NHL road trip UNDER

Again my friend, appreciate your work here and agree that playing the entire game "under", straight wagering in particular, will probably not cut it. I will give it a go on a chase though trusting that even at about a 45% hit rate, the chase doesn't get strung out too long. In regards to fading the road team (one of my favourite scenarios), I've played this in the past with mixed results and would caution again on how this is played. Whilst the hit rate is high, the chalk on these plays is often quite heavy and can easily eclipse winnings even a 60-65% hit rate. This season I am playing the fade as a chase against the +$ only. Its a fairly stress-free approach given the prices and to date has yielded 8.6 units on a 36% hit rate...not too shabby. I'll post the plays along with the "under chase" if anyone has an interest.

Wednesday 10/18 result:

Habs/Kings under 5 +125  loss -1U

YTD: -2.76 U

Friday 10/20 play: ***chase begins here with 20u BR***

Nux/Swords under 5.5 -125  risking 1.25U

I'm going to fading the away team and comparing it vs under 2.5 for away team. Since the win % is almost the same whichever one has better odds I'll go with that, but for tongiht I'm fading Canucks and playing ont he Saberes. BOL to everyone 

Friday 10/20 results: duds

UNDER:

Nux/Swords under 5.5 -125  LOSS -1.25U

YTD: -4U

FADE:

Swords PL +190 LOSS -1U

YTD: -1U

Saturday 10/21:

UNDER PLAYS:

Pit/TB   under 6.5 -118 risking 1.7U

Min/CG under 6   -110  risking 1.6U

SJ/NYI  under 5.5-105  risking 1.5U

FADE PLAYS:

Hey Chaser, I like that you are trying to do the PL but when I looked at the odds or how many games end in 1 goal margin and how many over 1 the odds are 48% for 1 goal and 52% at over 1 goal or more. So first you have to win that game and then you have to cover the PL. What my suggestion was, why not creat a -1 PL like we do on MLB by combining the PL and the ML together. This way you can drop the -EV and if you win by 1 you would push and not lose and if you win by 2 you win both but if you lose then you lose both, this way you don't take a beating on the -1 1/2 PL specially like on days like today where you have 3 fav that you are playing (eventhough they aren't that huge fav to begin with)

Saturday 10/21 results:

UNDER PLAYS:

Pit/TB   under 6.5 -118 LOSS -1.7U

Min/CG under 6   -110  PUSH

SJ/NYI  under 5.5-105  LOSS -1.5U

YTD: -6.2U

Tuesday 10/24:

UNDER PLAY:

LAK@OTT  under 5.5 -113 risking 5.2U to win 4.6

Tuesday 10/24 results:

UNDER PLAY:

LAK@OTT  under 5.5 -113  winner +4.6U

YTD: -1.6U

Wednesday 10/25:

UNDER PLAY:

CAL@STL  under 5.5 +100   risking 1U   to win    1U

No  plays today. Next play Fri 10/27 WPG@CBJ and DAL@CGY

Friday 10/27:

UNDER PLAY:

WPG@CBJ  under 6.5 -110   risking  2.2U   to win    2U

Friday 10/27 results:

UNDER PLAY:

WPG@CBJ  under 6.5 -110   winner   +2U

YTD: -0.6U

PIT/WPG not decided yet, but going to assume a PL win and an UNDER loss. So, follow up plays are:

WSH@CGY UN 5.5 +106  risking 1.9U to win      2U

            CGY PL        +195  risking    1U to win 1.95U

Sunday 10/29 results:

UNDER PLAY:

PIT@WPG UNDER 6 +100   loss -1U

YTD: -0.6U

FADE PLAY:

WPG PL +250                   winner  +3U

YTD: +4.15U

UNDER PLAY:

WSH@CGY UN 5.5 +106  winner  +2U

YTD: +1.4U

FADE PLAY:       

CGY PL        +195                      loss -1U

YTD: +3.15U

Tuesday 10/31:

UNDER PLAYS:

VGS@NYR  under 6 +100   risking    1U   to win    1U   AZ@DET  under 6 -107   risking    1.1U   to win    1U

Tuesday 10/31 results:

UNDER PLAYS:

VGS@NYR  under 6 +100   loss    -1U   

AZ@DET  under 6 -107       loss  -1.1U

YTD: -0.7U

FADE PLAYS:

NYR             PL        +125  winner   + 1.5U

DET             PL        +165   winner  +1.65U

YTD: +6.3U

***No plays today. Next plays Thur 11/2 PHI@STL, PIT@CGY, TOR@LAK***

Thursday 11/2:

UNDER PLAYS:

PHI @ STL  UN 5.5 +100 risking 2.1U to win 2.1U

PIT @ CGY UN 6     -115 risking 2.3U to win    2U

FADE PLAYS:

STL  PL +170 risking 1U to win   1.7U

CGY PL +240 risking 1U to win 2.40U

***will add TOR @ LAK plays before the puck drops***