New YPPT Method

Hi Lou,

I got the HFA from USA Today, along with the Sagarin SCHEDL number.  I'm not actually sure if it should be .68 or 1.36.  But the thing I don't like about the HFA is that it's the same across the board, which doesn't quite make sense to me.  I was looking for a better way to calculate HFA, but go side tracked.  And I still think there were anomalies this weekend that skewed the winning percentage, like MIA! 

hey recon,

I hear ya on the tough week .   

I wish we could start week 9 right now!  As far as the hfa ratings, I just thought that was the total to add according to the directions, not that it would have mattered this week.

hey recon,

I hear ya on the tough week .   

I wish we could start week 9 right now!  As far as the hfa ratings, I just thought that was the total to add according to the directions, not that it would have mattered this week.

To everyone,

Sorry for the double posts!

Karameat. I have said many times that I have read all of the posts.  All 950 of them. and all 220 of the college posts.  How do you think I just quoted specific posts.

So VGPOP.  If you post the final scores on a Wednesday....and it's a system play on Wednesday but not Saturday because the line has changed......if someone bets it on Wednesday night before the line has moved would it not still be a system play?  The line changing would not change your predicted outcome of the game would it?

I totally get what you are saying about the line changing but do you see the other side of the coin as well?  If your final post had 15 plays how did we get 11-9 on the results?

No you still don't get it. Stop worrying about what I post and you think is the "official" final plays.

Go back again to the thread, and look at post of the final predictions (I think I posted it at 11:40am ET), open up scoredandodds.com, and check the FINAL closing lines of each game and compare it to the post I made.

Do you know how to add and subtract? Look for plays that the difference was +/- 7 points from scoresandds.com closing lines.

I

Go get'em roughshod!  You positively have are support out here!  Now, get back to the lab and let us deal with the unwanteds!

VGPOP

I am looking for a way to incorporate first downs & 3rd down conversion % into the system in a meaningful way as I feel that they both generally indicate how a game went. Any ideas on this matter would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

Roughshod31

For shits and giggles I teased 6 totals and 4 totals of the games that were furthest from the o/u lines.....Won them both. 

Actually it was a 7 teamer.

Cause it have a better chance of winning than your picks.

Quote Originally Posted by icurpickslose:

This system is good but not great

Good is good enough for alot of us, show us a great system then we will follow your post.

I am sorry that makes no sense.  You are posting what your SYSTEM says the final score is going to be.  And you are saying that if the spread is more than 7 points from that score that it should be an official play.

SO it shouldn't matter what the final line is.  If we get a line that is +/- 7 from the final score YOU post it should be a play.  The line at gametime means nothing...unless you are betting at gametime.

If I can get a line that puts me 10 points away form your final score prediction and the line than changes 4 points...too bad for waiting.  That's my point.

So who put a gun to your head to bet what one person figured out to be a good bet???

You might as well go into every thread and tell them they were wrong when they pick a team that loses.

My guess is that you made a username just to bash these guys because they did not give 100% winners and you lost on a couple of bets trying it.

I don't see one pick out of your 28 posts....Too busy being a Dick ?

Looks like I was right. 

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=100571518