All Forums | Systems & Strategies

NFL 09' strategic wagering...

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 47590
Posts: 641
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 243
Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by BillWag27:

Dogs I'm interested in next week......

If you have any questions why, I will be more than happy to explain....Just ask!!    We are all here to help one another.

Week #3 Leans:

Tennessee        + 3
Jacksonville     + 4
Cleveland         + 14
Tampa Bay       + 7
San Francisco + 6
Buffalo              + 4
Carolina            + 8

Lines are not up for the Monday night teams and Chic vs Seat, so I may add or subtract as the week continues.

** I lines move in my favor, it will be a play......
** If they move against me, but not over a key number, then it also will be a play.....

** If the line moves against me and crosses over a key number, then it is a no play!!!

Bill, Great week with all of your selections! I personally would greatly appreciate any insight into your handicapping methodolgy.  I also hope Sport_Network let's us in on his game plans.  He seems to be sharp on many fronts.  His tail is getting very long - probably moved that Baltimore line. 

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2008
Posts: 289
Posted: #102
SN,
 
Great to see you are back for the NFL season.  I have a question for you that I am sure a lot of people are wondering.....
 
I was very surprised to see you are publishing teasers early on.  Are you truly a believer in teasers in the NFL?  I have always held the opinion that teasers are dangerous and unnecessary.  I think that in the 7 games scored so far in your teasers, 6 of them weren't impacted at all by a 13 point swing.  Wouldn't everyone be better off just betting the games straight and being 6 for 7 rather than betting teasers and being 1-0, soon to be 2-0?
 
Respectfully,
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 8426
Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:

SN,
 
Great to see you are back for the NFL season.  I have a question for you that I am sure a lot of people are wondering.....
 
I was very surprised to see you are publishing teasers early on.  Are you truly a believer in teasers in the NFL?  I have always held the opinion that teasers are dangerous and unnecessary.  I think that in the 7 games scored so far in your teasers, 6 of them weren't impacted at all by a 13 point swing.  Wouldn't everyone be better off just betting the games straight and being 6 for 7 rather than betting teasers and being 1-0, soon to be 2-0?
 
Respectfully,

yes, I am a firm believer in gaining advantage through the option of purchasing additional points to the maximum. with no respect to value loss, this is the NFL, winning is at a premium, and wagers are provided to fit the situation at hand.. The pointspread is designed for dog play, not for favorites, as most in-experienced cappers find out after a season doing the NFL, the 4 team / 13pt play is extremely strategic, once a capper understands it's value, and the formula of application... (don't judge a book by it's cover)

keep in mind, aprx 80% of all teasers "lose" the 20% that win, are by 10% of advanced, or proffessional handicappers, that win 90% of the time... your corect, of the 8 games, only 3 had an effect, but how is any capper to know the out come in advance? is the rational answer to your question; it only takes "one" game to lose.

iniciating the Matchup_Performance formula, and attaching it to purchased points is a key to successful NFL strategy...

best regards

SN

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2009
Posts: 2065
Posted: #104
I like the idea of the teaser and see great value in getting 13 points for each pick. Especially if you are adding 13 points to a dog already getting points.
 
And I totally agree on trying to win over the course of an NFL season betting faves to cover a spread. Too hard. At least for me. Looking back, any money I made was from picking the right games and taking the points. Always seemed to lose the favorites - the points.
 
Hope to wrap up the teaser tonight. GL everyone.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2009
Posts: 157
Posted: #105
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

That is by know means a stupid question, when a person does not know, they simply ask..

Matchup_Performance formula is the use of game film as a tool to handicapp the NFL, it's base is OC/DC attached to play development film(coaches prep film) game film ect...

best regards

SN



Does that mean that you watch the games and decide who you are going to bet on?  (I know that is drastically oversimplified).  To put it another way, do you use any statistics? math?  or do you rely on game film 100%?  Where do you get "game film" to watch for your analysis?  How much time do you spend analyzing film each week?
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2007
Posts: 16266
Posted: #106
ill take nine out of ten four team winning teasers anyday.      this is how i feel if that is the case.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 8426
Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by nolemonasses:

I like the idea of the teaser and see great value in getting 13 points for each pick. Especially if you are adding 13 points to a dog already getting points.
 
And I totally agree on trying to win over the course of an NFL season betting faves to cover a spread. Too hard. At least for me. Looking back, any money I made was from picking the right games and taking the points. Always seemed to lose the favorites - the points.
 
Hope to wrap up the teaser tonight. GL everyone.

Handicapping a team to win can be done consistently, cappin' a team to win by covering the spread is inconsistent.attached to the highest risk wager the NFL has to offer..the dog is the the true NFL capp to be successful; the ML dog is the master NFL capp.These are the plays that have to be constructed to gain BR strength; and unit wagering concepts..

SN

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 87
Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

..the dog is the the true NFL capp to be successful; the ML dog is the master NFL capp.  These are the plays that have to be constructed to gain BR strength; and unit wagering concepts..

SN



Well said.  For what it's worth, ML dogs went 8-7 yesterday. 

I'm going to have to go back over my old records, because my main focus in the NFL has been on ATS plays. 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 8426
Posted: #109

Quote Originally Posted by Jeff_Kent:



Does that mean that you watch the games and decide who you are going to bet on?  (I know that is drastically oversimplified).  To put it another way, do you use any statistics? math?  or do you rely on game film 100%?  Where do you get "game film" to watch for your analysis?  How much time do you spend analyzing film each week?

i spend aprx 60hrs in a 5 day span reviewing film purchased from media outlets, and NFL-Films I  basically view the same strategic film as offensive/defensive cordinators  set their came plans. Also NBC  CBS  ABC  ESPN plus all games live ect...I've converted to more film use based on the technology that has made it available over the past 4 years to handicappers who are not involved in NFL coaching..thru NFL-Films, thats the film you want to view...

SN

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 8426
Posted: #110

Quote Originally Posted by DarkHorse21:



Well said.  For what it's worth, ML dogs went 8-7 yesterday. 

I'm going to have to go back over my old records, because my main focus in the NFL has been on ATS plays. 

8-7 that's an early bark, worth quite a bit....

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 267
Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by pdg893:

Bill, Great week with all of your selections! I personally would greatly appreciate any insight into your handicapping methodolgy.  I also hope Sport_Network let's us in on his game plans.  He seems to be sharp on many fronts.  His tail is getting very long - probably moved that Baltimore line. 



PD,

The first and most important thing IMO is making a line yourself.  I rank my teams every week, which gives me a starting point (a game line) for each game.

I have values for each team based on total wins for the season. I try to predict their season total wins and then set a value.....Never go against your numbers...

Remember, good handicappers bet primarily underdogs or small favorites!!!!  Very important.....Find the dogs that can win.....If they are losing, they will continue to try to score (backdoor cover).  There is nothing worse than betting a medium or large favorite and they are winning, but not covering and they run, run, run, kneel to end the game. 

Next is where the "human element" comes into play...I look for several situations that may "over-value" a favorite. (public, blow-out win the prior week, etc)...Never base what you you just saw the prior week...It's the long haul to look at (Saints are 2-0, are they really that good? Tennessee is 0-2 are they that bad?)

1. Find value by doing your own rankings.
2. Underdogs, small favorites ONLY
3. Human Element - Trends (only with the current players and coach), let-downs, look ahead, east coast to west, etc...

Perfect example...Tonight the Over is 5 - 1 when Indy vs Miami.....

All six games where played before either head coach where with their respective teams....2006 was the last time these two teams played each other....

Under 42 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 267
Posted: #112
Quote Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:

SN,
 
Great to see you are back for the NFL season.  I have a question for you that I am sure a lot of people are wondering.....
 
I was very surprised to see you are publishing teasers early on.  Are you truly a believer in teasers in the NFL?  I have always held the opinion that teasers are dangerous and unnecessary.  I think that in the 7 games scored so far in your teasers, 6 of them weren't impacted at all by a 13 point swing.  Wouldn't everyone be better off just betting the games straight and being 6 for 7 rather than betting teasers and being 1-0, soon to be 2-0?
 
Respectfully,


Surf Man,

I only use 6 point teasers when I like a favorite of -2, -2.5 or 7.5, 8, 8.5........dogs when similar situation 1.5, 2, 8, 9....

These give you the ability to cross two key numbers....
-2 = +4 ...went from a fav crossing PK and 3
-8 = -2 ...went from more than a TD to less than a field goal...

I like what SN is doing, but I do not have the ability to do 13pt teasers....

I agree with his picks as long as they cross over several key numbers!!!!!!!!!!  (IMO, you still have to be on the right side...ex 13pt tease with Green Bay was a loser!!!)
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 267
Posted: #113
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

i spend aprx 60hrs in a 5 day span reviewing film purchased from media outlets, and NFL-Films I  basically view the same strategic film as offensive/defensive cordinators  set their came plans. Also NBC  CBS  ABC  ESPN plus all games live ect...I've converted to more film use based on the technology that has made it available over the past 4 years to handicappers who are not involved in NFL coaching..thru NFL-Films, thats the film you want to view...

SN



I couldn't agree more to just watching football!!!  As for the Wide and Tight (coaches versions)s film, they are great, but you must know what you are looking for!!!

SN, you are doing a great job!  Keep up the good work.......
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2007
Posts: 5827
Posted: #114
Really looking forward to your week 3 leans, SN - great job you're doing.
 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2009
Posts: 71
Posted: #115
Nice job so far SN.
Watched the Miami game. They had the Colts on the rope with their rushing and the wildcat. But then the Colts had this Peyton Manning guy. 

Get them next week.
Best of luck as always!
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 8426
Posted: #116
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network] [Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network]

NFL 09' strategic wagering / Matchup_Performance formula...

 
Week Two
Sunday,September 20th, 2009
 
4 team 13pt
risk: 4units
to win: 3.08units
 
Minnesota Vikings +3.5...win
New Orleans Saints +12...win
Baltimore Ravens +16...win
Miami Dolphins +16...win
 
SN
 
                            FINAL RESULTS
 
4-0
units: +3.08
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 8426
Posted: #117
[Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network] [Quote: Originally Posted by sports_Network] NFL 09' strategic wagering / Matchup_Performance formula...
 
Week Two
Sunday, September 20th, 2009
 
Pittsburg Steelers -140 ML / 7units...loss
 
Miami Dolphins +3.5 / 5.5units...loss
 
Baltimore Ravens +3.5 / 11units...win
 
 
SN
 
                                  FINAL RESULTS (combined)
 
5-2
units: +1.05
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 5130
Posted: #118
looks like another solid week, the huge wagers killed you but you still came out on top....will be following this closely to see what week 3 looks like...
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 8426
Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by atlheatholder:

Really looking forward to your week 3 leans, SN - great job you're doing.
 

THX, week three will have a different format, based on adjustments

SN

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2009
Posts: 95
Posted: #120
SN, We appricate all your hard work and dedicated hours you put into this thread.. There was never a doubt about last nights game whether or not the Fins would cover the +16 pts in your 4 team teaser. Keep up the great work.. BEST OF LUCK the rest of the year.
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2007
Posts: 16266
Posted: #121
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

THX, week three will have a different format, based on adjustments

SN

 

 

hope it still inlcudes a 4 team teaser

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 2984
Posted: #122
Fantastic job SN  Much appreciated
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 8002
Posted: #123
Great Job SN !! Thank you for posting !!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 1451
Posted: #124
Is the strategy that you are utilizing this season an initial attempt? Or is this a continuation of a developed strategy from previous seasons?

Great work thus far, and thanks for your frequent posting and responses to all.
 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 8426
Posted: #125
softballmaniac,  thx
 
SN
All Forums | Systems & Strategies
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.