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New YPPT Method

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Posted: #26
Crazy Math Shizz
 
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Posted: #27
Very interesting
 
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Posted: #28
YPPT measures efficiency for both offense & defense. The lower the offenses YPPT is (ex.12.5) the better, while a larger YPPT on defense is optimal (ex.20.0). YPPT is a measure of how far you need to travel to score or how far you force your oppent to travel to score.
 
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Posted: #29
Hi roughshod,
 
I'm afraid I have another question.  I did the math for the ind/ten game (it took me 2 hours) not really...lol....I noticed unless I'm wrong that you did not use HFA in that game and was wondering if you use it?  My score came out the same ind 28, ten 17 with no HFA added.  If you had added 3 to kcy you would have had another cover to go with this great week!  I know you only play  a 4 difference but I'm just saying a cover is a cover. 
 
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Posted: #30
Great work!!!
 
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Posted: #31
Very well done...
Bet with your wallet not your heart
 
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Posted: #33
roughshod31
 
 
 
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Posted: #34
Can someone please explain how this math works? 


Nice work roughshod
 
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Posted: #35
 nice
 
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Posted: #36
I like this method.  It obviously not going to get results like this every week, but it is better than most.  Keep up the good work.  Look forward to some more from you.
 
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Posted: #37

10/12/09

Jets vs. Dolphins

I'm going to try to explain the math here so bear with me and feel free to ask questions.

Jets (Off.)       130.5R (+31.1)   166.7P (-67.9)  16.1YPPT (+0.7)

Opp. Allow       99.4                 234.6               15.4


Dolphins (Def)   61.0R (-28.1)    238.5P (-20.1)   15.2 YPPT (+0.3)

Opp. Allow        89.1                 258.6               14.9

Rushing (R)    130.5 + 61.0 = 191.5/2 = 95.8

                      (+31.1) - (-28.1) = 3.0/2 = 1.5     (95.8 + 1.5 = 97.3)

Strength of Schedule (SOS) (Using Sagarin Ratings, see USA TODAY)

NY Jets 20.91 (.980)     (20.91/21.34 = .980)Repeat for MIA.

Miami    21.76 (1.020)   (20.91 + 21.76 = 42.67/2 = 21.34)

Use Offense SOS for calculating R + P. (ex. 97.3 x .980 = 95.4)

Use Defense  SOS for calculating YPPT. (ex. 16.2 x 1.020 = 16.5)

Final Calculations

Jets          95 (R)    175 (P)   270 (YDS)       16.5 (YPPT)   16.4 PTS

Dolphins   161 (R)    159 (P)   320 (YDS)       18.8 (YPPT)  17.0 PTS

The end part of the process is pure common sense. 16 PTS. can only happen 3 ways (commonly) which are all unlikely given that the Jets are only projected for 270 YDS. (2 TDs + 2PT con., a safety, or 3 FG's.) That being said 14 is more likely.

Projected Score 

NY Jets     14

Miami        17

GL


       


 
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Posted: #38
 
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Posted: #39
Hey Roughshod great work looks like very good stuff. 
 
Just wondering where do you get all your stats and where do you find the SOS?
 
Thanks and GL.
 
 
 
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Posted: #40
in your calculations where did you get the opp. allow figures from?
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

10/12/09

Jets vs. Dolphins

I'm going to try to explain the math here so bear with me and feel free to ask questions.

Jets (Off.)       130.5R (+31.1)   166.7P (-67.9)  16.1YPPT (+0.7)

Opp. Allow       99.4                 234.6               15.4


Dolphins (Def)   61.0R (-28.1)    238.5P (-20.1)   15.2 YPPT (+0.3)

Opp. Allow        89.1                 258.6               14.9

Rushing (R)    130.5 + 61.0 = 191.5/2 = 95.8

                      (+31.1) - (-28.1) = 3.0/2 = 1.5     (95.8 + 1.5 = 97.3)

Strength of Schedule (SOS) (Using Sagarin Ratings, see USA TODAY)

NY Jets 20.91 (.980)     (20.91/21.34 = .980)Repeat for MIA.

Miami    21.76 (1.020)   (20.91 + 21.76 = 42.67/2 = 21.34)

Use Offense SOS for calculating R + P. (ex. 97.3 x .980 = 95.4)

Use Defense  SOS for calculating YPPT. (ex. 16.2 x 1.020 = 16.5)

Final Calculations

Jets          95 (R)    175 (P)   270 (YDS)       16.5 (YPPT)   16.4 PTS

Dolphins   161 (R)    159 (P)   320 (YDS)       18.8 (YPPT)  17.0 PTS

The end part of the process is pure common sense. 16 PTS. can only happen 3 ways (commonly) which are all unlikely given that the Jets are only projected for 270 YDS. (2 TDs + 2PT con., a safety, or 3 FG's.) That being said 14 is more likely.

Projected Score 

NY Jets     14

Miami        17

GL


Hey roughshod,   I got the Jets for 158.6 passing yards before sos is applied.  Can you check that?  I got nyj 166.7  (-67.9) + mia 238.5 (-20.1)

166.7+ 238.5 /2 = 202.6  202.6- (-67.9 + -20.1) /2 =158.6 pass yards for nyj?
 

Maybe I messed up again?  And all of this is with no HFA applied, correct?

 

Thank you

 
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Posted: #42

shakes

Statfox.com (NFL Game Matchups)

Opp Def Avg.

 
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Posted: #43
errrr... why only used one team's offense numbers and one team's defense numbers? 
in your first example, you only used Viks' O and only Rams' D.  in your later example, you only used Jets' O and only Dolphins' D. 
 
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Posted: #44

lou 

I still struggle with  the DOUBLE Negatives as well as positives. MY thought is w/Jets & Dolphins -67.9 & -20.1 you would split the difference -47.8/2 = -23.9. (202.6 - 23.9 = 178.7 x .980 = 175.1). And yeah no HF advantage bc I have yet to find an effective means to date.

 
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Posted: #45

Lucky

Sorry about only showing a small part of the formula, but it takes me 15-20 minutes to write this all out by hand & I don't type well so if there is a particular part of this you don't understand show your work here and I will tell you if its right or how to correct it.

 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

10/12/09

Jets vs. Dolphins

I'm going to try to explain the math here so bear with me and feel free to ask questions.

Jets (Off.)       130.5R (+31.1)   166.7P (-67.9)  16.1YPPT (+0.7)

Opp. Allow       99.4                 234.6               15.4


Dolphins (Def)   61.0R (-28.1)    238.5P (-20.1)   15.2 YPPT (+0.3)

Opp. Allow        89.1                 258.6               14.9

Rushing (R)    130.5 + 61.0 = 191.5/2 = 95.8

                      (+31.1) - (-28.1) = 3.0/2 = 1.5     (95.8 + 1.5 = 97.3)

Strength of Schedule (SOS) (Using Sagarin Ratings, see USA TODAY)

NY Jets 20.91 (.980)     (20.91/21.34 = .980)Repeat for MIA.

Miami    21.76 (1.020)   (20.91 + 21.76 = 42.67/2 = 21.34)

Use Offense SOS for calculating R + P. (ex. 97.3 x .980 = 95.4)

Use Defense  SOS for calculating YPPT. (ex. 16.2 x 1.020 = 16.5)

Final Calculations

Jets          95 (R)    175 (P)   270 (YDS)       16.5 (YPPT)   16.4 PTS

Dolphins   161 (R)    159 (P)   320 (YDS)       18.8 (YPPT)  17.0 PTS

The end part of the process is pure common sense. 16 PTS. can only happen 3 ways (commonly) which are all unlikely given that the Jets are only projected for 270 YDS. (2 TDs + 2PT con., a safety, or 3 FG's.) That being said 14 is more likely.

Projected Score 

NY Jets     14

Miami        17

GL


       




do you take into consideration that the stats were when they had pennington (for the most part)? Henne wasn't that spectacular in the win over pathetic buffalo.  Jets also getting calvin pace back, maybe a threat with edwards? and a skewed line because of the 24 points given up to the saints.  in the loss though, only 10 allowed by the defense.  I think sanchez will come out and try and prove himself.  just some thoughts.
 
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Posted: #47

moke

Right now I have to make due with the best information available to me. Defenses being wrongly held accountable for offensive miscues & vice versa is an unfortunate and difficult thing to account for when handicapping. None of us can account for a receiver tipping the ball to a defender or a special teams player running into his return man causing a fumble they are just things that happen. As for the Henne part of your question, teams adjust for the difference in talent (See Kevin Kolb, Seneca Wallace they did quite nicely).


 
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Posted: #48
what is your record this year?  Thanks and good luck
 
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Posted: #49
Wow...Thats crazy
 
 
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Impressive
 
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