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I have created a system in an excel document that has taken me various days. It is a result of the following statistics.
- Goaltender GAA
- Goaltender SV %
- Shots per game
- Predicted shots taken before a goal will be scored
- Goal Differentials
- Goals scored by team in comparison to the NHL average
- Goals allowed by team in comparison to the NHL average
- Home win % (if home team)
- Away win % (if away team)
- Past 10 record
Each of these statistics has its own function in the formula. To explain the intricacies of the formula would take hours.
Essentially it is as follows:
- Avg SOG's to score a goal is a factor of avg SOG's. Once that number is derived it is manipulated by use of the goaltenders SV % to determine the goals that should be allowed with respect to the goalie vs shots factor.
- A score is then determined for the amount of goals scored compared to league average. A score above 1 indicates a high scoring team. A score below 1 indicates a low scoring team.
- A score is then determined for the amount of goals allowed compared to league average. A score above 1 indicates a team that gives up a lot of goals. A score below 1 indicates a team that gives up few goals.
- Past 10 games and situational record (I.E. home record for home team, away record for away team) effect the equation at a factor of 10%.
- Differential is then factored in as well.
This is a very basic outline of the system and does not even begin to communicate the amount of work that has been put in but thus far this season the system has yet to record a losing night. It predicts winning % for each team as well as the total goals in a given game.
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