Kansas City 20, Washington 14 Houston 10, Cincinnati 42 Cleveland 10, Pittsburgh 23 Baltimore 27, Minnesota 24 St Louis 9, Jacksonville 24 NY Giants 17, New Orleans 42 Carolina 20, Tampa Bay 16 Detroit 24, Green Bay 38 Philadelphia 24, Oakland 13 Arizona 17, Seattle 23 Buffalo 10, NY Jets 24 Tennesse 14, New England 30 Chicago 17, Atlanta 23 Denver 23, San Diego 10
Hmmm, too many differences...
Obviously. If you used statfox stats, then it will be different from my numbers. Statfox stats are inaccurate. Are these results accurate?
What I mean, did you increase/decrease predictions to make it more "realistic" final score?
For example, you have Chicago 17, Atlanta 23 (I have Chicago 18, Atlanta 23). Since 18 is not not score that often, did you decrease it to 17 points for Bears?
Also, Buffalo 10, NY Jets 24 (I have it at Buffalo 11, NY Jets 26)
Did you decrease Buffalo and Jets?
It appears all your scores and predictions with "realistic" final numbers, but I doubt a system will produce results for ALL games.
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Quote Originally Posted by jesterr:
These are mine:
Kansas City 20, Washington 14 Houston 10, Cincinnati 42 Cleveland 10, Pittsburgh 23 Baltimore 27, Minnesota 24 St Louis 9, Jacksonville 24 NY Giants 17, New Orleans 42 Carolina 20, Tampa Bay 16 Detroit 24, Green Bay 38 Philadelphia 24, Oakland 13 Arizona 17, Seattle 23 Buffalo 10, NY Jets 24 Tennesse 14, New England 30 Chicago 17, Atlanta 23 Denver 23, San Diego 10
Hmmm, too many differences...
Obviously. If you used statfox stats, then it will be different from my numbers. Statfox stats are inaccurate. Are these results accurate?
What I mean, did you increase/decrease predictions to make it more "realistic" final score?
For example, you have Chicago 17, Atlanta 23 (I have Chicago 18, Atlanta 23). Since 18 is not not score that often, did you decrease it to 17 points for Bears?
Also, Buffalo 10, NY Jets 24 (I have it at Buffalo 11, NY Jets 26)
Did you decrease Buffalo and Jets?
It appears all your scores and predictions with "realistic" final numbers, but I doubt a system will produce results for ALL games.
When I was playing with this formula yesterday before the Tulsa game I factor in home field andvantage and not SOS. I came up with a score of Tulsa 18.5 which could translate to 20 and Boise St 26 which would translate to 27. This is my first time using any formula for predicting. But i am a huge college football fan. One thing I think factors is college footbal is HFA. I took away the SOS and added 1.5 for tulsa and -1.5 for Boise St. Just thought I share that.
0
When I was playing with this formula yesterday before the Tulsa game I factor in home field andvantage and not SOS. I came up with a score of Tulsa 18.5 which could translate to 20 and Boise St 26 which would translate to 27. This is my first time using any formula for predicting. But i am a huge college football fan. One thing I think factors is college footbal is HFA. I took away the SOS and added 1.5 for tulsa and -1.5 for Boise St. Just thought I share that.
When I was playing with this formula yesterday before the Tulsa game I factor in home field andvantage and not SOS. I came up with a score of Tulsa 18.5 which could translate to 20 and Boise St 26 which would translate to 27. This is my first time using any formula for predicting. But i am a huge college football fan. One thing I think factors is college footbal is HFA. I took away the SOS and added 1.5 for tulsa and -1.5 for Boise St. Just thought I share that.
One more thing, at first I gave the full 3 points to Tulsa and that would of been a score of 20 and Boise would of had 28. But then I realized it seems these formulas consist of dividing up the factors so i did it that way.
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Quote Originally Posted by ntwcm:
When I was playing with this formula yesterday before the Tulsa game I factor in home field andvantage and not SOS. I came up with a score of Tulsa 18.5 which could translate to 20 and Boise St 26 which would translate to 27. This is my first time using any formula for predicting. But i am a huge college football fan. One thing I think factors is college footbal is HFA. I took away the SOS and added 1.5 for tulsa and -1.5 for Boise St. Just thought I share that.
One more thing, at first I gave the full 3 points to Tulsa and that would of been a score of 20 and Boise would of had 28. But then I realized it seems these formulas consist of dividing up the factors so i did it that way.
One more thing, at first I gave the full 3 points to Tulsa and that would of been a score of 20 and Boise would of had 28. But then I realized it seems these formulas consist of dividing up the factors so i did it that way.
Oh yeah I won too
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Quote Originally Posted by ntwcm:
One more thing, at first I gave the full 3 points to Tulsa and that would of been a score of 20 and Boise would of had 28. But then I realized it seems these formulas consist of dividing up the factors so i did it that way.
Ok all, these are the predictions I got so far for week 6. I am not using a spreadsheet, just an old fashioned notebook and pencil. (A pencil with a very big eraser.) Actually, I'm getting pretty good at this. I have only done 4 games thus far.
I also subtracted all negitives and added all positives before dividing and will see how that goes. I did not account for HFA neither. Home teams this year are only 40-35-1 vs the spread so far.
Thanks again roughshod for making this fun!
Kcy 20
Was 12
Hou 12
Cin 40
Cle 13
Pit 19
Bal 27
Min 24
0
Ok all, these are the predictions I got so far for week 6. I am not using a spreadsheet, just an old fashioned notebook and pencil. (A pencil with a very big eraser.) Actually, I'm getting pretty good at this. I have only done 4 games thus far.
I also subtracted all negitives and added all positives before dividing and will see how that goes. I did not account for HFA neither. Home teams this year are only 40-35-1 vs the spread so far.
The difference is 3.7 and you are giving it a 3 point difference? Shouldn't be a 4 point difference?
How does 14.6 projected score go all the way up to 17 points?
I'm just curious.
I don't want to speak for him, but he may use other handicapping methods to decide which way to round. USF at home, on thursday night, in a big game. He probably decided to round it up, because of those factors which is what I did as well.
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Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:
The difference is 3.7 and you are giving it a 3 point difference? Shouldn't be a 4 point difference?
How does 14.6 projected score go all the way up to 17 points?
I'm just curious.
I don't want to speak for him, but he may use other handicapping methods to decide which way to round. USF at home, on thursday night, in a big game. He probably decided to round it up, because of those factors which is what I did as well.
Obviously. If you used statfox stats, then it will be different from my numbers. Statfox stats are inaccurate. Are these results accurate?
What I mean, did you increase/decrease predictions to make it more "realistic" final score?
For example, you have Chicago 17, Atlanta 23 (I have Chicago 18, Atlanta 23). Since 18 is not not score that often, did you decrease it to 17 points for Bears?
Also, Buffalo 10, NY Jets 24 (I have it at Buffalo 11, NY Jets 26)
Did you decrease Buffalo and Jets?
It appears all your scores and predictions with "realistic" final numbers, but I doubt a system will produce results for ALL games.
Yes, I did some "rounding", but it's not what I meant by differences. It's KC@WAS (16-18 and 20-14, by you and me, respectively), BAL@MIN (26-31 and 27-24), and DET@GB (33-37 and 24-38).
Other games are pretty much the same.
So, if you're not using statfox anymore, which stats do you recommend?
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Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:
Obviously. If you used statfox stats, then it will be different from my numbers. Statfox stats are inaccurate. Are these results accurate?
What I mean, did you increase/decrease predictions to make it more "realistic" final score?
For example, you have Chicago 17, Atlanta 23 (I have Chicago 18, Atlanta 23). Since 18 is not not score that often, did you decrease it to 17 points for Bears?
Also, Buffalo 10, NY Jets 24 (I have it at Buffalo 11, NY Jets 26)
Did you decrease Buffalo and Jets?
It appears all your scores and predictions with "realistic" final numbers, but I doubt a system will produce results for ALL games.
Yes, I did some "rounding", but it's not what I meant by differences. It's KC@WAS (16-18 and 20-14, by you and me, respectively), BAL@MIN (26-31 and 27-24), and DET@GB (33-37 and 24-38).
Other games are pretty much the same.
So, if you're not using statfox anymore, which stats do you recommend?
I modified the formula, making it so now I just split the difference on double negatives & positives. The reason being that if Team A rushes for 35 YDS less than opponents def. avg. & Team B allows 25 YDS less than opp. off. avg, I don't see it being likely that Team A will rush for 60 YDS less than their normal avg. ( I think splitting the difference making it -30 is much more likely in these cases.)
GL
Interesting roughshod31. After you split the difference you would divide the difference by 2, as usual? If so, isn't this treating it the same way as a positive and a negative? Just curious.
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Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:
10/13/09
Arkansas State @ Louisiana Monroe
Ark St. 151 (R) 252 (P) 403 (TYDS) 11.4 YPPT
LA Monroe 163 (R) 261 (P) 426 (TYDS) 15.2 YPPT
Projected Score
Arkansas St. 35
LA Monroe 28
PLAY: Arkansas St. + 2.5
I modified the formula, making it so now I just split the difference on double negatives & positives. The reason being that if Team A rushes for 35 YDS less than opponents def. avg. & Team B allows 25 YDS less than opp. off. avg, I don't see it being likely that Team A will rush for 60 YDS less than their normal avg. ( I think splitting the difference making it -30 is much more likely in these cases.)
GL
Interesting roughshod31. After you split the difference you would divide the difference by 2, as usual? If so, isn't this treating it the same way as a positive and a negative? Just curious.
Not sure why I'm getting 17.6 and you are getting 18.3. My formulas are programmed in excel so I won't have any mathematical error. Unless you are doing some double negative splitting or whatever. I kept it pure.
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Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:
10/15/09
Projected Game Score
Cincinnati (18.3) 20
S. Florida (14.6) 17
Be back later with more breakdown of this game.
GL
Not sure why I'm getting 17.6 and you are getting 18.3. My formulas are programmed in excel so I won't have any mathematical error. Unless you are doing some double negative splitting or whatever. I kept it pure.
which formula is better? the ark st. posting against la monroe is different from the recent postings for boise and new orleans saints. the boise and new orleans games are the original, easier to calculate formula? i tried both ways on the same games and it doesnt make a huge difference in final scores but it does make a small difference (less than 2 points) but i think accuracy is key in making these types of formulas.
0
which formula is better? the ark st. posting against la monroe is different from the recent postings for boise and new orleans saints. the boise and new orleans games are the original, easier to calculate formula? i tried both ways on the same games and it doesnt make a huge difference in final scores but it does make a small difference (less than 2 points) but i think accuracy is key in making these types of formulas.
vgpop, These are the ncaaf games I posted yesterday.
Virginia +2.5 Wake forest +7 central Michigan -7 Ohio -14 Marshall +21 Nebraska -10 (buy .5) Texas A&M -6 Virginia Tech -3 Missouri +7 Colorado state +22 Indiana +2 Norther illinos -4.5 kansas -10 Central Florida +14
Can someone do the math and agree/disagree on these games? Everything else (with the exception of ark/texas) is well within spread. I wanted to play ark but because the health of the QB being questionable, I left it out.
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:
Where is the link with all the predictions/game scores? I cannot find it.
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vgpop, These are the ncaaf games I posted yesterday.
Virginia +2.5 Wake forest +7 central Michigan -7 Ohio -14 Marshall +21 Nebraska -10 (buy .5) Texas A&M -6 Virginia Tech -3 Missouri +7 Colorado state +22 Indiana +2 Norther illinos -4.5 kansas -10 Central Florida +14
Can someone do the math and agree/disagree on these games? Everything else (with the exception of ark/texas) is well within spread. I wanted to play ark but because the health of the QB being questionable, I left it out.
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:
Where is the link with all the predictions/game scores? I cannot find it.
When I was playing with this formula yesterday before the Tulsa game I factor in home field andvantage and not SOS. I came up with a score of Tulsa 18.5 which could translate to 20 and Boise St 26 which would translate to 27. This is my first time using any formula for predicting. But i am a huge college football fan. One thing I think factors is college footbal is HFA. I took away the SOS and added 1.5 for tulsa and -1.5 for Boise St. Just thought I share that.
ntwcm,
Can you explain how you used home field advantage instead of SOS. I cant figure it out. Let me know how you get it and what you do with it and i can figure the rest out.
Thanks
0
Quote Originally Posted by ntwcm:
When I was playing with this formula yesterday before the Tulsa game I factor in home field andvantage and not SOS. I came up with a score of Tulsa 18.5 which could translate to 20 and Boise St 26 which would translate to 27. This is my first time using any formula for predicting. But i am a huge college football fan. One thing I think factors is college footbal is HFA. I took away the SOS and added 1.5 for tulsa and -1.5 for Boise St. Just thought I share that.
ntwcm,
Can you explain how you used home field advantage instead of SOS. I cant figure it out. Let me know how you get it and what you do with it and i can figure the rest out.
Can you explain how you used home field advantage instead of SOS. I cant figure it out. Let me know how you get it and what you do with it and i can figure the rest out.
Thanks
Pretty much use roughshod formula and get the score. From there either -1.5 for the away team and add 1.5 for the home team. Or just add 3 points for the home. Like I said Ive only done it once. I think using SOS for college football would be really tough. HFA maybe the better factor.
I get Cinci 17 USF 20, so thats different from others. It'll be interesting. But one thing I do agree is the under.
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Quote Originally Posted by Pegasus21:
ntwcm,
Can you explain how you used home field advantage instead of SOS. I cant figure it out. Let me know how you get it and what you do with it and i can figure the rest out.
Thanks
Pretty much use roughshod formula and get the score. From there either -1.5 for the away team and add 1.5 for the home team. Or just add 3 points for the home. Like I said Ive only done it once. I think using SOS for college football would be really tough. HFA maybe the better factor.
I get Cinci 17 USF 20, so thats different from others. It'll be interesting. But one thing I do agree is the under.
I've completed the table/formula in Excel so I can just highlight info from Statfox and put it in Excel for Sunday's games.
I'm going to go even a step further and also select Sagarin's ratings and have Excel read SOS as well. The only thing I need is to write the name of team in question, and Excel finds info and match everything and calculates infomation. (I ain't looking for SOS stats one-by-one if I don't have to)
(These are the results based on the owner's thread sample of Boise State/Tulsa. This is using statfox stats. If you get something different, you did something wrong....lol)
I am decreasing decimal so it shows whole number. (20 instead of 20.13, etc)
Kansas City 20 Washington 12
Houston 12 Cincinnati 40
Cleveland 13 Pittsburgh 19
Baltimore 28 Minnesota 24
St Louis 9 Jacksonville 23
NY Giants 16 New Orleans 42 (this is the one I did by hand confirming formula I am using for all calculations is correct)
Carolina 20 Tampa Bay 15
Detroit 27 Green Bay 35
Arizona 17 Seattle 23
Buffalo 11 NY Jets 24
Tennessee 14 New England 30
Chicago 18 Atlanta 22
Denver 23 San Diego 11
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I've completed the table/formula in Excel so I can just highlight info from Statfox and put it in Excel for Sunday's games.
I'm going to go even a step further and also select Sagarin's ratings and have Excel read SOS as well. The only thing I need is to write the name of team in question, and Excel finds info and match everything and calculates infomation. (I ain't looking for SOS stats one-by-one if I don't have to)
(These are the results based on the owner's thread sample of Boise State/Tulsa. This is using statfox stats. If you get something different, you did something wrong....lol)
I am decreasing decimal so it shows whole number. (20 instead of 20.13, etc)
Kansas City 20 Washington 12
Houston 12 Cincinnati 40
Cleveland 13 Pittsburgh 19
Baltimore 28 Minnesota 24
St Louis 9 Jacksonville 23
NY Giants 16 New Orleans 42 (this is the one I did by hand confirming formula I am using for all calculations is correct)
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