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NHL System - Algorithmic

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Posts: 158
 
Prospect
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Posts: 484
Posted: #26
FLA (LUONGO) @ LAK (QUICK)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.166154435
Away Predicted Scoring 2.425878311
Home Chance of Victory 41.91206831
Away Chance of Victory 58.08793169
Total Goals Estimated Value 4.592032747




PHI (NEUVIRTH) @ WPG (PAVELEC)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.442055119
Away Predicted Scoring 2.497388337
Home Chance of Victory 47.73990874
Away Chance of Victory 52.26009126
Total Goals Estimated Value 4.939443456




OTT (HAMMOND) @ CAR (WARD)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.471332093
Away Predicted Scoring 2.932411819
Home Chance of Victory 47.48907511
Away Chance of Victory 52.51092489
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.403743912




TOR (REIMER) @ WAS (HOLTBY)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.705595547
Away Predicted Scoring 2.403647854
Home Chance of Victory 68.46926294
Away Chance of Victory 31.53073706
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.109243401
 
Prospect
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Posts: 484
Posted: #27
BOS (GUSTAVSSON) @ MTL (CONDON)
Home Predicted Scoring 3.11413928
Away Predicted Scoring 2.64965323
Home Chance of Victory 62.2666905
Away Chance of Victory 37.7333095
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.76379251




STL (ALLEN) @ NAS (RINNE)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.742385047
Away Predicted Scoring 2.592871762
Home Chance of Victory 48.07016438
Away Chance of Victory 51.92983562
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.33525681




TBL (BISHOP) @ MIN (DUBNYK)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.706347716
Away Predicted Scoring 2.894555724
Home Chance of Victory 42.74347493
Away Chance of Victory 57.25652507
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.600903441




NYR (LUNDQVIST) @ AZ (SMITH)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.207618305
Away Predicted Scoring 2.878784037
Home Chance of Victory 37.02052524
Away Chance of Victory 62.97947476
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.086402343
 
Prospect
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Posts: 484
Posted: #28
PITT (FLEURY) @ CAL (RAMO)
Home Predicted Scoring 1.907783384
Away Predicted Scoring 3.003412571
Home Chance of Victory 13.29882816
Away Chance of Victory 86.70117184
Total Goals Estimated Value 4.911195955




ANA (ANDERSEN) @ SJS (JONES)
Home Predicted Scoring 1.960923358
Away Predicted Scoring 2.133098345
Home Chance of Victory 49.93190285
Away Chance of Victory 50.06809715
Total Goals Estimated Value 4.094021703
 
Veteran
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Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 1150
Posted: #29
I love the analytical approach and the use of excel. I would say I am proficient at automating anything in excel but I have yet to "crack" the key analytical metrics to reliably handicap a game.

Good luck and I sent you a friend request.
 
Prospect
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Posts: 484
Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

I love the analytical approach and the use of excel. I would say I am proficient at automating anything in excel but I have yet to "crack" the key analytical metrics to reliably handicap a game.

Good luck and I sent you a friend request.

Accepted. Looking forward to chatting. 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 484
Posted: #31
Sides: 6-5
Totals: 3-5-3
Overall: 9-10-3

Including predictions of 

STL win as an underdog
Flyers win as a big underdog
Ducks win as a big underdog

--

By no means is this the type of day I aspire to. It will get better, stick with me.
 
Banned
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Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 8426
Posted: #32

"it will get better, stick with me"

I really don't understand this statement, you just capped 3 winning 'dogs' all where shutout WINS; 2 hit on the [-1.5] (reverse) PL containing exceptional value, and you don't aspire to it? can't wait until your inspiration peaks, my particular form concerning the NHL is disciplined towards dogs, and [-1.5] PL & RPL seldom if any do I take a full fledged favorite that's not attached to the PL, meaning, in my arena, you went 3-0 with dogs, 2-1 on the RPL, but your not in my arena, fortunately your dog plays are, appreciate your effort in the coincide of your work...well done

 
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Posts: 8426
Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

I love the analytical approach and the use of excel. I would say I am proficient at automating anything in excel but I have yet to "crack" the key analytical metrics to reliably handicap a game.

Good luck and I sent you a friend request.
DG, you have everything in order on the analytical side, to reliably capp a game consist of one major factor, it's called 'situational-play' I am sure you are well in tuned with this formulated system, attaching statistics to a situation (sabermetrics) to achieve a projected outcome...This holds true not only in sports betting, but in corporate marketing projections as well, think about it.....
 
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Posts: 8426
Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I'm especially interested in games where the dog is predicted to win. A good dog win yesterday on NJ. 
after yesterday's results, your interest level should be up a notch, and your adrenaline level rushing.. let's see, if my calculations are correct? that comes to 4-0 on dog plays in the last two days. have a good one Dan....
 
Prospect
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Posts: 78
Posted: #35
Interesting post, Pan.  GL!
 
Prospect
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 484
Posted: #36
Thanking everyone for their support. Especially sports_Network who pointed out a trend to me that I was unaware of... Every dog pick thus far has cashed. This is interesting, I'm hopeful that the trend continues. Good luck today everyone, here are the numbers for today.


DAL (LEHTONEN) @ DET (HOWARD)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.766762846
Away Predicted Scoring 2.444643665
Home Chance of Victory 53.02751619
Away Chance of Victory 46.97248381
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.211406511




VAN (MILLER) @ NJD (SCHNEIDER)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.393123437
Away Predicted Scoring 2.293446393
Home Chance of Victory 57.36590398
Away Chance of Victory 42.63409602
Total Goals Estimated Value 4.68656983




BOS (RASK) @ NYI (HALAK)
Home Predicted Scoring 3.43155537
Away Predicted Scoring 2.80832232
Home Chance of Victory 65.43925147
Away Chance of Victory 34.56074853
Total Goals Estimated Value 6.23987769




EDM (TALBOT) @ CHI (CRAWFORD)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.954199758
Away Predicted Scoring 2.413051385
Home Chance of Victory 67.36095061
Away Chance of Victory 32.63904939
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.367251142
 
Prospect
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Posts: 484
Posted: #37
Also, just to be clear, the numbers that I was seeing on a consistent basis during the testing phase was 70+%. This is what I want.
 
Prospect
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Posts: 131
Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by Pandalicious:

Sides: 6-5
Totals: 3-5-3
Overall: 9-10-3

Including predictions of 

STL win as an underdog
Flyers win as a big underdog
Ducks win as a big underdog

--

By no means is this the type of day I aspire to. It will get better, stick with me.

All the work you've put into this and can't keep track of the units won or lost?
 
Prospect
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Posts: 484
Posted: #39
Sides: 2-2 (with another dog victory).
Totals: 1-3.

The system has yet to inaccurately predict a dog... I'm starting to wonder if this is fluke or a legitimate trend.
 
Prospect
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Posts: 484
Posted: #40
AZ (LINDBACK) @ ANA (ANDERSEN)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.196307704
Away Predicted Scoring 2.294785753
Home Chance of Victory 46.50831276
Away Chance of Victory 53.49168724
Total Goals Estimated Value 4.491093456
 
Captain
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Joined: May, 2012
Posts: 5921
Posted: #41
Another dog winner! 
Stay disciplined and manage your bankroll
 
Prospect
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Posts: 484
Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Another dog winner! 

I bet this one big tonight...

5-0 on dogs... Very interesting.
 
Veteran
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Joined: Aug, 2013
Posts: 1033
Posted: #43
Your ability locate the barking dogs is amazing so far. May this continue for you.
Just out of interest do you bet a side and a total for every game?
 
Prospect
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Posts: 484
Posted: #44
STL (ALLEN) @ NJD (SCHNEIDER)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.394851289
Away Predicted Scoring 2.502371058
Home Chance of Victory 50.39553222
Away Chance of Victory 49.60446778
Total Goals Estimated Value 4.897222347




CAR (WARD) @ NYR (LUNDQVIST)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.695350389
Away Predicted Scoring 2.163310174
Home Chance of Victory 68.98059759
Away Chance of Victory 31.01940241
Total Goals Estimated Value 4.858660562




COL (BERRA) @ PHI (NEUVIRTH)
Home Predicted Scoring 1.868790863
Away Predicted Scoring 1.896697148
Home Chance of Victory 52.50893398
Away Chance of Victory 47.49106602
Total Goals Estimated Value 3.76548801




VAN (MARKSTROM) @ CBJ (BOBROVSKY)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.877998678
Away Predicted Scoring 3.361469397
Home Chance of Victory 33.95765664
Away Chance of Victory 66.04234336
Total Goals Estimated Value 6.239468075




CAL (RAMO) @ FLA (LUONGO)
Home Predicted Scoring 3.208374451
Away Predicted Scoring 2.421725925
Home Chance of Victory 69.46464847
Away Chance of Victory 30.53535153
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.630100376
 
Prospect
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Posts: 484
Posted: #45
BUF (JOHNSON) @ TBL (VASILEVSKIY)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.8333884
Away Predicted Scoring 2.153621846
Home Chance of Victory 55.48210733
Away Chance of Victory 44.51789267
Total Goals Estimated Value 4.987010246




WAS (HOLTBY) @ DET (MRAZEK)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.802580728
Away Predicted Scoring 2.63466267
Home Chance of Victory 41.09535126
Away Chance of Victory 58.90464874
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.437243398




OTT (ANDERSON) @ NAS (RINNE)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.539127493
Away Predicted Scoring 2.567138533
Home Chance of Victory 51.02145441
Away Chance of Victory 48.97854559
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.106266026




WPG (PAVELEC) @ MIN (DUBNYK)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.773608054
Away Predicted Scoring 2.737085304
Home Chance of Victory 45.00273233
Away Chance of Victory 54.99726767
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.510693358




TOR (REIMER) @ DAL (NIEMI)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.816853129
Away Predicted Scoring 2.913939065
Home Chance of Victory 53.83637584
Away Chance of Victory 46.16362416
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.730792194
 
Prospect
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Posts: 484
Posted: #46
BUF (JOHNSON) @ TBL (VASILEVSKIY)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.8333884
Away Predicted Scoring 2.153621846
Home Chance of Victory 55.48210733
Away Chance of Victory 44.51789267
Total Goals Estimated Value 4.987010246




WAS (HOLTBY) @ DET (MRAZEK)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.802580728
Away Predicted Scoring 2.63466267
Home Chance of Victory 41.09535126
Away Chance of Victory 58.90464874
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.437243398




OTT (ANDERSON) @ NAS (RINNE)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.539127493
Away Predicted Scoring 2.567138533
Home Chance of Victory 51.02145441
Away Chance of Victory 48.97854559
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.106266026




WPG (PAVELEC) @ MIN (DUBNYK)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.773608054
Away Predicted Scoring 2.737085304
Home Chance of Victory 45.00273233
Away Chance of Victory 54.99726767
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.510693358




TOR (REIMER) @ DAL (NIEMI)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.816853129
Away Predicted Scoring 2.913939065
Home Chance of Victory 53.83637584
Away Chance of Victory 46.16362416
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.730792194
 
Prospect
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Posts: 484
Posted: #47
Accidentally double posted above. My apologies... 


AZ (SMITH) @ LAK (QUICK)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.685154954
Away Predicted Scoring 2.509892944
Home Chance of Victory 51.69980076
Away Chance of Victory 48.30019924
Total Goals Estimated Value 5.195047898




NYI (HALAK) @ SJS (JONES)
Home Predicted Scoring 2.133811636
Away Predicted Scoring 2.33171235
Home Chance of Victory 41.59694031
Away Chance of Victory 58.40305969
Total Goals Estimated Value 4.465523986
 
Prospect
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Posts: 191
Posted: #48
3-0 on the 60%+ confidence sides. That's worth something to keep an eye on!
 
Prospect
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Posts: 484
Posted: #49
STL @ NJD
SIDE = NO PLAY (Simply because the margin was literally less than 1%)
UNDER 5


CAR @ NYR
NYR
UNDER 5


COL @ PHI
PHI
UNDER 5.5


VAN @ CBJ
VAN
OVER 5.5


CAL @ FLA
FLA
OVER 5.5


BUF @ TBL
TBL 
UNDER 5 - PUSH


WAS @ DET
WAS 
OVER 5


WPG @ MIN
WPG
OVER 5

TOR @ DAL
DAL
OVER 5.5


AZ @ LAK
LAK
OVER 5 PUSH


NYI @ SJS
NYI  (ANOTHER DOG PICK)
UNDER 5.5


Final record today: 10-9-2 + A DOG WIN ON NYI
 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 484
Posted: #50
FORGOT:

OTT @ NAS
NAS 
OVER 5.5 

Final record today was 12-9-2 + A DOG WIN
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