put those two numbers (Road team SOS, Home team SOS) in a cell, and viola!....Excel does the calculation for you based on how it supposed to be calculated.
 
It's a simple approach after you organize everything.
 
Steps:
 
Highligh team entire table from Statfox. (where rush/pass/YPPT is located)
COPY
Paste Special in Excel (Unicode Code)
Put Team SOS in a cell (outside the table, obviously)
Excel finds the info you need and does the calculation for you.
 
Piece of cake.
 
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Posted: #192
I've got 21.86 and 21.08 in the SF/Cin game and playing under as well.    
Look out for the OT fucking.
 
VG-good post.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #193
VG, I already have an excel spreadsheet setup just for this.  I calculated all games for this week (including ncaaf and nfl) and posted ncaaf forum already.  This is assuming my calculations are correct.

VegasMaxx, how long have you been using this prediction for your pick and how accurate is it?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #194
I have a spreadsheet set up as well. You don't even need to paste special. Formatting holds when you paste it normal. I just copy the statfox chart and paste it in. formulas reference the proper cells so no work lol. Just gotta type in the SOS from sagarin. This way you don't have to worry about screwing up the numbers or calcs....good ole excel
 
Legend
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Posted: #195
Oh, that's great, then.
 
 
Legend
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Posted: #196
Quote Originally Posted by skan:

VG, I already have an excel spreadsheet setup just for this.  I calculated all games for this week (including ncaaf and nfl) and posted ncaaf forum already.  This is assuming my calculations are correct.

VegasMaxx, how long have you been using this prediction for your pick and how accurate is it?

Where is the link with all the predictions/game scores? I cannot find it.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #197
skan and eccocide, can I get a copy of your spreadsheet?  I was going to set one up but if you have already done the work it would save me some time.  Thanks.
 
Prospect
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Posts: 25
Posted: #198
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:

These are the predictions based on the system for week 6 in NFL (bear in mind that statfox keeps inaccurate stats, your scores may be just a bit different by a point or two. I found more than 20+ errors with their stats, and I gave up. (confirmed with ESPN.com and NFL.com stats)

Kansas City 16, Washington 18
Houston 14, Cincinnati 38
Cleveland 12, Pittsburgh 21
Baltimore 26, Minnesota 31
St Louis 8, Jacksonville 26
NY Giants 14, New Orleans 51 (since Giants have the worst SOS according to Sagarin, they get penalized big time and New Orleans is compensated big time. This is one of the flaws of the system)
Carolina 20, Tampa Bay 16
Detroit 33, Green Bay 37
Philadelphia 24, Oakland 15
Arizona 17, Seattle 26
Buffalo 11, NY Jets 26
Tennesse 15, New England 31
Chicago 18, Atlanta 23
Denver 22, San Diego 12


Let me know if these scores and really different from your scores.



These are mine:

Kansas City 20, Washington 14
Houston 10, Cincinnati 42
Cleveland 10, Pittsburgh 23
Baltimore 27, Minnesota 24
St Louis 9, Jacksonville 24
NY Giants 17, New Orleans 42
Carolina 20, Tampa Bay 16
Detroit 24, Green Bay 38
Philadelphia 24, Oakland 13
Arizona 17, Seattle 23
Buffalo 10, NY Jets 24
Tennesse 14, New England 30
Chicago 17, Atlanta 23
Denver 23, San Diego 10

Hmmm, too many differences...

 
Prospect
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Posted: #199
Quote Originally Posted by GameBall:

LOU4062...

the number 23.7/25.8 = 1.088 is from SAGARIN'S, but which number is which from the SAGARIN'S chart?

thanks

 

Gameball,

Those sos ratings were from team rankings.  Roughshod uses sagarin ratings now for sos.

 
 
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Posted: #200

10/15/09

Projected Game Score

Cincinnati  (18.3)     20

S. Florida   (14.6)     17

Be back later with more breakdown of this game.

GL

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