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New YPPT Method

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Prospect
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Posted: #451

i dont get really how u guys do this but ... do u think it would work on NHL games

 
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Posted: #452

This is the results of the latest tweaking of my formula. I have changed the way that I come up with a SOS multiplier.

Florida St.   380 Yds.  15.2 YPPT   75 Plays   5.2 YPP     (22.9)

N. Carolina   312 Yds.  16.3 YPPT   54 Plays   5.5 YPP     (21.4)

Scores are adjusted for 4.50 HFA  (-2.25/+2.25)

Projected Score

Florida State    23

North Carolina  21

I see this as a marginal play on FSU + 2.5

Be back to answer any question again later tonight.

GL


 
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Posted: #453

Hey rough wat do u got for the NFL games and how do u do this bc i dont really understand it ... And do u think it will work on NHL games

 
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Posted: #454
try 1 more time
 
Prospect
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Posted: #455

I have finally set up my spreadsheet to work with statfox!

Wow, there are a lot of points predicted in the games this week.

 
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Posted: #456
i just want some one to post this weeks games using roughshods system with all winners
 
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Posted: #457

Quote Originally Posted by tonysolimini:

i just want some one to post this weeks games using roughshods system with all winners

 

Vgpop has already done so.  Check back and see.  He does use roughshods original system.  I am using the same system except that I add for HFA which differs the scores slightly.

 
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Posted: #458
Hoped most of you guys had FSU tonight.. I took FSU, reverse FSU + over.

Roughshod, if you don't mind can you post up your NFL plays early this week? Thanks
 
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Posted: #459
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

This is the results of the latest tweaking of my formula. I have changed the way that I come up with a SOS multiplier.

Florida St.   380 Yds.  15.2 YPPT   75 Plays   5.2 YPP     (22.9)

N. Carolina   312 Yds.  16.3 YPPT   54 Plays   5.5 YPP     (21.4)

Scores are adjusted for 4.50 HFA  (-2.25/+2.25)

Projected Score

Florida State    23

North Carolina  21

I see this as a marginal play on FSU + 2.5

Be back to answer any question again later tonight.

GL


Tonights Actual Numbers

Florida St.     438 Yds.  14.6 YPPT  67 Plays 6.5 YPP   (30)

North Carolina 333 Yds.  12.3 YPPT  71 Plays  4.7 YPP  (27)

Good Night Everyone

 
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Posted: #460
Thats really AWESOME stuff totally appreciate the time worked on this rough and all other, GL hope it works all week
 
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Posted: #461
do you have your NFL predictions up? really curious to see the Colts Vs. STL predictions
 
Prospect
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Posted: #462
Quote Originally Posted by lou4062:

I have finally set up my spreadsheet to work with statfox!

Wow, there are a lot of points predicted in the games this week.



Hey, how do you set up your spreadsheet to work with statfox because right now I am just manually entering in numbers...

Thanks
 
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Posted: #463
Thats a great Idea RM2673 I can help if needed.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #464
yes vegasplayer. if you know how to input the data in an easier way than manually entering the numbers please let me know.
 
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Posted: #465

I had FSU 28, UNC 24 without HFA, which came really close. I made small play FSU +3.

Tomorrow, I have Rutgers 21, Army 17 with no HFA. So, I'm playing Army +10 1/2.

 
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Posted: #466
Quote Originally Posted by roughshod31:

Tonights Actual Numbers

Florida St.     438 Yds.  14.6 YPPT  67 Plays 6.5 YPP   (30)

North Carolina 333 Yds.  12.3 YPPT  71 Plays  4.7 YPP  (27)

Good Night Everyone



hey roughshod could you possibly share the new way you make your sos multiplier? i've been trying to come up with a good way to do it. the one I'm using right now came up with

FSU - 360 yards 15.16yppt (23)
UNC - 330 yards 15.77yppt (20)

this is without HFA(-/+), i think its unnecessary with the sos multiplier i use. i was also wondering if and how you would account for total plays and yards per play on offense/defense

 
Prospect
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Posted: #467
Quote Originally Posted by psychojuggalo:

i dont get really how u guys do this but ... do u think it would work on NHL games



i think its possible, ive been trying to figure out what the most logical way to predict games would be. but im a new nhl capper (first year). if you have any ideas, let me know
 
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Posted: #468
for tomorrows game:

Rutgers (32) 290 yds 8.93 yppt
Army (11) 230 yds 21.014 yppt
 
Prospect
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Posted: #469
igotthegoods, that Rutgers yppt is way off. StatFox has 12.00. And, I double checked on Yahoo and came up with 11.99. (I don't think any college team has a number that low!) Army yppt is off as well. I had 16.2. And, Army actually hase a stronger schedule. And is at home. So, I really have no idea how you came to those numbers.
 
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Posted: #470
BTW, I think I found the craziest college game of the weekend. Do the calculations for North Texas at Troy, and then tell me what you think about Troy -20!!!
 
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Posted: #471
Looking over the Week 7 predictions, according to the system it says to play 9 games, all of which are road teams. A coincidence this coming week, or has anybody else noticed a bias to taking road teams with the system since it's been introduced?
 
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Posted: #472
Rough and VGPop,

Just wanted to say thank you. A lot of time and effort here. I am one of those guys (I'm sure there are legit thousands) that read every post on here and rarely add value. I'm a math guy, and this formula is tough even for me. But I understand it and value it's results.

I've found that it's obviously more effective for NFL than NCAA and for Sides than Totals. Just wanted to say thank you again from all of us.

Glav


 
Prospect
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Posted: #473

Quote Originally Posted by rm2673:



Hey, how do you set up your spreadsheet to work with statfox because right now I am just manually entering in numbers...

Thanks

 

I will try to show you in sections. It is the only thing I have left to try.  It will be for the nol/mia game. 

 
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Posted: #474
Pretty close last night! Keep up the good work and keep us posted on your selections as you fine tune, enjoying this thread alot.
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #475

Hey Lou any chance you could share your spread sheet ? I too am like rm2673 having to cut/paste each stat ....

Trying to figure out how to copy entire sheet from statfox and paste have it spreadsheet sum the columns pulling the data for the formula ....

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