NFL Point Differential Betting System & The Total Dudley YPP Method

Week 6

*Note subject to change - but intial picks - and as i mentioned i'm only going to post Best Picks and 10 pt Margin plays

Best Picks

TB-3
MIA-3
SF-5

*NYJ-3
*MIN: no line yet

Jets and MIN are unofficial - may scratch them

10 pt Margin plays

ARI-4
*BAL-3
*SF-5

According to the numbers - ARI is the only official play - but they looked downright terrible last week - just disgusting.  I made BAL and SF unofficial for now because they were close - like 1-2 points off. 

Using just the 2012 point differential system, I come up with different plays.

Atlanta and AZ as 10 pt plays and Balt., Min, SF and Houston as 5 point differential qualifying plays.

BTW I have Min +2.5 at the Station casinos.

Danrules - yeah - you're right - not sure how I missed ATL, maybe because I don't like them as a play this weekend - I don't think they will cover 9.5, yes the NFL pt system says they will cover, but some other models I using says they won't.

For the sake of tracking I'll include them

Week 6

Best Picks

TB-3
MIA-3
SF-5

*NYJ-3

Jets are unofficial

10 pt Margin plays

ARI-4
ATL-9.5

*BAL-3
*SF-5

*BAL and SF unofficial because they were close - like 1-2 points off.  I left MIN off because they were just over a 5 pt margin

Very good, wasn't sure if I missed something or not. Good luck!

Week 6 - Results

Best Picks

TB-3 (WIN)
MIA-3 (PUSH)
SF-5 (LOSS)

*NYJ-3 (WIN)

Jets are unofficial

10 pt Margin plays

ARI-4 (LOSS)
ATL-9.5 (LOSS)

*BAL-3 (LOSS)
*SF-5 (LOSS)

So not a terrible day for the BEST PICKS - using the consensus of all models - techincially it went 1-1-1, and that's the way i will record it, but if you bought the hook on the MIA game, and took the Jets like I did - you would have went 3-1

The 10 PT PLAYS are a different story - going 0-4 - ugh.....I will continue to track them - but as mentioned filters are needed, even using the 10 pts instead of 5 - I think it will prove a 50-50 model when all is said and done without additional inputs.

Overall Results:

WEEK 4,5,6

Best Plays: 6-5-1
10 pt Margin Plays: 5-7-1

CORRECTION

Overall Results:

WEEK 4,5,6

Best Plays: 6-5-1 (unofficial 1-0)
10 pt Margin Plays: 5-5-1 (unofficial 0-2)

So I added calculating RPI to the spreadhseet - you can download the latest version here.  it essentially does all the calculations for you and will update the data needed for the calcs when you click the "UPDATE" button - you only need to click that button once a week though - basically every tuesday after the games.

Going to keep an eye on the RPI EDGE and see if can be used as a filter.

If you are unfamiliar with RPI or how to caluclate it - check out the 2 articles below

https://www.ehow.com/how-does_5143295_rpi-calculated.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratings_Percentage_Index

Note that I am factoring in home / road wins and losses in my calculations - other methods don't but I figure HF adv in the NFL is important enough to weight the calc.

You can download the updated spreadsheet below

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B5dydT9Oe6JbcDNIbFg5Z3h5SFU

Week 7

Best Picks

CLE+3
NYG-6
BAL+6.5
OAK-4
CHI-5

10 pt Margin plays

CHI-5
TB+2.5

Just for the record - some tough games this week.  I am putting in my bets but goin easy on them

hey Degen did you take the rpi into consideration on any of these plays this week

looks like if you add the filters a play but have over .500 rpi and have a certain number of rpi higher than their opponent could be a possible idea

would leave only play as CHI -5, do you have previous weeks of rpi numbers with your way of calculating?

looks like the filters work

im not really sure how you decide the plays so ill let you post them for next week and then ill put in my two cents

Week 7 - Results

Best Picks

CLE+3 (LOSS)
NYG-6 (LOSS)
BAL+6.5 (LOSS)
OAK-4 (LOSS)
CHI-5 (WIN)

10 pt Margin plays

CHI-5 (WIN)
TB+2.5 (LOSS)

Like I mentioned tough week this week.  But maybe implementing the RPI filter as Burley suggested may help the win rate. 

Some interesting observations - every play aside from BAL would have won on some type of tease.

Well i'll put together this weeks plays and see how it goes for another week.

Overall Results:

WEEK 4,5,6,7

Best Plays: 7-9-1 (unofficial 1-0)
10 pt Margin Plays: 6-6-1 (unofficial 0-2)

Week 8

Best Picks

SD-3
WAS+4
MIA+3
CHI-7

10 pt Margin plays

CHI-7
ATL+3

RPI and NFL Pt system agree

GB-14
ATL+3
CHI-7
NE-7
SD-3
SEA+1
DEN-6
SF-7

So I added plays where RPI and NFL pt system agree for tracking - going to see how those plays work out.

Burley,

Only GB,ATL,CHI,DEN from the list above have an RPI over 500 and a diff of 50 - and the NFL pt system agrees.

The others are slightly off