5-0 with this one so far this year, so thought I'd post it. I play the UNDER when the visitor has just played on the road the previous night. Hawks, Habs, Flyers, Blues, and Knights have all played B2B games and the second game of their respective trips have been well under. I do not chase this scenario, just SU wagers. Will discontinue if it falls ten units.
Thurs 10/12 play:
pens/bolts UNDER 6 +108 1U
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
5-0 with this one so far this year, so thought I'd post it. I play the UNDER when the visitor has just played on the road the previous night. Hawks, Habs, Flyers, Blues, and Knights have all played B2B games and the second game of their respective trips have been well under. I do not chase this scenario, just SU wagers. Will discontinue if it falls ten units.
Good find bro. You got 10 more games left for the season. With a Chase you can clean house bro..here's a link for the games this season remaining for this trend:
Good find bro. You got 10 more games left for the season. With a Chase you can clean house bro..here's a link for the games this season remaining for this trend:
have you thought about playing the under TT for the team on back-to-back road games no rest? Intuitively would seem to make more sense. based on the SDQL results and assuming every TT is 2.5 it would be 6-6
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have you thought about playing the under TT for the team on back-to-back road games no rest? Intuitively would seem to make more sense. based on the SDQL results and assuming every TT is 2.5 it would be 6-6
have you thought about playing the under TT for the team on back-to-back road games no rest? Intuitively would seem to make more sense. based on the SDQL results and assuming every TT is 2.5 it would be 6-6
You are absolutely correct! The percentages are higher if you play goals under 2.5 vs playing the Under. When I looked at the Under I didn't see the amount of pushes, I just looked at over/unders but when you consider the pushes the % is actually under 50% for every year. Here's the query that compares both systems vs eachother: TT under is the better choice. Click on the below link or use the query below that:
A(goals<2.5) as '% of TT under 2.5',A(U) as '% of Under'@ A and p:A and rest=0 and season=2016,2015,2014,2013
Let me know what you guys think
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Quote Originally Posted by smurph_daddy:
have you thought about playing the under TT for the team on back-to-back road games no rest? Intuitively would seem to make more sense. based on the SDQL results and assuming every TT is 2.5 it would be 6-6
You are absolutely correct! The percentages are higher if you play goals under 2.5 vs playing the Under. When I looked at the Under I didn't see the amount of pushes, I just looked at over/unders but when you consider the pushes the % is actually under 50% for every year. Here's the query that compares both systems vs eachother: TT under is the better choice. Click on the below link or use the query below that:
sorry the thread got cut off when I posted the link. here it is again.
When considering the pushes the % is under 50% when 1st looked at the results I just looked at over/under but once you get the pushed you actually drop the % before 50% so TT under is the better choice averaging around 55% for the past 4 years.
don't use the link because it's cut off. Go to killersports.com and choose NHL , then SDQL query page and then past the query I put on there to compare the stats.
A(goals<2.5) as '% of TT under 2.5',A(U) as '% of Under'@ A and p:A and rest=0 and season=2016,2015,2014,2013
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sorry the thread got cut off when I posted the link. here it is again.
When considering the pushes the % is under 50% when 1st looked at the results I just looked at over/under but once you get the pushed you actually drop the % before 50% so TT under is the better choice averaging around 55% for the past 4 years.
don't use the link because it's cut off. Go to killersports.com and choose NHL , then SDQL query page and then past the query I put on there to compare the stats.
A(goals<2.5) as '% of TT under 2.5',A(U) as '% of Under'@ A and p:A and rest=0 and season=2016,2015,2014,2013
I did notice that so far this year the Unders would've been better choice because over 2.5 has been hitting at a high rate but that will drop down to below 50% in the next couple of weeks. if you comparing trends from year to year I would say go with the TT, it has worked for the past 4 years
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I did notice that so far this year the Unders would've been better choice because over 2.5 has been hitting at a high rate but that will drop down to below 50% in the next couple of weeks. if you comparing trends from year to year I would say go with the TT, it has worked for the past 4 years
Good input and observations men. While the percentages do appear stronger for the TT play, the juice is concerning as it seems to be priced in the -115 to -120 range. The "under" play so far (including today's) is priced much more favorably...average price through 9 games is +108. Given this, I think either play yields a fairly small profit, if any profit at all by straight wagering. Chasing the way to go here ya think?
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Good input and observations men. While the percentages do appear stronger for the TT play, the juice is concerning as it seems to be priced in the -115 to -120 range. The "under" play so far (including today's) is priced much more favorably...average price through 9 games is +108. Given this, I think either play yields a fairly small profit, if any profit at all by straight wagering. Chasing the way to go here ya think?
However I looked further and what even hits at higher percentage is fading the away team. it hits around 52-56% playing on the home team. Playing under the whole game is just not going to cut it. to each his own. good luck
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No, SDQL doesnt' have the odds for the Under 2.5.
However I looked further and what even hits at higher percentage is fading the away team. it hits around 52-56% playing on the home team. Playing under the whole game is just not going to cut it. to each his own. good luck
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